October 17 Revolution

What do you think will happen next, after Hariri's resignation?

  • Stalemate - No govt will be formed

    Votes: 40 51.3%
  • New mini-government of specialists will be formed in less than 10 days

    Votes: 20 25.6%
  • Similar government with Hariri PM again

    Votes: 15 19.2%
  • Civil War

    Votes: 22 28.2%

  • Total voters
    78
Rafidi

Rafidi

Legendary Member
you should be realistic, wishful thinking does not give a true picture of the county’s situation.

Lebanon is a federal country, an awkward federation of sects instead of being a federation of states like other multicultural countries. As long as the Lebanese system is based on this weird Federation of Sects systems, the rule of true majority ruling, and true minority sitting in the opposition will definitely not work. When Sanioura tried to lead a full 14 March gouvernement (when HA and allies resigned) the country collapsed. The Mikati 8 March Governement was a failure for the same reasons. Diab trying to rule without the Sunni and half of the Christians is doomed to fail within the current Lebanese system.

As long as the country doesn’t move to a complete secular system where religion will be completely forbidden in the public space, or to a federal system where the central government will not follow a sectarian order, Lebanon will need national unity gouvernements. The reason is easy to understand: Above the Law And the Constitution you have the national pact of 43, later enforced with the Taëf Agreement. According to this, the source and Legitimacy of the system is to be found in the concord and harmony between Sects.

Now I agree that the Diab Governement is gonna remain till the 2022 parliamentary elections. But the current situation, the status quo is also going to remain until 2022. I don’t see any major changes that will happen from now to the next MP elections or even the next presidential elections. When a new parliament will come in 2022, a national unity Governement will be formed that might have a minimum of legitimacy And trust to negotiate with foreign countries.

The current government will deal more or less with the day-to-day matters and businesses for the next couple of years, until a another flawed deal will be found between Sects following the next elections.
Both what you are saying is correct and what I also said is also correct.

For the reason you presented, the majority camp in parliament offered a figure (Saad Hariri) from the minority camp in parliament to head the govt because he represents majority of his sectarian flock. He chose to resign first under compulsion while kidnapped in a foreign country and later on rescinded his resignation after his liberation and return to Lebanon. Then, after protests, he resigned again and chose not to form a new govt except under certain conditions. Of course, those who would nominate him and have majority of MPs in parliament refused his conditions. His conditions are exactly what contradict the spirit of consensus you explained in your post. If you give in to Saad's conditions, and you have Hezballah out of the govt and Gebran Basil out and you allow Saad to be the only person to nominate and appoint ministers for all the sectarian, then he automatically is the president of Lebanon with presidential powers. That is in contradiction of Taef. And if the majority in parliament agree to these terms and accept to be out of any govt or its decisions, then it is political suicide for them.

I dont know what you meant here:

"When a new parliament will come in 2022, a national unity Governement will be formed that might have a minimum of legitimacy And trust to negotiate with foreign countries."

Are you saying the current parliament lacks legitimacy? If so, why? Are you sure if there is election today the same majority would not return? Of course it will. I will vote for Hezballah again. One of their MPs is even from my village. I'm voting for him.
 
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  • SAVO

    SAVO

    Member
    He should become a lecturer in the Lebanese University and offer free teaching service.

    As far as I am concerned, a new era started in Lebanon after the May 2018 election. And since then the enemies within and outside have been restless. The greatest mistake done was Michel Aoun allowing a loser to become PM and allowing Saad to become PM even without having a parliamentary majority. This is someone who acts through a remote control that is outside of Lebanon. When the resign button is pressed, he resigns. And they're playing with our country, our future and our lives. The reason why the best thing that happened to Lebanon is Diab's government through an independent and national nomination by the parliamentary majority which represents the will of the Lebanese people in their majority. Thank you thawra.

    Find solutions and get the Chinese in asap.
    Chinese wont built your entire economy..
    What they will do is to study the possibility to invest in some projects if they find some economic utility.
    Ut the political internal caos and corruption is a big factor to take into consideration when it come to the valutation of the risk around the investment..and second factor are the competitive factor.
    Chinese bought already a port in greece and greek workers had lot of strike against the new chinese padron ..and they were supported by the greek comunist party.. the condition of work , salaries werent the best ..on european standard.
    I am not against chinese investment..from an economic standpoint and here nasrallah is selling air because its a political choice and not economic.. economic choices is based on totally different standards and nasralah.or is ignoring that, or he have bad people around him who doesnt understand economy.
     
    SAVO

    SAVO

    Member
    كشف مصدر بارز في الاكثرية النيابية الحالية لـ”نداء الوطن” أن لا ازمة مشتقات نفطية أو مازوت في لبنان، بل كلّ ما في القصّة إمعانٌ من الطبقة السياسية في “الدعس” على وجع الناس والمساهمة في إطالة معاناتهم وفقرهم وجوعهم، والتعامل بأسلوبٍ لاأخلاقيّ مع ما يعانيه المواطن.

    ولخّص المصدر “الفضيحة” بالتالي:
    أولاً: تصل شحنات المازوت الى منشآت النفط في الزهراني وطرابلس ويتمّ إفراغها في خزانات هذه المنشآت.
    ثانياً: يفترض أن توزّع إدارة المنشآت هذه المادة على الموزعين وفق ما ينص عليه القانون.

    ثالثاً: ما يحصل هو عكس ذلك. فالقيمون على المنشآت، ووفق تعليمات الجهات السياسية التي ينتمون إليها، يتولّون عملية التوزيع انتقائياً استناداً الى المحسوبيات.
    السيناريو في منشآت الزهراني هو كالتالي: يصل الموزع فيدفع عند المدخل الخوة اللازمة للدخول، وتصل الى خمسة ملايين ليرة، ثم يتقدّم للحصول على مادة المازوت، فإذا أراد عشرين طناً يلزمونه بالتوقيع على كشوفٍ باستلام الكمية، فيما يحصل على ربعها أي 5 أطنان فقط، وتوزّع مافيا المنشآت الـ15 الباقية في السوق السوداء بأسعارٍ مرتفعة.
    ووصلت الأمور حد الصدام في منشآت الزهراني كون أحد الأطراف يسيطر كلياً على هذه المنشآت، فيمعن القيّمون على المرفق في اذلال الناس وابتزازهم وتوجيه إهاناتٍ لهم، ما استدعى تدخلاً من “حزب الله” فعقد اجتماعاً لوضع حدّ لهذه الممارسات، لكن من دون جدوى.
    فضيحة أخرى كشفها المصدر تمثلت في مداهمة جهازٍ أمني إدارة منشآت الزهراني ومصادرة الوثائق المبرهنة للغش والتزوير وتجارة السوق السوداء، فتلقت القوة المداهمة قبل خروجها من المكان اتصالاً من أعلى مرجعية سياسية طلبت من رئيس الجهاز إقفال الملف واعادة وثائق الادانة، فكان له ما أراد وعاد القيّمون على المنشآت الى ابتزازهم وسرقاتهم المعهودة.
    ويبدو أن الأمر الى تصادمٍ أكيد. وليس مستبعداً ان تتم مهاجمة المنشآت بعدما طفح الكيل بالناس من الظلم اللاحق بهم والإذلال الدائم من ممارسات تمعن في دعم السرقات وعدم محاسبة مرتكبيها.
    كلمات مفتاحية:
    الزهرانيطرابلسلبنان
    المصدر:

    نداء الوطن
     
    Nonan

    Nonan

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Yalla tamem :) you will be in power soon!
    Who is “you”? Do you believe FPM is popular these days? Even with كنعان stunts?
    I have always been an anti-LF (and still am), an anti- Berri, Joumblatt and Hariri. Having lived trough these past three months, I don’t see FPM as a party (and some of its MPs) as an alternative or even frankly any better. Kan3an is as bad as Hariri or Berri cronies, with betrayal on top.
     
    Walidos

    Walidos

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Who is “you”? Do you believe FPM is popular these days? Even with كنعان stunts?
    I have always been an anti-LF (and still am), an anti- Berri, Joumblatt and Hariri. Having lived trough these past three months, I don’t see FPM as a party (and some of its MPs) as an alternative or even frankly any better. Kan3an is as bad as Hariri or Berri cronies, with betrayal on top.
    You is whomever @AtheistForYeezus supports :) in all cases not FPM... so given your post you should also be happy....!
     
    Lebnaouneh

    Lebnaouneh

    Well-Known Member
    Who is “you”? Do you believe FPM is popular these days? Even with كنعان stunts?
    I have always been an anti-LF (and still am), an anti- Berri, Joumblatt and Hariri. Having lived trough these past three months, I don’t see FPM as a party (and some of its MPs) as an alternative or even frankly any better. Kan3an is as bad as Hariri or Berri cronies, with betrayal on top.
    When Kenaan will walk out on FPM, he would be walking out on an empty room. He would be the last one.
     
    Nonan

    Nonan

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    When Kenaan will walk out on FPM, he would be walking out on an empty room. He would be the last one.
    Id rather FPM walks out on Kan3an given his behavior / performance. I’d have gained some respect for the party
     
    Walidos

    Walidos

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Beautifully said. Sums up FPM supporters (including those who are too shy to admit they're FPM supporters like @Walidos)
    Shy? Shame on you :) I don’t hide behind an internet persona. I praise FPM where it is due and criticise them as well where it is due.
    I do remain fair however, and I support plans/projects/laws that are beneficial for the country and the economy, whether FPM propose them or someone else.
    This concept you cannot fathom, you and a vast majority of lebanese people who support a person or party: if you support them, nothing they do can be wrong, if you don’t, nothing they do can be right...

    This whole census asks the wrong questions to start with, but hey, rejoice, you will be in power soon :)
     
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