October 17 Revolution

What do you think will happen next, after Hariri's resignation?

  • Stalemate - No govt will be formed

    Votes: 42 51.2%
  • New mini-government of specialists will be formed in less than 10 days

    Votes: 21 25.6%
  • Similar government with Hariri PM again

    Votes: 15 18.3%
  • Civil War

    Votes: 24 29.3%

  • Total voters
    82

The_FPMer

Well-Known Member
A bold misinterpretation. I did not address the caliber of their power, neither then nor currently. I just said they were fools for antagonizing Aoun instead of embracing him.
Mbala you did when you say that Aoun had no choice but to ally with HA because M14 were out to completely marginalize him.
Now you're exaggerating the power of the west over internal politics.
No, it's the truth.
The MoU was well understood by the international powers from start. Except for the Americans who are engaged on the israelis side in a regional chess game, most western countries don't care. They themselves have varying relationships with Iran and indirectly, sometimes directly, with HA. The MoU didn't start to negatively reflect on Aoun internationally until the Americans, with Trump at the helm, decided to dump the Iranian nuclear deal. Pompeo used his last days at the office to shoot one last bullet at Iran via Bassil in Lebanon.
HAHA, no. Go back to Wikileaks, American ambassador was baffled since 2006 and told it to Aoun and his MPs on numerous occasions. Moreover, Aoun started blasting the Americans and French on numerous occasions.
This is Real Politics. Could also be interpreted as Aoun had a peaceful closure plan in mind of the arms issue, plus some kind of reconciliation attempt between shia and christians plus an entry to the political executive arena.
Sugar coat it all you want, he switched all his principles for short term gains. Had Aoun practiced realpolitik he would have been weaved alliances with both HA and later M14, when they realize that he's an immovable object. Instead he merged with the Iran-Syria axis and started defending them while constantly scorning the West. This is not pragmatism, this is silly myopic politics.
An Aoun led united Christian front would have automagically welded a solid national muslim alliance against it. Didn't I already tell you to take this to the bank, but beware, a Swiss bank?
And I agree every time, but to succeed it needed other Christian players and an irrational Aoun thinking he can get back from the Muslims what they took from him if only he screeched hard enough. Christians lost the demographic and economic battle, get on with it and start effectively build from the inside till you have enough leverage to change the reality on the ground. Aoun's hostile mindless antics would naturally unite Muslims and the West against him.
 

My Moria Moon

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
Mbala you did when you say that Aoun had no choice but to ally with HA because M14 were out to completely marginalize him.

Do not confuse matters, I know you're good at these things. M14 did attempt to marginalize Aoun and isolate him politically. I did not measure their work effect in joules or in ampere for me to address the magnitude of their real power which you think is not much. They did form an anti-Aoun front, and at the time it happened, they triggered his defense mechanism against their political attack. Ma badda ejtihad kteer.

No, it's the truth.

In that case, explain. How much influence has the west on non-puppet personalities, like Aoun, when it comes to internal Lebanese political affairs.

HAHA, no. Go back to Wikileaks, American ambassador was baffled since 2006 and told it to Aoun and his MPs on numerous occasions. Moreover, Aoun started blasting the Americans and French on numerous occasions.

LOL, you're funny, bass kabbir 3a2lak. Enno do you really need Wikileaks to know that the American ambassador 2abba3it ma3o men Aoun 2006? Or was it rather since1989 2ela m2ab3a ma3on menno? Ma I already wrote in my previous reply.".. except for the Americans who are engaged on the israelis side in a regional chess game..

I also explained when the real outburst came ".. The MoU didn't start to negatively reflect on Aoun internationally until the Americans, with Trump at the helm, decided to dump the Iranian nuclear deal. Pompeo used his last days at the office to shoot one last bullet at Iran via Bassil in Lebanon." Before that, all was business as usual.

But for the sake of probing your mind on this specific subject since you seem to pay much attention to it, what do you expect Aoun would have gained from the Americans, if no MoU was signed? Don't tell me Bassil would have escaped their sanctions because khwasre ma btet7ammal.. :lol:

Sugar coat it all you want, he switched all his principles for short term gains. Had Aoun practiced realpolitik he would have been weaved alliances with both HA and later M14, when they realize that he's an immovable object. Instead he merged with the Iran-Syria axis and started defending them while constantly scorning the West. This is not pragmatism, this is silly myopic politics.

And I agree every time, but to succeed it needed other Christian players and an irrational Aoun thinking he can get back from the Muslims what they took from him if only he screeched hard enough. Christians lost the demographic and economic battle, get on with it and start effectively build from the inside till you have enough leverage to change the reality on the ground. Aoun's hostile mindless antics would naturally unite Muslims and the West against him.

In one tongue you blame him for ditching his principles by allying to HA.. In the same sentence you advise him to weave alliance with both HA and M14. Prose and poetry. And no he's not constantly scorning the west.

To conclude for the tenth time, I am not discussing the end results with you, you know that I know that the MoU didn't produce the desired end result we hoped for, stamping Aoun in the Iran-Axis, HA's perspective, against the world. But also that it is too simplistic of you to shovel over the entire blame for the MoU on only Aoun's free will while absolving the actions of the M14 bandits, the then prevailing conditions and our own recent and past history from any influence on his decision.
 
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My Moria Moon

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
yes I’m a goat, as in greatest of all time ;)

wtf :wideyed:, but I didn't have you in mind. I had someone else goaty you love endlessly, and he's definitely not the greatest of anything.. except well, of all sattouleen.
 
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Walidos

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
Are you talking about the same guy who gave aoun the presidency?
And in the interview a few days ago said he didn’t... I’m telling you he is a serial liar trying to make a place for himself on the political scene...
 

Joe tayyar

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
Don't know on which thread to post this




5 - يدعو التكتل السلطات اللبنانية المختصة الى القيام بما يلزم لضمان حقوق لبنان وحدوده البحرية والبرية كاملة. وفي هذا الإطار يُذكّر بأن رئيس التكتل وزير الخارجية الأسبق جبران باسيل سبق له أن وجّه الكتب اللازمة الى الجهات المعنية في لبنان بخصوص التداخل في الحدود الاقتصادية البحرية بين لبنان وسوريا، كما وجّه كتب اعتراض الى الجانب السوري ضماناً لحفظ حقوق لبنان وحدوده.
وعليه يدعو التكتل الى إجراء المفاوضات اللازمة بين لبنان وسوريا بهذا الشأن على اسس احترام حسن الجوار والقانون الدولي.
 

Viral

Active Member


5 - يدعو التكتل السلطات اللبنانية المختصة الى القيام بما يلزم لضمان حقوق لبنان وحدوده البحرية والبرية كاملة. وفي هذا الإطار يُذكّر بأن رئيس التكتل وزير الخارجية الأسبق جبران باسيل سبق له أن وجّه الكتب اللازمة الى الجهات المعنية في لبنان بخصوص التداخل في الحدود الاقتصادية البحرية بين لبنان وسوريا، كما وجّه كتب اعتراض الى الجانب السوري ضماناً لحفظ حقوق لبنان وحدوده.
وعليه يدعو التكتل الى إجراء المفاوضات اللازمة بين لبنان وسوريا بهذا الشأن على اسس احترام حسن الجوار والقانون الدولي.
You're wasting your time trying to educate morons who hate anything good for the country mainly because all they're good at is looting and GMA/Bassil/FPM are the only good powers trying to protect Lebanon and the Lebanese from those inhumane criminals who are sending their electronic army out to distort the truth and confuse the people...
 

The_FPMer

Well-Known Member
Do not confuse matters, I know you're good at these things. M14 did attempt to marginalize Aoun and isolate him politically. I did not measure their work effect in joules or in ampere for me to address the magnitude of their real power which you think is not much. They did form an anti-Aoun front, and at the time it happened, they triggered his defense mechanism against their political attack. Ma badda ejtihad kteer.
You did, when you say that Aoun had no choice, you're implying that they hold tremendous amount of power.
In that case, explain. How much influence has the west on non-puppet personalities, like Aoun, when it comes to internal Lebanese political affairs.
But we're not discussing that, are we? We're discussing how Aoun's contacts with the West could have benefited him in his fight against M14 margenilizing attempts. Rakkiz shway old man.
LOL, you're funny, bass kabbir 3a2lak. Enno do you really need Wikileaks to know that the American ambassador 2abba3it ma3o men Aoun 2006? Or was it rather since1989 2ela m2ab3a ma3on menno? Ma I already wrote in my previous reply.".. except for the Americans who are engaged on the israelis side in a regional chess game..
No, I don't, bas kent 3am jarrib bassetlak yeha ad ma fiye.
I also explained when the real outburst came ".. The MoU didn't start to negatively reflect on Aoun internationally until the Americans, with Trump at the helm, decided to dump the Iranian nuclear deal. Pompeo used his last days at the office to shoot one last bullet at Iran via Bassil in Lebanon." Before that, all was business as usual.
No, it wasn't, far far from it. Aoun made himself an enemy of the West, the second he signed that MOU. It took a little of time to develop, but it started right there.
But for the sake of probing your mind on this specific subject since you seem to pay much attention to it, what do you expect Aoun would have gained from the Americans, if no MoU was signed? Don't tell me Bassil would have escaped their sanctions because khwasre ma btet7ammal.. :lol:
Well they haven't sanctioned Geagea or Gemayel.
In one tongue you blame him for ditching his principles by allying to HA.. In the same sentence you advise him to weave alliance with both HA and M14. Prose and poetry. And no he's not constantly scorning the west.
He was and I keep telling you, reality isn't that one-dimensional. Many people are to blame, but mainly it's M14. M14 pushed him away, he could have chosen a different path than complete merging with HA. Alliances can be temporary and 3al ot3a mesh wholesale I accept everything you say and keep mum at all your scandals kermel mdandalle jazrit al ri2ase eddeme. See the difference? Difference between a kingmaker and a hollow naked king stripped from all of his clothes.
To conclude for the tenth time, I am not discussing the end results with you, you know that I know that the MoU didn't produce the desired end result we hoped for, stamping Aoun in the Iran-Axis, HA's perspective, against the world. But also that it is too simplistic of you to shovel over the entire blame for the MoU on only Aoun's free will while absolving the actions of the M14 bandits, the then prevailing conditions and our own recent and past history from any influence on his decision.
See above.
 

cokezero

New Member


5 - يدعو التكتل السلطات اللبنانية المختصة الى القيام بما يلزم لضمان حقوق لبنان وحدوده البحرية والبرية كاملة. وفي هذا الإطار يُذكّر بأن رئيس التكتل وزير الخارجية الأسبق جبران باسيل سبق له أن وجّه الكتب اللازمة الى الجهات المعنية في لبنان بخصوص التداخل في الحدود الاقتصادية البحرية بين لبنان وسوريا، كما وجّه كتب اعتراض الى الجانب السوري ضماناً لحفظ حقوق لبنان وحدوده.
وعليه يدعو التكتل الى إجراء المفاوضات اللازمة بين لبنان وسوريا بهذا الشأن على اسس احترام حسن الجوار والقانون الدولي.

Apparently Saad was against negotiations with Syria:

Prime Minister Saad Hariri has ruled out any direct negotiations with Damascus on any issues until a political solution to the Syrian crisis is reached. However, both countries maintain diplomatic relations, with embassies in Damascus and Beirut respectively.
 

Joe tayyar

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter

My Moria Moon

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
You did, when you say that Aoun had no choice, you're implying that they hold tremendous amount of power.

Why are you so squared, betdallak m3azzabne with the spoon? 🤔 El ossa manna muscle or power measurements, à la biceps and triceps. Small "powerless" things can "push" you to certain action. Here's a simplification: On your first jungle safari night, you discover you forgot your flashlight at home. You're pushed to improvise and light a torch instead. Does this make your failing memory more "powerful" than you are for letting you down? :lol: ye3ne, in other words, if one action causes a reaction, it doesn't mean that bayyo lal action is necessarily a2wa men bayyo lal reaction.

But we're not discussing that, are we? We're discussing how Aoun's contacts with the West could have benefited him in his fight against M14 margenilizing attempts. Rakkiz shway old man.

Hahaha, chickening out already? You've been swirling around with western connections 3al tali3 wel nezil, pointing out how critical they are for Aoun in general and not only and specifically in his fight with M14. Bass never mind, I'll follow you to the door. Tell me exactly how would those connections have benefited Aoun in his fight against M14.

No, I don't, bas kent 3am jarrib bassetlak yeha ad ma fiye.

Looks more like 3am betbasseta 3a 7alak.

No, it wasn't, far far from it. Aoun made himself an enemy of the West, the second he signed that MOU. It took a little of time to develop, but it started right there.

Too simplistic a conclusion, now I'm used to tebsitak. But he did not.

Well they haven't sanctioned Geagea or Gemayel.

And I already explained to you why and how. Here:
... until the Americans, with Trump at the helm, decided to dump the Iranian nuclear deal. Pompeo used his last days at the office to shoot one last bullet at Iran via Bassil in Lebanon." Before that, all was business as usual.

He was and I keep telling you, reality isn't that one-dimensional. Many people are to blame, but mainly it's M14. M14 pushed him away, he could have chosen a different path than complete merging with HA. Alliances can be temporary and 3al ot3a mesh wholesale I accept everything you say and keep mum at all your scandals kermel mdandalle jazrit al ri2ase eddeme. See the difference? Difference between a kingmaker and a hollow naked king stripped from all of his clothes.

See above.

See my 53 replies in the 15 last pages, or so.
 

The_FPMer

Well-Known Member
Why are you so squared, betdallak m3azzabne with the spoon? 🤔 El ossa manna muscle or power measurements, à la biceps and triceps. Small "powerless" things can "push" you to certain action. Here's a simplification: On your first jungle safari night, you discover you forgot your flashlight at home. You're pushed to improvise and light a torch instead. Does this make your failing memory more "powerful" than you are for letting you down? :lol: ye3ne, in other words, if one action causes a reaction, it doesn't mean that bayyo lal action is necessarily a2wa men bayyo lal reaction.
That debunks your entire argument that Aoun no other choice but to ally with HA else he would have been diminished politically.
Hahaha, chickening out already? You've been swirling around with western connections 3al tali3 wel nezil, pointing out how critical they are for Aoun in general and not only and specifically in his fight with M14. Bass never mind, I'll follow you to the door. Tell me exactly how would those connections have benefited Aoun in his fight against M14.
Not at all, I'm having fun entertaining your fallacies and intellectual cowardice. I was discussing the power of the West over M14 and how Aoun could have used them to play the king maker role and you asked me about non-puppet politicians like Aoun.
Too simplistic a conclusion, now I'm used to tebsitak. But he did not.
He did, the West was and is in opposition to HA. FPM completely allied with not only HA but the entire Iran axis and thoroughly switched its rhetoric.
And I already explained to you why and how. Here:
... until the Americans, with Trump at the helm, decided to dump the Iranian nuclear deal. Pompeo used his last days at the office to shoot one last bullet at Iran via Bassil in Lebanon." Before that, all was business as usual.
Just because you think something is true doesn't mean that it actually is :lol:
 

My Moria Moon

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
That debunks your entire argument that Aoun no other choice but to ally with HA else he would have been diminished politically.

Your understanding of logical flow needs heavy medication. From the flashlight vs torch example I gave you, how did you exactly conclude that one action causing another action debunks my entire argument that knocked out your argument about M14 being more powerful than Aoun, when it demonstrates that the notion of "power" is simply meaningless in the context.

Not at all, I'm having fun entertaining your fallacies and intellectual cowardice. I was discussing the power of the West over M14 and how Aoun could have used them to play the king maker role and you asked me about non-puppet politicians like Aoun.

And by a lucky chance you end up entertaining me with your stable confusion. First you claim that befriending the western powers would have benefited Aoun in his internal political jihad. I asked you exactly how could they have any effect on someone they neither control nor like, let alone on the course of Lebanese internal politics more than they already have through their M14 puppets? All I got is a blurry irrelevant reply about helping him become king maker. I'm starting to enjoy your monkeying circus.

He did, the West was and is in opposition to HA. FPM completely allied with not only HA but the entire Iran axis and thoroughly switched its rhetoric.

The west is Europe And the USA, not only the USA. Had the West not approved of Aoun becoming a president, he wouldn't have seen it. So you can tip your entire argument as bakhshish to someone in need, not much of a value.

Just because you think something is true doesn't mean that it actually is :lol:

I do respect that you do live as you teach, and that one plus one doesn't necessarily equals two to you. :lol:
 
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