Only 36% of Lebanese voters are Christian

Achilles

Active Member
90% of Lebanese Muslims oppose civil marriage and some are dreaming about secularism.
As for the numbers, Christians will be OK as long as they keep their historical geographical area homogeneous, and which extends from Zgharta in the North up to Damascus road and including Zahleh.

Secularism is wishful thinking, it didn't work in any Muslim dominant country. Turkey tried it for decades, it worked for a while because the army was doing a dictatorship guardian role, overthrowing any government who would threaten the secular system. The moment the Army stopped playing that role and the Turks shifted back to an Islamic regime is disguise.

Belgium has always been a secular country, but when the demographic balance shifted in favor of the Dutch speaking Flanders, the country decided to shift toward a federal system. Lebanon from the beginning is a federation of sects, an awkward system in which laws and political shares applies differently according to sects. IMO this outdated sectarian federal system should be replaced ASAP by a true federal system. Secularism is not the solution, especially in the Arab/Muslim world. 90% of all federal countries are secular countries (US, Belgium, Canada, Germany, Switzerland and even countries smaller than Lebanon) - if secularism was enough Switzerland and other countries wouldn't have chosen a federal system.

Christians will not keep their historical regions for long. Demography is also changing very fast in these regions, because their are no laws to prevent this, which forced some municipalities to create their own Lands-purchasing rules (like in hadath) which is something abnormal.

If nothing is done, if no measure is taken now, then at some point the Muslims will for sure raise the issue of demography. Today in 2018 the 1.3 million Christians voters gets 64 MP while the 1.1 million Sunni voters gets 28 MP... Unless they are masochistic I doubt they will accept this situation to last forever. So better to be prepared now, and start finding solutions, instead of keeping an ostrich-like approach by burying one's head in the sand.
 

NAFAR

Legendary Member
Secularism is wishful thinking, it didn't work in any Muslim dominant country. Turkey tried it for decades, it worked for a while because the army was doing a dictatorship guardian role, overthrowing any government who would threaten the secular system. The moment the Army stopped playing that role and the Turks shifted back to an Islamic regime is disguise.

Belgium has always been a secular country, but when the demographic balance shifted in favor of the Dutch speaking Flanders, the country decided to shift toward a federal system. Lebanon from the beginning is a federation of sects, an awkward system in which laws and political shares applies differently according to sects. IMO this outdated sectarian federal system should be replaced ASAP by a true federal system. Secularism is not the solution, especially in the Arab/Muslim world. 90% of all federal countries are secular countries (US, Belgium, Canada, Germany, Switzerland and even countries smaller than Lebanon) - if secularism was enough Switzerland and other countries wouldn't have chosen a federal system.

Christians will not keep their historical regions for long. Demography is also changing very fast in these regions, because their are no laws to prevent this, which forced some municipalities to create their own Lands-purchasing rules (like in hadath) which is something abnormal.

If nothing is done, if no measure is taken now, then at some point the Muslims will for sure raise the issue of demography. Today in 2018 the 1.3 million Christians voters gets 64 MP while the 1.1 million Sunni voters gets 28 MP... Unless they are masochistic I doubt they will accept this situation to last forever. So better to be prepared now, and start finding solutions, instead of keeping an ostrich-like approach by burying one's head in the sand.

I agree there is the Chrisitan numbers issue, however it is not the dominant factor to decide Christians fate in Lebanon.
I can classify these factors as follow:
- Majority Christian geographical area
- Wealth and education
- Enrolling in the Goverment positions and in the armed forces
- Finding new jobs and stop the immigration bleeding.

As for being prepared, I believe that Christian political class and Church can have plans to improve on the above listed factors and not by making more babies; if times come for federalism (accepted internally and internationally) Christians can be ready.

At the end, I believe Christians fate is in their hand if they plan and act wisely; unfortunately, Christians proved the opposite historically.
 

Randomiser

New Member
You don't mind Christians paying 65% of the taxes, and working in the private sector. If we are in a democratic system with the idea that representation comes with taxation, in this case, Christian vote should be worth double of that of the Muslim lol... remember that no taxation without representation

Either 50/50 or partition

Explain how did you figured out that number, every living person in Lebanon pay direct and indirect taxes on daily basis. Unless you are trying the Imply that the average Christian is 4x richer than the average Muslim which would look true if you compare Jbeil and Keserwan to the deprived areas in Bekaa and Akkar.
 

Thawra # Furoshima

Well-Known Member
Explain how did you figured out that number, every living person in Lebanon pay direct and indirect taxes on daily basis. Unless you are trying the Imply that the average Christian is 4x richer than the average Muslim which would look true if you compare Jbeil and Keserwan to the deprived areas in Bekaa and Akkar.
Friend outside Beirut 2
South north Bekaa western bekaa Tripoli Akkar
Average salary is 500/1000$
Keserwan Matn Ashrafieh Baabda
Average salaries 1500/2500$
South and some other regions don’t pay electricity bills in general
It is true people in Keserwan and Matn cheat on their income tax
Specially liberals professions
Trade
 

flag-waver

Legendary Member
Actually in 1992 the 46 percent Christians were not exactly
They comprised dead people
Youssef Karam name was there
After the decision to remove people over 100 years unless they show up
Number went down to 39 percent
Naturalisation decree children reached 21 in 2015
Since 2015
Christians stable around 36 percent
Plus Muslim increased in south Akkar and Baalbek
Not mixed Baabda or Zahle
Plus 1500 Christians immigrants are receiving nationality every month

People are always just thinking the negative. It is not that bad as what people think. There are 1.5 million people outside who are registered and 60% are muslim. The muslims are registering more but they are outside the country.
 

Thawra # Furoshima

Well-Known Member
People are always just thinking the negative. It is not that bad as what people think. There are 1.5 million people outside who are registered and 60% are muslim. The muslims are registering more but they are outside the country.
Agree more Muslims in Australia than Christians
 

Randomiser

New Member
Friend outside Beirut 2
South north Bekaa western bekaa Tripoli Akkar
Average salary is 500/1000$
Keserwan Matn Ashrafieh Baabda
Average salaries 1500/2500$
South and some other regions don’t pay electricity bills in general
It is true people in Keserwan and Matn cheat on their income tax
Specially liberals professions
Trade
Because these areas are deprived and away from the capital. The closer to Beirut, the more job opportunities.
 

flag-waver

Legendary Member
Agree more Muslims in Australia than Christians

Not only in Australia. The whole world. Those who went out in the 80-90 and after 60% were muslims. 40% christians.
When a christian family goes out the country they mostly take out 2 adults and 1 or 2 children BUT when a muslim family goes out we are talking about 6-7-8 people going out.

No one really knows who lives in Leb and how many. If we have for example 170K voters in Metn that means we have over 400K residents which 90% are christian. This district by itself 3ando 370K christians. The point is ma7ada bya3ref how much live in Lebanon.
The christians needs two things.
1) They need to stop thinking about themselves and get married and have children.
2) Do projects and not only in Beirut and Mount Lebanon. But concentrate kameina on the atraf.
 

Death To Google

New Member
Current voter numbers represent the birthrates of 1-2 generations ago. In 20-40 years, the voters will represent the current birth rates. There is nothing that leads me to believe current Christian birthrates are lower than others. If anything the proportion of Christian voters might go up in the next decades.
 

flag-waver

Legendary Member
Current voter numbers represent the birthrates of 1-2 generations ago. In 20-40 years, the voters will represent the current birth rates. There is nothing that leads me to believe current Christian birthrates are lower than others. If anything the proportion of Christian voters might go up in the next decades.

This is actually true. The muslim birth rates have dropped dramatically and it is now the same as the christians. We need to revoke the 94 law or at least those who do not live in Lebanon we need to take their citizenships back from them. I do not understand why thousands byijo 3a Zahle just to vote and then go back home. This is not acceptable. Also, there needs to be a way or a solution to get the palestinians and the syrians out of lebanon.
 

Mockinggbird

New Member
This is actually true. The muslim birth rates have dropped dramatically and it is now the same as the christians. We need to revoke the 94 law or at least those who do not live in Lebanon we need to take their citizenships back from them. I do not understand why thousands byijo 3a Zahle just to vote and then go back home. This is not acceptable. Also, there needs to be a way or a solution to get the palestinians and the syrians out of lebanon.

it's not true my friend ...i wish it was
it's not only related to the naturalization that clearly tipped the balance
check the growth rate of Beirut-2 versus Beirut-1 voters between 2009 and 2018
it's 10.5% for Beirut-2 (which reflects urban Muslims with the highest standard of living)
it's a negative growth -0.5% for Beirut-1 (predominantly christian voters)
in North-3 - zgharta-bcharre-koura-batroun the most conservative / non-urban christian area it's around 5%
in North-1 - Akkar it's more than 24%...
the birth rate of Muslims remains higher due to several reasons related to culture, religion...
even for their most modern / westernized category
simply the concept of marriage and relation between men and women is different....
its not a Lebanese phenomena it's everywhere in the world
unfortunately it's the case in numerous places in the world
they win by using the most basic weapon : demography
and we Christians we keep on losing
since I opened my eyes in this country we are losing (socially, economically, politically. etc...)
we are not used to win anymore...
 
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Thawra # Furoshima

Well-Known Member
it's not true my friend ...i wish it was
it's not only related to the naturalization that clearly tipped the balance
check the growth rate of Beirut-2 versus Beirut-1 voters between 2009 and 2018
it's 10.5% for Beirut-2 (which reflects urban Muslims with the highest standard of living)
it's a negative growth -0.5% for Beirut-1 (predominantly christian voters)
in North-3 - zgharta-bcharre-koura-batroun the most conservative / non-urban christian area it's around 5%
in North-1 - Akkar it's more than 24%...
the birth rate of Muslims remains higher due to several reasons related to culture, religion...
even for their most modern / westernized category
simply the concept of marriage and relation between men and women is different....
its not a Lebanese phenomena it's everywhere in the world
unfortunately it's the case in numerous places in the world
they win by using the most basic weapon : demography
and we Christians we keep on losing
since I opened my eyes in this country we are losing (socially, economically, politically. etc...)
we are not used to win anymore...
Yes but this happened one time
In 2017 Christians were 35 percent of voters
In 2018 36 percent so this trend is stabilizing for know but we must wait for deeper studies
 

Mockinggbird

New Member
Yes but this happened one time
In 2017 Christians were 35 percent of voters
In 2018 36 percent so this trend is stabilizing for know but we must wait for deeper studies
who told you 35 in 2017 and 36 in 2018??
is this a joke or what?
 

Achilles

Active Member
Yes but this happened one time
In 2017 Christians were 35 percent of voters
In 2018 36 percent so this trend is stabilizing for know but we must wait for deeper studies

Deeper studies are very important. But I feel many Christian parties are afraid to do any serious studdy.

Christians after the 6th of May elections will be in their best political situations since 1990. A representative president, and most Christians MP chosen by christian’s Voters. So it will be the best and maybe last opportunity to requestion the Lebanese system, and to really know where we are heading to.

Are christian’s Voters gonna drop under 30% in a decade? Are christian’s traditional districts gonna become mixed districts in the coming years? We really need serious studies and serious answers... do christian’s Parties and the Church have any serious plan to keep a balance in this country or we’re just counting on the Holy Spirit to come and fix things?
 
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