POST-Elections 2022

Who will you vote for in the upcoming general election?

  • FPM

    Votes: 30 37.0%
  • LF

    Votes: 24 29.6%
  • HA

    Votes: 1 1.2%
  • KATAEB

    Votes: 1 1.2%
  • FM/PSP/ex 14 March candidates

    Votes: 1 1.2%
  • AMAL/MARADA/SSNP/8 March candidates

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Other (MMFD, SABAA, independent candidates)

    Votes: 16 19.8%
  • Not voting, blank vote or undecided

    Votes: 8 9.9%

  • Total voters
    81

JB81

Legendary Member
Nabih is rubbish and i wouldnt trust this snake too much. He isn’t conceding anything and wants Bitar hand removed from the port case.

Not sure what is going on

But it looks like from such report that the Constitutional Council will adopt the 65mps or 87 mps as majority or 2/3 of Parliament regardless of missed members

If happened, this is an achievement towards building a State where the Parliament is not dekken chez Nabih

Anytime he wants a majority, it is according to his mood

Bravo Tayyar a corner stone in building the State
 

flag-waver

Legendary Member
Not sure what is going on

But it looks like from such report that the Constitutional Council will adopt the 65mps or 87 mps as majority or 2/3 of Parliament regardless of missed members

If happened, this is an achievement towards building a State where the Parliament is not dekken chez Nabih

Anytime he wants a majority, it is according to his mood

Bravo Tayyar a corner stone in building the State

Lets see what happens but this isn‘t what the fight is over. Nabih doesnt care too much about the expats. With or without the shia expats his areas are secured. The real fight is over Bitar and nchalla there isn’t an agreement to remove Bitar or to take his hand off the explosion case as we are used to with tayyar.
 

flag-waver

Legendary Member
He gave numbers like 17 to the LF Ba3dena 20 ba3dena 13…. He doesn’t know how to make up his mind. lol
2 Bcharre
1 Batroun
1 Jbeil
1 Keserwen
1 Metn
2 Aley Chouf
1 Zahle
1 Beirut 1
1 Baabda
1 Baalbeck

These are 100% no way not to be elected.
I expect also another in Beirut, another in Zahle, another in Koura and no one knows about the 5th seat in Keserwen.

Keserwen 1 FPM 1 Khazen 1 LF 1 Frem and the fifth seat stays a ??

We don’t know about an alliance with Hariri yet or no neither if an alliance with Rifi in Tripoli or the sunni north will produce any results. Soon we will find out. We could have another in Akkar, Rifi in Tripoli and even one in West Bekaa no one knows. Let me be Habr and ill start guessing for all the political parties.
 

freelebanonn

Legendary Member
He gave numbers like 17 to the LF Ba3dena 20 ba3dena 13…. He doesn’t know how to make up his mind. lol
2 Bcharre
1 Batroun
1 Jbeil
1 Keserwen
1 Metn
2 Aley Chouf
1 Zahle
1 Beirut 1
1 Baabda
1 Baalbeck

These are 100% no way not to be elected.
I expect also another in Beirut, another in Zahle, another in Koura and no one knows about the 5th seat in Keserwen.

Keserwen 1 FPM 1 Khazen 1 LF 1 Frem and the fifth seat stays a ??

We don’t know about an alliance with Hariri yet or no neither if an alliance with Rifi in Tripoli or the sunni north will produce any results. Soon we will find out. We could have another in Akkar, Rifi in Tripoli and even one in West Bekaa no one knows. Let me be Habr and ill start guessing for all the political parties.
You forgot 1 in bint jbeil and 1 in sour.
 

TayyarBeino

Legendary Member
21:54
فيصل الصايغ للـOTV:
- يبدو ان اللقاء الديمقراطي سيعيد ترشيح مروان حمادة واكرم شهيب للانتخابات المقبلة
- التحالف تاريخي مع المستقبل واذا كان لكتلة المستقبل مرشحون فسنخوض الانتخابات معهم ومع القوات ولسنا نشكل جبهة ضد احد
- ننتظر ما اذا كان المستقبل سيشكل لوائح انتخابية والحريري اذا كان سيترشح وواضح ان الحريري لم يتخذ قرارا نهائيا بعد
 

Patriot

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
According to Jean Nakhoul MTV biggest district in terms of expats registration is North 3
30,000 registered in that district, that's almost 3 7asels, no wonder Bassil is pushing for 6 MPs.

@flag-waver apparently biggest district in terms of registrations in Australia was North 3 too

Largest districts in expats registrations were shouf Aley, Beirut 2 and North3
 

freelebanonn

Legendary Member
According to Jean Nakhoul MTV biggest district in terms of expats registration is North 3
30,000 registered in that district, that's almost 3 7asels, no wonder Bassil is pushing for 6 MPs.

@flag-waver apparently biggest district in terms of registrations in Australia was North 3 too

Largest districts in expats registrations were shouf Aley, Beirut 2 and North3
While in other districts there effect is close to 0 which bring you to the reason why LF turned over on the law they pushed for in 2018 and why berri and his aranib are fighting tooth and nail in order to revert back the 6 mps clause in the law.
Those 30 000 people , half of them will end up voting , divided on at least 3 lists , add to them the local votes ( which are the majority by far) and the expats will find themselves fighting in the end in 1 district on 1 additional mp one of the list will win by the fractions remaining . Congrats on your shortsightedness.
 

Apostate

Your will, my hands.
Orange Room Supporter
According to Jean Nakhoul MTV biggest district in terms of expats registration is North 3
30,000 registered in that district, that's almost 3 7asels, no wonder Bassil is pushing for 6 MPs.

@flag-waver apparently biggest district in terms of registrations in Australia was North 3 too

Largest districts in expats registrations were shouf Aley, Beirut 2 and North3

Lets hope for a high participation rate... personally I hope for a high turnout in Beirut2.
Traditionally we have a very low turnout in Beirut2, was like 39 or 40% in 2018... so high participation rate in 2022 would smell bad news for Hariri.
 

Patriot

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
While in other districts there effect is close to 0 which bring you to the reason why LF turned over on the law they pushed for in 2018 and why berri and his aranib are fighting tooth and nail in order to revert back the 6 mps clause in the law.
Those 30 000 people , half of them will end up voting , divided on at least 3 lists , add to them the local votes ( which are the majority by far) and the expats will find themselves fighting in the end in 1 district on 1 additional mp one of the list will win by the fractions remaining . Congrats on your shortsightedness.

regardless, 6 MPs are useless upfront
you can keep them, and Bassil can shove them.
I couldn't care less about MPs representing the expats
i want a change in parliament and for that my vote has more weight voting against one of the 15 districts.

Personally i vote in North 3 and didn't want to take the risk of voting against 6 MPs, so i did not register w nezel entekheb b lebnen
i might even get FPM to pay for my ticket like they offered me in 2018 so the joy of voting against them will be double.
 

Patriot

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
Lets hope for a high participation rate... personally I hope for a high turnout in Beirut2.
Traditionally we have a very low turnout in Beirut2, was like 39 or 40% in 2018... so high participation rate in 2022 would smell bad news for Hariri.

The anger is high, people will be voting en masse
lak ana i did not register just not to risk my vote going against the 6 MPs, i'm booking a flight and going to vote in Lebanon...
i can't be alone feeling this way dude.
 

Apostate

Your will, my hands.
Orange Room Supporter
While in other districts there effect is close to 0 which bring you to the reason why LF turned over on the law they pushed for in 2018 and why berri and his aranib are fighting tooth and nail in order to revert back the 6 mps clause in the law.
Those 30 000 people , half of them will end up voting , divided on at least 3 lists , add to them the local votes ( which are the majority by far) and the expats will find themselves fighting in the end in 1 district on 1 additional mp one of the list will win by the fractions remaining . Congrats on your shortsightedness.

Ya3ne if they vote for a diaspora districts, their votes won't be divided the same way? we won't end up with 3-3 MPs for each camp? or maybe 2-3 and 1 for non-parties? lol its the same sh1t ...
However if they vote for lebanese districts, they have the potential to tip the balance in every district for additional 7assel for 1 list or another... 1,2 or 3k votes in a district can yield the necessary fraction to reach a 7assel.
They have the potential to affect results, and its up to them and how they vote.

Sorry but your argument is full of nonsense.

PS: before you jump to the argument of "at least they would have their own representatives" ... well they do either way, and MP represents the nation, not a specific district. If they have concerns as expats then they can vote for a list inside that address their concerns as expats and have their voice heard in the parliament.
 

Dark Angel

Legendary Member
While in other districts there effect is close to 0 which bring you to the reason why LF turned over on the law they pushed for in 2018 and why berri and his aranib are fighting tooth and nail in order to revert back the 6 mps clause in the law.
Those 30 000 people , half of them will end up voting , divided on at least 3 lists , add to them the local votes ( which are the majority by far) and the expats will find themselves fighting in the end in 1 district on 1 additional mp one of the list will win by the fractions remaining . Congrats on your shortsightedness.
there was 3 main lists competing in north 3 elections in 2018, they got a total of 112636 votes, with 10 seats, the quantum turned out to be 11,264.

40788 votes or 36.21% for marada
37376 votes or 33.18% for ja3ja3ists
33342 votes or 29.6% for FPM

this time around there will be 5 main lists competing, assuming all will their meet the minimum qualification quota, and assuming an increase of 30000 votes, the quantum will be 14000 votes.

as far as the diaspora is concerned, the 30000 votes will be distributed on the 5 lists, even if there was a bias, it will be minimal, worse case scenario of maximum bias, it will pull a certain list by 3000 or 4000 votes; that's 1/4th of a hassel, with a rather minimal impact.

and yet the constitutional council may yet put things in play in favor the 16th district, when the time is right the significance of the 6 diaspora MPs will be explained in its strategic internal dimension. so far all people trying to address this issue are missing the real strategic motivation behind it. but all will be revealed in good time.

to put things to rest, GB's election is a done deal.
the main objective of FPM is therefore to either ensure george atallah's election in koura, or ensure wiliam towq's victory in bcharre. both goals have their merits.
 
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flag-waver

Legendary Member
According to Jean Nakhoul MTV biggest district in terms of expats registration is North 3
30,000 registered in that district, that's almost 3 7asels, no wonder Bassil is pushing for 6 MPs.

@flag-waver apparently biggest district in terms of registrations in Australia was North 3 too

Largest districts in expats registrations were shouf Aley, Beirut 2 and North3

Akide man. I know this from the start. North 3 is the biggest district with expat votes and mostly are christian. GB knows that he will probably lose his seat hence he is pushing hard to have this 6 expat vote. I hope he loses the bastard.
 

flag-waver

Legendary Member
I think GB and Tony Frangieh are the only ones in North 3 who guarantee a seat since they alone can reach the required 7asel

People are assuming that the support is the same as 2018. This is the problem. No one knows yet. Franjiyeh yes due to Zgharta and its families etc. GB will probably make it but only him.
 
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