The way I see it, all "civil movement" initiatives thus far have been hugely disappointing.
"Thawraaa" is all well and good in the moment, but it is all a waste of time and energy if it doesn't mature into a fresh, innovative and well-defined movement that seeks to challenge the status quo intelligently. Unfortunately, we never saw that after the 2015 "tol3et ri7etkon" movement. We didn't see it after the 2018 elections, which should have been a launching pad for new parties into the Lebanese consciousness. Even after Oct. 17, as fertile a ground as you're ever going to get, no new parties materialized. Instead, we have crybabies on Twitter and thinly-veiled partisan influencers scheming for a coup. We have directionless anger as a result and an almost complete absence of political productivity from those who should be rallying behind them a people hungry for change.
To be honest, I have very little faith in the so-called "thawra", not because of conspiracies about embassies or whatever, but because those who were expected to emerge and lead have instead proven to be as lazy, incompetent and devoid of vision as the rotten political establishment. The movement, in its current form, has been nothing but an extension of the system, not a challenge to it...
That leaves me in a bit of a dilemma. I am an FPM supporter, but I believe the system needs to be changed. Years of futile work for reforms have gotten us nowhere. I would love to see someone challenge this system. I would happily vote for that someone. That someone could be newcomer, or it could be a revitalized FPM... Alas, it doesn't seem likely on both counts, right now.
As things stand, I might vote FPM again or I might not. I genuinely support Bassil's reformist politics, his work ethic and his determination, but I'm not entirely convinced he or Aoun still have any winning cards to play. I also believe in change and bringing in new blood, but the "revolution" has done nothing at all to convince me of its capacity to be anything beyond an unknowing political tool in the hands of the establishment. I can only hope viable options will emerge come election day... Otherwise, they can all rot in this system of fatal mediocrity without my help.
In my opinion, getting stuck in the civil society corner is a huge blunder. As if evolving into a political party with ambition to rule, in order to make things happens is a bad thing. Screaming around is not gonna get things done, in my opinion. People should organize and strive for governmental power. Things do not change just because of the fact, that someone is screaming around. Get organized, get elected, get to power in order to change the system and through that the people in charge to be able to make things head for the better. Civil society is just like an opposition which is not a goal in itself. The goal is always based on getting to power, to make things change. Concrete change is not words, it's action.
If they are going to dip their feet in the political pool, make it at least for one specific goal, which, in my assessment, should be the creation of a new political system and civil personal status and inheritance laws. The problem here is that many want the results without ever having to play the political game, which is their main gripe with FPM. So, many don't understand that you don't need to sacrifice a project while dealing with the obstacles of governing (with the corrupt, especially), and that participating in governance doesn't preclude one from proposing and enacting systemic change in due time. Playing the political game and making concessions doesn't necessarily mean one abandons all political projects/goals/principles.
Using MMFD as the most prominent model for now, I think it's obvious that their goal is to gain some parliamentary presence, as per several MMFD members and officials. That is, they're trying to get involved in the game as much as any other party is involved in it now. If that's the case, their main battles will be, according to the data from the 2018 elections and an assessment of their traction/presence currently, in districts where FPM is the strongest among several weak political actors. This is a recipe for failure for the obvious reason of strengthening more powerful parties with solid electoral bases.
Can you maybe elaborate why what mmfd is trying to do is a recipe for failure and what they should be doing better?