October 2019 revolution - Live update

What do you think will happen next, after Hariri's resignation?

  • Stalemate - No govt will be formed

    Votes: 37 50.7%
  • New mini-government of specialists will be formed in less than 10 days

    Votes: 22 30.1%
  • Similar government with Hariri PM again

    Votes: 14 19.2%
  • Civil War

    Votes: 20 27.4%

  • Total voters
    73
J

joseph_lubnan

Legendary Member
well emotions aside, practically, i can't see how FM, HA, Amal, FPM, PSP, and LF can all give up all their powers and go stay at home, when elections happened just last year.. if we say half the country was in the street, they can argue that they have the other half.. so not sure how you can convince them to give up EVERYTHING. Unless the revolution does it by force... but would that draw the main parties' to the streets as well to flex their muscles?

If we reach a deadlock, the only solution would be through early elections... that would determine the size of everyone.
As i said before, the risk here is that the main parties - even if they lost some ground - MIGHT (and i say might) be back as a majority... what do we do then? accept the will of the people and form a government with a majority of the corrupt traditional politicians and a minority of the 7irak who have no 7awla wala kouwata??

that's why i said before, the 7irak needs at one point to get organized and offer itself as a serious and well established alternative. Not necessarily one leader who might be targeted and discredited by the sulta.. but maybe a committee or a group of intellectuals. Any even then, they might not win the majority in the first round.. it might take a few elections before they take over.. but they have to start somewhere. To think that FM/FPM/HA/Amal will just give up everything now and go home is just absurd... .practically.
Early elections are not bad. In fact the uprising is demanding this. A non-partisan technocrat government is needed sooner because of pressing economic issues, and because it would be more trusted in doing early elections. No the uprising does not need to kill itself by trying to organize as a party! this is the worse advice you can give them at this time, and I hope they are smart enough not to take it.

No matter who wins these elections, going back to the people is important after such large uprisings.

One more thing, there are some parties who have been clear that they want and accept both early elections and technocrat non-partisan gov in the transition. LF is one. Kataeb too.
 
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  • mariob2

    mariob2

    New Member
    Early elections are not bad. In fact the uprising is demanding this. A non-partisan technocrat government tis needed sooner because of pressing economic issues, and because it would be more trusted in doing early elections. No the uprising does not need to kill itself by trying to organize as a party! this is the worse advice you can give them at this time, and I hope they are smart enough not to take it.
    Or parliamentary sessions should be public. That way, no one will dare weasel their slimy way out of voting legitimate and anti-corruption laws. (Dare I say it is just a technical and momentary alternative )
     
    loubnaniTO

    loubnaniTO

    Legendary Member
    Staff member
    Super Penguin
    Early elections are not bad. In fact the uprising is demanding this. A non-partisan technocrat government tis needed sooner because of pressing economic issues, and because it would be more trusted in doing early elections. No the uprising does not need to kill itself by trying to organize as a party! this is the worse advice you can give them at this time, and I hope they are smart enough not to take it.

    No matter who wins these elections, going back to the people is important after such large uprisings.

    One more thing, there are some parties who have been clear that they want and accept both early elections and technocrat non-partisan gov in the transition. LF is one.
    early elections would be great and ideal.. but early elections is not the end goal here.. the end goal should be CHANGE. You dont want to waste all of this to have the same old parties back in power.
    What i am saying is that for early elections to result in CHANGE, you need an alternative.. a well organized, focused, clear alternative (hopefully non sectarian based, and reformative). Otherwise, trust me, the early elections will not result in much change, and then we will have to wait for another 10-15 years for another revolution.
     
    J

    joseph_lubnan

    Legendary Member
    early elections would be great and ideal.. but early elections is not the end goal here.. the end goal should be CHANGE. You dont want to waste all of this to have the same old parties back in power.
    What i am saying is that for early elections to result in CHANGE, you need an alternative.. a well organized, focused, clear alternative (hopefully non sectarian based, and reformative). Otherwise, trust me, the early elections will not result in much change, and then we will have to wait for another 10-15 years for another revolution.
    Change is iterative. It will take time no matter how much this uprising achieves or does not. once you get to a point where you have a technocrat gov and declared early elections, I think some organization will emerge gradually. All you FPM leadership needs to do is agree to the logical demands of demonstrators instead of vilifying them. for real man.
     
    loubnaniTO

    loubnaniTO

    Legendary Member
    Staff member
    Super Penguin
    Change is iterative. It will take time no matter how much this uprising achieves or does not. once you get to a point where you have a technocrat gov and declared early elections, I think some organization will emerge gradually. All you FPM leadership needs to do is agree to the logical demands of demonstrators instead of vilifying them. for real man.
    the issue ya JL is that regardless of you and i want... they have the mandate from last year's elections.. so you could put as much pressure as you want, you will not get them to commit suicide. They will not eliminate themselves.. when it gets to that point, they wil send their people to the street and confrontation will happen. So if all of them say no to a pure technocrat government... i dont see how the 7irak can force it! At one point compromises will have to happen.
     
    leb-wi-noss

    leb-wi-noss

    Legendary Member
    well emotions aside, practically, i can't see how FM, HA, Amal, FPM, PSP, and LF can all give up all their powers and go stay at home, when elections happened just last year.. if we say half the country was in the street, they can argue that they have the other half.. so not sure how you can convince them to give up EVERYTHING. Unless the revolution does it by force... but would that draw the main parties' to the streets as well to flex their muscles?

    If we reach a deadlock, the only solution would be through early elections... that would determine the size of everyone.
    As i said before, the risk here is that the main parties - even if they lost some ground - MIGHT (and i say might) be back as a majority... what do we do then? accept the will of the people and form a government with a majority of the corrupt traditional politicians and a minority of the 7irak who have no 7awla wala kouwata??

    that's why i said before, the 7irak needs at one point to get organized and offer itself as a serious and well established alternative. Not necessarily one leader who might be targeted and discredited by the sulta.. but maybe a committee or a group of intellectuals. Any even then, they might not win the majority in the first round.. it might take a few elections before they take over.. but they have to start somewhere. To think that FM/FPM/HA/Amal will just give up everything now and go home is just absurd... .practically.
    It’s been 4 weeks now and no one can argue that the common demand among all the streets is a technocrat government. There are many stupid demands heard here and there but the form of government is universal among demonstrators. Why to complicate things and discuss what is going to happen after elections. One leader or a committee are going be targeted either way. It happened to them in 2015, they will never fall for this again before the formation of the government. It even happened in France, the minute they met with the government they destroyed their credibility among the people with rumors.
    The main problem now is HA who is not accepting a technocrats government. The rest publicly agreed to let go, they might be playing games but at least they are saying publicly they will. Amal & Aoun are either powerless and can’t go against HA or they don’t want to let go their powers.
    It’s going to be a biting finger game between HA & the street. It’s up to HA to pick the exit to save the country and his aura at the same time.
     
    mariob2

    mariob2

    New Member
    Change is iterative. It will take time no matter how much this uprising achieves or does not. once you get to a point where you have a technocrat gov and declared early elections, I think some organization will emerge gradually. All you FPM leadership needs to do is agree to the logical demands of demonstrators instead of vilifying them. for real man.
    early elections would be great and ideal.. but early elections is not the end goal here.. the end goal should be CHANGE. You dont want to waste all of this to have the same old parties back in power.
    What i am saying is that for early elections to result in CHANGE, you need an alternative.. a well organized, focused, clear alternative (hopefully non sectarian based, and reformative). Otherwise, trust me, the early elections will not result in much change, and then we will have to wait for another 10-15 years for another revolution.
    No change will occur unless the ruling political class's mentality realize that sooner or later the sins of their past will eventually catch up to them.

    When you decide policies knowing full well people are waiting for the slightest mistake to protest your incomptence and corruption, only then, when politicians fear for their lives and their future, when they are reminded that they serve their country not because they have a duty to do so (which usually is enough of a motivation for virtuous individuals), but because they will be publicly lynched (metaphorically) if they [email protected] up somewhere or have a dirty skeleton dug out from their closet.

    That, however, requires the politicians not to act with impunity and complete disregard to the Rule of Law. And for that to happen, they must not be blindly protected by fanatical supporters. And for that to happen, the people must be aware and conscious.

    As much as optimistic as I would like to appear, it needs time. Education will undoubtedly have a role to play. Sadly, that role, even with current protests, is just the beginning (of the end?). We need more time to become aware (+ time for the warlords of old to die off).

    So the question is: what can we do with the time that is given? (I am quoting Gandalf)
     
    loubnaniTO

    loubnaniTO

    Legendary Member
    Staff member
    Super Penguin
    It’s been 4 weeks now and no one can argue that the common demand among all the streets is a technocrat government. There are many stupid demands heard here and there but the form of government is universal among demonstrators. Why to complicate things and discuss what is going to happen after elections. One leader or a committee are going be targeted either way. It happened to them in 2015, they will never fall for this again before the formation of the government. It even happened in France, the minute they met with the government they destroyed their credibility among the people with rumors.
    The main problem now is HA who is not accepting a technocrats government. The rest publicly agreed to let go, they might be playing games but at least they are saying publicly they will. Amal & Aoun are either powerless and can’t go against HA or they don’t want to let go their powers.
    It’s going to be a biting finger game between HA & the street. It’s up to HA to pick the exit to save the country and his aura at the same time.
    I agree with all the above...
    except that at one point, we will NEED to offer an alternative.. maybe not now to meet the president or the ambassador (i dont care about this), but at one point before any early elections. Not offering a viable alternative will risk wasting all the efforts put in place. Can you imagine if early elections happen in a few months, and the SAME powers are back ? even if you erode their popularity, if there is no alternative, the same people you are trying to get rid of today could be back with the mandate of the people, and you will have a hard time removing them in the street.

    Lebanon and the Lebanese are not France and the French. France already has alternatives.. if one party is corrupt, others are not, and people can shift majorities. In Lebanon, we don't have alternatives yet... can you imagine tomorrow the majority of shiaa voting for other than HA/Amal? or majority of druze not voting for Jumblatt? or majority of christians not voting for PFM/LF? etc. etc.
    If there is a big chunk of population who are LONGING for an alternative that is clean, that aims at REALLy changing the system to a secular one, where human rights and freedoms are at the core of their platform in addition to fighting corruption, are offered one, there is a good chance this alternative can gain momentum, maybe not a majority from the first round... but momentum would be great. after 4 years you might get a majority.
     
    Dynamis

    Dynamis

    Well-Known Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    If 7irak is looking for some excuse to go home then let it be so people can go back to their lives no matter how miserable their lives might be. I never expected any significant reform during our lifetime.
    On the other hand, if the plan to destroy the country is still in effect, then we are wasting pour time debating and guessing who the better choice is for PM.
    You nailed it. The plan is to destroy and divide the country. It is up to us to prevent it, by being smart and unified.
     
    The End

    The End

    First of his Name
    Orange Room Supporter
    You nailed it. The plan is to destroy and divide the country. It is up to us to prevent it, by being smart and unified.
    Dynamis, I feel like you’re the type to have an underground bunker that can withstand several atomic bombs, and are equipped with about 1000 cans of fool, balila, mjaddara, and even some tuna.
     
    ّTelefon Kasse

    ّTelefon Kasse

    Member
    Of course, but since an opportunity is presenting itself here and now, it wouldn't hurt to remind people of it, though I do not believe in miracles, to be frank.
    what are you trying to remind the people ? that we should return together to the majless and rip the **** out of their remaining bones !?
    a confrontation is eminent !! either you take responsibility to find a solution and crush the american scheme or you give the lead to the american elements in Lebanon and let them take responsibility of this burden alone. Saad el Hariri was not given money from the gulf countries because of HA and Iran. How complicated is this ?
     
    H

    HalaMadrid

    Active Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    the issue ya JL is that regardless of you and i want... they have the mandate from last year's elections.. so you could put as much pressure as you want, you will not get them to commit suicide. They will not eliminate themselves.. when it gets to that point, they wil send their people to the street and confrontation will happen. So if all of them say no to a pure technocrat government... i dont see how the 7irak can force it! At one point compromises will have to happen.
    Through organizing? Imagine, if you will, a team of 7 people, representing 7 of the largest civil society organizations in the street saying "we have 300k people behind us who are not going anywhere unless we are in every negotiation room over this government and you can't form it without us." It's a hard bargain, I would've liked to see any of the ruling parties refuse it. I also would've liked to see LF/PSP/etc try to coopt a well-organized movement. But young liberals (and even the left) fetishize the street. Rania Masri did a smart session on the refusal to play politics in DT last week. The street is not hard power in the face of political parties, militias, and regional/international forces. Didn't we do this dance in 2015? How much did the movement advance since then in terms of organizing? And now that the numbers have dwindled, you're right, it's probably too late unless enough people are pissed about Safadi.
     
    ّTelefon Kasse

    ّTelefon Kasse

    Member
    You nailed it. The plan is to destroy and divide the country. It is up to us to prevent it, by being smart and unified.
    we have been unified in poverty for more than 30 years.
    Dynamis, I feel like you’re the type to have an underground bunker that can withstand several atomic bombs, and are equipped with about 1000 cans of fool, balila, mjaddara, and even some tuna.
    true that's how it is in Lebanon, they know how to fight and destroy, but they don't know how to rebuild. The moumana3a are disconnected from reality. My assumption is that their salaries are reaching well to their door step and they cannot understand what the people are going through.
    Just because a few people are on the streets, they think it is a mou2amara ... What they don't know is that the Lebanese is threatened to be fired from his job by his employer if he chooses to hit the streets and protest.
    The employer is mostly a member of a political party, for this reason, when you have political campains for 14 or 8 of march, you will notice the employer telling his employees not to come to work and rally them in favor of his political camp
     
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    J

    joseph_lubnan

    Legendary Member
    Through organizing? Imagine, if you will, a team of 7 people, representing 7 of the largest civil society organizations in the street saying "we have 300k people behind us who are not going anywhere unless we are in every negotiation room over this government and you can't form it without us." It's a hard bargain, I would've liked to see any of the ruling parties refuse it. I also would've liked to see LF/PSP/etc try to coopt a well-organized movement. But young liberals (and even the left) fetishize the street. Rania Masri did a smart session on the refusal to play politics in DT last week. The street is not hard power in the face of political parties, militias, and regional/international forces. Didn't we do this dance in 2015? How much did the movement advance since then in terms of organizing? And now that the numbers have dwindled, you're right, it's probably too late unless enough people are pissed about Safadi.
    HolaBarcelona you are wrong in this. Calling on an uprising like this to organize and present leadership is a fallacy at this stage and one the political cass are using to create a distraction. There are clear demands that neither require a clear leadership structure nor negotiations. Formation of a new non-partisan technocrat government and early elections. Enough smoke and mirror and distractions, and stop peddling these Bullshit theories. You can call on the movement to organize differently when its comes to the early elections, but for now, maximum pressure and demonstrations until these two demands are met, and these two demands are clear as day.
     
    ّTelefon Kasse

    ّTelefon Kasse

    Member
    Damn! I though it just happened during the past 3 years. Well, plus or minus one zero. Mish Baynetna :cigar:
    you understood me wrong. I was replying to Abou Sandal's "we should find a solution together" (let's agree how to keep robbing the country together)
    fpmers are very sensitive and they take critic too personally. Corruption is not new in Lebanon, however, today, you are in charge.
     
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