Parliamentary elections 2018 Oroom Official Elections 2018 Predictions

Please select the district(s) for which you can provide educated guesses on elections results


  • Total voters
    25
Tsunami27

Tsunami27

Well-Known Member
Great people of Lebanon,

Under the blessing of @Jo and due to the huge interest from the forum members to predict numbers and blocks for the upcoming elections, I propose that we do it in a scientific manner

As a matter of fact, I have prepared a workbook that would help us predict the winners across all districts. It takes the following as input from the user:
1) The anticipated participation rate per sect
2) The percentage of each list from each sect
3) Partition of preferential votes within each list

It runs the numbers and gives you the end result of who will win

I will start here with a poll to capture the people that are willing to participate in this activity per district. The objective is to collect around 3-5 experts per district willing to share their insights. Please do only select the district for which you can provide realistic/educated guesses

After that, I will reach out to you individually to get your insights, aggregate them, and share with you the final results - Oroom Official Elections 2018 Predictions
 
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  • Omeros

    Omeros

    Well-Known Member
    Great people of Lebanon,

    Under the blessing of @Jo and due to the huge interest from the forum members to predict numbers and blocks for the upcoming elections, I propose that we do it in a scientific manner

    As a matter of fact, I have prepared a workbook that would help us predict the winners across all districts. It takes the following as input from the user:
    1) The anticipated participation rate per sect
    2) The percentage of each list from each sect
    3) Partition of preferential votes within each list

    It runs the numbers and gives you the end result of who will win

    I will start here with a poll to capture the people that are willing to participate in this activity per district. The objective is to collect around 3-5 experts per district willing to share their insights. Please do only select the district for which you can provide realistic/educated guesses

    After that, I will reach out to you individually to get your insights, aggregate them, and share with you the final results - Oroom Official Elections 2018 Predictions
    saba2tne ! i was preparing a survey !

    lets do a survey and im ready to get results from the ground
     
    Tsunami27

    Tsunami27

    Well-Known Member
    Guys, we still need some more volunteers

    Shou @joseph_lubnan @HannaTheCrusader @lebanese1 @TayyarBeino @The Jade @SeaAb @Abotareq93 @Placebo @Muki @La Blague @freelebanonn and all other active users in the elections threads? No one is interested in this game?
     
    Lebanese Pride

    Lebanese Pride

    Well-Known Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    I'm an expert, pick me!
     
    manifesto

    manifesto

    Well-Known Member
    Guys, we still need some more volunteers

    Shou @joseph_lubnan @HannaTheCrusader @lebanese1 @TayyarBeino @The Jade @SeaAb @Abotareq93 @Placebo @Muki @La Blague @freelebanonn and all other active users in the elections threads? No one is interested in this game?

    I'm interested but the Keserwan-Jbeil seats have already been filled.
    Can someone give me the tafdili?
     
    L

    lebanese1

    Legendary Member
    I am sorry I am unable to give scientific estimations as I don't have reliable data,, I just guess based on 2009 figures in areas where vote distribution is somehow known.
     
    The Jade

    The Jade

    Legendary Member
    Guys, we still need some more volunteers
    and all other active users in the elections threads? No one is interested in this game?
    Sorry dude, I'm really not good at these.
    I don't have enough data to venture a good guess.
     
    manifesto

    manifesto

    Well-Known Member
    You don't need to be an expert to predict the outcome of Baalbeck-Hermel and Tyre-Zahrani :)
     
    loubnaniTO

    loubnaniTO

    Legendary Member
    Staff member
    Super Penguin
    Any polls being published? members' predictions? with the lists ready and alignments clearer, i am hoping to see some predictions, and see who will get it the most accurate.
     
    Iron Maiden

    Iron Maiden

    Paragon of Bacon
    Staff member
    I predict:
    18-20 for FPM bloc
    11-13 for LF
    24-27 for FM
    2-3 marada
    2-3 civil movement
    2 kataeb
    25 anal and HA
    10 psp bloc
    Wel be2e ben independants w minor parties candidates

    To be taken with a huge grain of salt as i have no scientific data behind it, its all based on hunches, feelings and people around me online and irl.

    Also i am waiting in line and need to pass the time
     
    Abotareq93

    Abotareq93

    Legendary Member
    I predict:
    18-20 for FPM bloc
    11-13 for LF
    24-27 for FM
    2-3 marada
    2-3 civil movement
    2 kataeb
    25 anal and HA
    10 psp bloc
    Wel be2e ben independants w minor parties candidates

    To be taken with a huge grain of salt as i have no scientific data behind it, its all based on hunches, feelings and people around me online and irl.

    Also i am waiting in line and need to pass the time
    Anal? Haydeh zabatet ma3ak:lol:
     
    Dark Angel

    Dark Angel

    Legendary Member
    Any polls being published? members' predictions? with the lists ready and alignments clearer, i am hoping to see some predictions, and see who will get it the most accurate.
    nito, i think that according to the current electoral law the publishing of statistic results is prohibited prior to one month from the election without the explicit approval of the official monitoring committee.

    consequently a fair warning to all members publishing expected results :p
     
    Mockinggbird

    Mockinggbird

    New Member
    I predict:
    18-20 for FPM bloc
    11-13 for LF
    24-27 for FM
    2-3 marada
    2-3 civil movement
    2 kataeb
    25 anal and HA
    10 psp bloc
    Wel be2e ben independants w minor parties candidates

    To be taken with a huge grain of salt as i have no scientific data behind it, its all based on hunches, feelings and people around me online and irl.

    Also i am waiting in line and need to pass the time
    2-3 kataeb
    7-8 for PSP
    20-24 FPM (including tashnag)
    3-4 mikati
     
    gramsci

    gramsci

    Legendary Member
    @Dark Angel so we practically vote in the same caza !

    my bid is that in nabatieh -marje3youn-bint jbeil there will be 2 khare2 for LCP list : shia candidate Ali haj Ali , and orthodox hala abou kassm.
     
    W

    wdawle1

    Member
    4 maten
    4 kesewern/jbeil
    2 chouf/aley
    3 beirut1
    1 baabda
    2 chouf/aley
    1 north ( not considering michel moawad)
    1 jezzine

    18 confirmed

    battles
    1 maten
    1 keserwen/jbeil
    1 chouf/aley
    1 beirut I
    1 north ( not considering michel moawad)
    1 akkar
    1 beirut II
    1 jezzine
    1 Baabda
     
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