October 2019 revolution - What would be the perfect outcome?

[Jorje]

Eh, this is by definition unrealistic. But here it goes.

1) Revolution that topples the government.
2) Army takes over for a few weeks. All who participated in the government under house arrest
3) A transitional government with technocrats and emergency powers is set into place, with plan to immediately tackle corruption, start investigating those in power for the past 30 years, form a constitutional counsel to revise the Constitution and fully implement Taef.
4) Constitution is sent for referendum.
5) Elections following from the Constitution

It's a big ask to do any of this without a civil war. And there is the question of Hezbollah arms. Only solution is if they come directly under the authority of the state - no decision of war without the formal approvement of the executive authority.

 

[Red Phoenix]

just watched wael bou fa3our speak

so far this is where we stands according to all tv speeches

bassil didnt do nothing, hariri didnt do nothing, nasralah didnt do nothing, geagea didnt do nothing, jumblat didnt do nothing, berri is quiet ripping off someone somewhere from his last 2 pennies, and our president is in a total deep coma sleeping somewhere

call me now educated

 

[Red Phoenix]

i suggest even going to a 60 MP Parliament. 15 districts each district 4 MPs more than enough. no sect allotment.

hell yeah

60 cunts any day over the current 128 cunts

they are mostly spineless parrot yes men to start with

 

[!Aoune32]

hell yeah

60 cunts any day over the current 128 cunts

they are mostly spineless parrot yes men to start with

correct. save money dont need the rest. the gov should be no more than 16. senate and admin decentralisations.

 

[williamazar]

1- federalism
2- Hezbollah weapons under government control
3- civil marriage
4- return of refugees to syria and israel

 

[illusion84]

Eh, this is by definition unrealistic. But here it goes.

1) Revolution that topples the government.
2) Army takes over for a few weeks. All who participated in the government under house arrest
3) A transitional government with technocrats and emergency powers is set into place, with plan to immediately tackle corruption, start investigating those in power for the past 30 years, form a constitutional counsel to revise the Constitution and fully implement Taef.
4) Constitution is sent for referendum.
5) Elections following from the Constitution

It's a big ask to do any of this without a civil war. And there is the question of Hezbollah arms. Only solution is if they come directly under the authority of the state - no decision of war without the formal approvement of the executive authority.

Why would you support an unelected official to take over?

 

[Jorje]

Why would you support an unelected official to take over?

It's a coup, 7abibi, in a perfect scenario. You don't run elections during a coup. The point is to put in a transitional government that puts all the gangs in jail, clamps down on corruption, pave the way for a new constitution and THEN organizes an election. I think the army would be critical to pave the way for a transitional government.

Now let us dream.

 

[Danny Z]

It's a coup, 7abibi, in a perfect scenario. You don't run elections during a coup. The point is to put in a transitional government that puts all the gangs in jail, clamps down on corruption, pave the way for a new constitution and THEN organizes an election. I think the army would be critical to pave the way for a transitional government.

Now let us dream.

Indeed despotism is the most efficient type of government but it doesn’t make people happy and requires the despot holds a lot of force to quash unhappy people. There is currently nobody who was enough power in Lebanon to rule with force except HA but then the international powers won’t let this happen another bigger force will come in and quash the despot government so this whole scenario won’t happen. So the best outcome of all this is everybody go home and those who don’t like it, apply to Canadian and Australian embassies, for those who have money try the Vanuatu passport. It is well respected.

 

[illusion84]

It's a coup, 7abibi, in a perfect scenario. You don't run elections during a coup. The point is to put in a transitional government that puts all the gangs in jail, clamps down on corruption, pave the way for a new constitution and THEN organizes an election. I think the army would be critical to pave the way for a transitional government.

Now let us dream.

A coup against a democratically elected gov? something like Sissi of Egypt ya3neh! And how do you know that the army commander won't act as a dictator ?

 

[cedarheart]

perfect outcome??? nothing is perfect, but since this a free medium to express our minds, here's what i hope for (although i know it's too much to dream of):

1- Transitional gov that excludes anyone who took part in the civil war and/or was in power since 1990. That gov will have a mission to:

1. Manage debt crisis (short and long term)
2. Full audit of public finances since 1990
3. Cleaning the legal system and shortening judiciary procedures
4. Start transitioning the economy towards a productive economy focused on export of products and services
5. Establish a national committee of experts mandated to write a new electoral law that ensures equality and adequate representation

2- Economic reforms (other than the ones we all already know) :

1. A new law forcing all banks to dedicate 30% of their investments to the industrial, agricultural and IT sectors
2. Infrastructure plan focused on IT, and public transit
3. Transition agriculture towards products that generate higher income by sq m, and establish standards that meet European requirements in order to facilitate exports
4. Establish a new institution mandated to promote Lebanese products and services abroad
5. Establish a new intuition mandated to plan and guide the industrial sector
6. Review all public contracts and make sure they are free of corruption
7. Ensure that any future income from oil and gas is transferred to a sovereign fund
8. 25% TVA on luxury items and goods, Abolish TVA on school/education products, non-luxury children apparel
9. Ensuring that the subsidized flour is used for bread only by bakeries and not other products

3- Political reforms:

1. A new law that ensures all political parties follow democratic and transparency rules internally and make all of their finances public
2. A new law that splits political parties into two categories: National (those who can get 10% of the votes in every caza) and Minor (those who can’t get that quota); the electoral law would then favour the National parties (extra spending, advertisements, etc)
3. Imposing term limits on Prime ministers (8yrs), ministers (10yrs), House speakers (8yrs), and MPs (12yrs)
4. Imposing a time limit for government formation
5. Decentralization
6. Secularization of the State
7. An amendment to the constitution making Lebanon a Neutral State (similar to the Swiss neutrality principle

 

[NewB]

LF, Amal and PSP out of the government. That’d be a great achievement.

That wouldn't help. Foreign embargo and sanctions will destroy lebanon's economy and cause the people to rage even further.

 

[!Aoune32]

We need a national defense strategy also for the arms of HA. They cannot continue to hold arms.

 

[CitizenOfTheRepublic]

That wouldn't help. Foreign embargo and sanctions will destroy lebanon's economy and cause the people to rage even further.

They would do that for Jumbi, geagea and Berri? Ufff, hal 2add mhemmine?

 

[Libnene Qu7]

The most favorable outcome would be for FPM, FM, and HA to form a solid alliance and rule as they see fit for the remainder of the 3 years presidential term. All of the proposed reforms in Hariri's speech that will happen today were originally authored by Bassil and refused by LF and PSP. In fact LF ministers were OK with the whatsapp tax idea. Khalas, get rid of those two ex militias and keep Berri in our pocket, real reform as originally envisioned by Gebran Bassil can happen.

 

[Leb_Rebel]

What charbel nahhas said

 

[illusion84]

Can someone explain the reform plan please? Is the Banks contribution a donation or what? Did the banks agree on this on their own or is it imposed ?

How are we gonna cut the electricity cost by half ? Hariri was vague on these much urgent points.

What are the plans for Lira vs Dollars ? What about the Garbage crisis ?

I liked how he ended his speech much much better than Nassrallah's speech.

 

[Mrsrx]

Can someone explain the reform plan please? Is the Banks contribution a donation or what? Did the banks agree on this on their own or is it imposed ?

How are we gonna cut the electricity cost by half ? Hariri was vague on these much urgent points.

What are the plans for Lira vs Dollars ? What about the Garbage crisis ?

I liked how he ended his speech much much better than Nassrallah's speech.

 

[Walidos]

Can someone explain the reform plan please? Is the Banks contribution a donation or what? Did the banks agree on this on their own or is it imposed ?

How are we gonna cut the electricity cost by half ? Hariri was vague on these much urgent points.

What are the plans for Lira vs Dollars ? What about the Garbage crisis ?

I liked how he ended his speech much much better than Nassrallah's speech.

I think the banks things are taxes or tax-like mesures, they don’t get a say! The government can impose taxes and the banks can take or shut down... they are free

 

[Danny Z]

I think the banks things are taxes or tax-like mesures, they don’t get a say! The government can impose taxes and the banks can take or shut down... they are free

Actually they can say no and leave Lebanon and stop their business in Lebanon and they still have the right to get the money and capital after the bonds they lent the government expire, the problem if the state can declare bankruptcy and then they get nothing, so each bank will weigh its options depending how much they have lent the government and how much they have at stake before taking the pill.

 

[Walidos]

Actually they can say no and leave Lebanon and stop their business in Lebanon and they still have the right to get the money and capital after the bonds they lent the government expire, the problem if the state can declare bankruptcy and then they get nothing, so each bank will weigh its options depending how much they have lent the government and how much they have at stake before taking the pill.

Exactly... I think they have too much at stake to pack up and leave... now I also read that it’s for 1 year only which doesn’t make sense...
If this is truly the case then it’s like a one time settlement or discount...