Real-estate troubles

Aoune32!

Aoune32!

Well-Known Member
يعيش القطاع العقاري في لبنان أزمة تهدد بانهياره خاصة مع توالي الأزمات السياسية بالبلاد، واندلاع النزاع في سوريا، وتراجع أسعار النفط.

وكان القطاع العقاري قد شهد طفرة غير مسبوقة بين العامين 2008 و2011، أدت الى ارتفاع الأسعار بشكل جنوني. إلا أن الطلب تراجع محليا، وأحجم المغتربون اللبنانيون والخليجيون الأثرياء، الذين كانوا في أساس هذه الطفرة، عن الشراء جراء الأزمات السياسية المتلاحقة والاضطرابات الأمنية على وقع النزاع السوري. وأضيف إلى ذلك تراجع أسعار النفط منذ العام 2014.

وجراء هذا الجمود، لا تجد آلاف الشقق السكنية التي تم بناؤها خلال السنوات الماضية من يشتريها، واضطر كبار المطورين العقاريين الى وقف العمل في مشاريع ضخمة كان بوشر العمل فيها مع بداية الأزمة.

ويقدر الخبير العقاري لدى شركة رامكو للاستشارات العقارية، غيّوم بوديسو، وجود "نحو 3600 شقة غير مباعة حالياً في بيروت الإدارية وحدها".

مبيعات محدودة
ويمكن معاينة هذا الواقع من خلال جولة ميدانية على بعض المشاريع. في مقابل مرفأ بيروت، يشرف مبنى "الساحل" الفخم على البحر والسفن الراسية هناك. ورغم انتهاء عملية بنائه في العام 2014، تم بيع شقتين فقط من اجمالي 21، مساحة كل واحدة منها 500 متر مربع.

ويقول مالك المبنى حسين عبدالله: "عندما بدأنا الأشغال في العام 2010، كان الوضع مختلفاً كلياً".

ويوضح أنه اضطر إلى التنازل عن ثماني شقق لصالح أحد المصارف من أجل تسديد ديونه.

على بعد عشرات الأمتار عدة، توقف العمل بشكل كلي منذ عامين في مشروع آخر، بعد انهاء بناء هيكله الخارجي فقط.

ويشرح مالك المشروع، متحفظاً عن ذكر اسمه لفرانس برس، "بعنا شقة واحدة على الخريطة"، موضحاً أنه من أجل جذب الزبائن، تم تخفيض سعر المتر المربع الواحد من أربعة آلاف الى 3200 دولار أمريكي "من دون أن يكون لذلك أي تأثير على المبيع".

وتقر امرأة الأعمال، ميراي شوفاني، من مشروع "باب بيروت" الفخم في قلب العاصمة بأن "الطلب في السوق يكاد يكون معدوماً".

(روسيا اليوم)



قطاع العقارات بلبنان مهدد بالانهيار.. والمستثمرون متخوفون
 
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  • NAFAR

    NAFAR

    Well-Known Member
    This is a fact.
    This is also affecting the Land prices.
    We can say that apart from people building their own houses........construction sector is almost completely stopped.
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    This is a fact.
    This is also affecting the Land prices.
    We can say that apart from people building their own houses........construction sector is almost completely stopped.
    The country is in really bad shape. I dont think it can come back from it economically.
     
    walidos

    walidos

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    A burst in the real estate bubble is welcome! Prices are ridiculously high and not really justified. Ya3ne that prick from the interview wants to sell his apartments at 4000$ per sqm? And he reduced it to 3200$? That is WAY over priced... when they decide to make good profit rather than exorbitant ones, yeb2o yejo yne2o
     
    mrsrx

    mrsrx

    Newish Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    even bank byblos gave up on their weekly reports! I check those from time to time as its an available research source....i guess it is not available anymore!

    1544436271777.png
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    [QUOTE = "walidos, post: 1948438, member: 2712"] A burst in the real estate bubble is welcome! Prices are ridiculously high and not really justified. Ya3ne that prick from the interview wants to sell his apartments at 4000 $ per sqm? And he reduced it to $ 3200? That is WAY over priced ... when they decide to make good profit rather than exorbitant ones, yeb2o yejo yne2o [/QUOTE]

    Its is welcome for those who want to buy like me masalan. But those who got from the bank a high loan, it could be worth more than the house and this is the scary bit.
    masalan he got a 200K loan and the house is worth 250K. Now due to decreaes in house prices it could be worth 180K but he still has a debt of 200K.

    second, how do i know that the banks will allow me to borrow?? There is alot of uncertainty.
     
    Last edited by a moderator:
    Indie

    Indie

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    I've been ranting about the real estate vultures for years, on this forum, and predicted the bubble would burst eventually.

    It wasn't a natural growth and it wasn't sustainable.
     
    opium

    opium

    Well-Known Member
    [QUOTE = "walidos, post: 1948438, member: 2712"] A burst in the real estate bubble is welcome! Prices are ridiculously high and not really justified. Ya3ne that prick from the interview wants to sell his apartments at 4000 $ per sqm? And he reduced it to $ 3200? That is WAY over priced ... when they decide to make good profit rather than exorbitant ones, yeb2o yejo yne2o [/ QUOTE]

    Its is welcome for those who want to buy like me masalan. But those who got from the bank a high loan, it could be worth more than the house and this is the scary bit.
    masalan he got a 200K loan and the house is worth 250K. Now due to decreaes in house prices it could be worth 180K but he still has a debt of 200K.

    second, how do i know that the banks will allow me to borrow?? There is alot of uncertainty.
    Read it the other way around. Previous buyers got loans form Iskan at 4 % interest, however new interest rate will be around 6%. Over 30 years period this is approx. 50% more.
     
    O

    oldschool

    Member
    People talk out of their asses about real estate. In Lebanon we have this tradition to badmouth anyone who makes money.

    Well ok, can any of you explain to me in numbers how they were making exaggerated profits?

    Tell me the price of the land, the cost of construction, and what their ROI was and after how many years. I bet none of you know. You just see big rich companies and think theyre bad. Well guess what most of them are bankrupt now and in debt and their employeers will be laid off.

    And it isnt because they were charging high prices. Actually if lebanon is stable the prices would be higher still. Simply the political and economic situation got worse and the market stopped.

    IF they charged lower prices before, they would lose money or their profit wouldnt be worth it.


    Baaden, if they were making these huge profits, why didnt any of the geniuses complaining start their own company, make less profits, and sell everything they build like cookies at lower prices? BECAUSE IT WOULDNT MAKE BUSINESS SENSE.

    These developpers were making reasonable percentage profits considering the land cost. Now why the land cost was so high is due to many factors, Lebanese expats + density + small space + desirable climate in the region and a relative period of stability.
     
    Dark Angel

    Dark Angel

    Legendary Member
    People talk out of their asses about real estate. In Lebanon we have this tradition to badmouth anyone who makes money.

    Well ok, can any of you explain to me in numbers how they were making exaggerated profits?

    Tell me the price of the land, the cost of construction, and what their ROI was and after how many years. I bet none of you know. You just see big rich companies and think theyre bad. Well guess what most of them are bankrupt now and in debt and their employeers will be laid off.

    And it isnt because they were charging high prices. Actually if lebanon is stable the prices would be higher still. Simply the political and economic situation got worse and the market stopped.

    IF they charged lower prices before, they would lose money or their profit wouldnt be worth it.


    Baaden, if they were making these huge profits, why didnt any of the geniuses complaining start their own company, make less profits, and sell everything they build like cookies at lower prices? BECAUSE IT WOULDNT MAKE BUSINESS SENSE.

    These developpers were making reasonable percentage profits considering the land cost. Now why the land cost was so high is due to many factors, Lebanese expats + density + small space + desirable climate in the region and a relative period of stability.
    the cost of a delux m2 is about $700. this price includes everything (meterial, labor, taxes and engineering fees) while the cost of a super-delux m2 is between $800 and $1000. if you factor in the land price you will find that an estimated profit of 100% might not be off by much.
     
    O

    oldschool

    Member
    Deluxe apartments take longer to sell. When you factor in Loan payments and interests during that time (which btw is what bankrupted these companies now) and permits and the land cost, you wont get 100%. This 100% if it exists is after many years. It isnt 100% per year or even few years.

    And again, if it was feasible to go lower on prices, all it would take is one big investor to lower its prices and dominate the market.

    Even few years ago when i was going to start a project, i discovered after running the numbers it wouldnt be profitable if i sell at market prices after buying the land at what the price was.

    Here is an example from Blat area in Jbeil:

    Price of land is 400/m2 for a 1000m2 land. thats 400k
    Zoning is 25-75% so you get 750+balconies and walls and shit so around 1000sqm built up to sell.
    Cost is 500/m2 so thats 500k.
    misc other costs lets say max 100k.

    Total 1 million.

    Market selling price is 1300$/m2

    if you sell it all then your profit is 300k thats 30% total spread out over minimum 3 years which is nothing. (exact ROI would of course depend on loan structure and how fast you sell and payment schedules)

    But its around that ballpark.

    What made the prices high are the land costs. Lebanon is small and demand was thought to be high and sustainable. Every ****head and his cousin started building mnel dekkanje lal hakim.

    People forget you can put your money in a bank in Lebanon and get 7% (now almost double). So when an investor wants to invest 100s of thousands of dollars its reasonable for him to expect ROI thats double and triple because there are many risks.

    Thats the nature of business and thats how money gets invested.
     
    Last edited:
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    Read it the other way around. Previous buyers got loans form Iskan at 4 % interest, however new interest rate will be around 6%. Over 30 years period this is approx. 50% more.
    This can also be read the way i read it. Loans will be higher than the house price. Same thing happened in the US.
     
    Indie

    Indie

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    People talk out of their asses about real estate. In Lebanon we have this tradition to badmouth anyone who makes money.

    Well ok, can any of you explain to me in numbers how they were making exaggerated profits?

    Tell me the price of the land, the cost of construction, and what their ROI was and after how many years. I bet none of you know. You just see big rich companies and think theyre bad. Well guess what most of them are bankrupt now and in debt and their employeers will be laid off.

    And it isnt because they were charging high prices. Actually if lebanon is stable the prices would be higher still. Simply the political and economic situation got worse and the market stopped.

    IF they charged lower prices before, they would lose money or their profit wouldnt be worth it.


    Baaden, if they were making these huge profits, why didnt any of the geniuses complaining start their own company, make less profits, and sell everything they build like cookies at lower prices? BECAUSE IT WOULDNT MAKE BUSINESS SENSE.

    These developpers were making reasonable percentage profits considering the land cost. Now why the land cost was so high is due to many factors, Lebanese expats + density + small space + desirable climate in the region and a relative period of stability.
    No one is badmouthing real estate people because they're making money. I've got nothing against investing in real estate.

    But when the price of a regular apartment in Lebanon is higher than equivalent homes in some major Western cities, while people make less than half the salary, there is a serious problem.

    It's even worse when a good chunk of the new apartments built are not regular apartments for regular Lebanese, but luxury units destined for foreign or expat speculators who don't even live in them. This, in a country so small that the available real estate space is rare, to begin with.

    Finally, many of the buildings do not follow proper urbanism and environmental criteria.

    There's honest money, and there's raping the country and its people with a "après moi, le déluge" attitude.
     
    walidos

    walidos

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Deluxe apartments take longer to sell. When you factor in Loan payments and interests during that time (which btw is what bankrupted these companies now) and permits and the land cost, you wont get 100%. This 100% if it exists is after many years. It isnt 100% per year or even few years.

    And again, if it was feasible to go lower on prices, all it would take is one big investor to lower its prices and dominate the market.

    Even few years ago when i was going to start a project, i discovered after running the numbers it wouldnt be profitable if i sell at market prices after buying the land at what the price was.

    Here is an example from Blat area in Jbeil:

    Price of land is 400/m2 for a 1000m2 land. thats 400k
    Zoning is 25-75% so you get 750+balconies and walls and shit so around 1000sqm built up to sell.
    Cost is 500/m2 so thats 500k.
    misc other costs lets say max 100k.

    Total 1 million.

    Market selling price is 1300$/m2

    if you sell it all then your profit is 300k thats 30% total spread out over minimum 3 years which is nothing. (exact ROI would of course depend on loan structure and how fast you sell and payment schedules)

    But its around that ballpark.

    What made the prices high are the land costs. Lebanon is small and demand was thought to be high and sustainable. Every ****head and his cousin started building mnel dekkanje lal hakim.

    People forget you can put your money in a bank in Lebanon and get 7% (now almost double). So when an investor wants to invest 100s of thousands of dollars its reasonable for him to expect ROI thats double and triple because there are many risks.

    Thats the nature of business and thats how money gets invested.
    So you start out with a post cursing us “idiots” because you think we are targeting “rich companies” and want to bad mouth them, then you say the profit is close to double the investment... bass let me correct one thing: When your cost is 1000$ per sqm and you sell for 4000$, please don’t tell me it’s 100%... even after you factor in the loan and all that jazz. You make double or triple the investment. The companies going bankrupt (mainly Saifco) is behind massive theft/misuse of funds... net it is not clean. The smaller ones who didn’t sell either have lousy quality or lousy layouts or both.

    Finally, in your first post you dare us “idiots” who think there are any exorbitant profit margins to go into the industry, then you say kill shithead and his cousin fata7o chirkeh and are building to sell... of course they did, the profit margins are EXORBITANT
     
    opium

    opium

    Well-Known Member
    So you start out with a post cursing us “idiots” because you think we are a “rich company” and want to bad mouth it, then you say the profit is close to double the investment... bass let me correct one thing: When your cost is 1000$ per sqm and you sell for 4000$, please don’t tell me it’s 100%... even after you factor in the loan and all that jazz. You make double or triple the investment. The companies going bankrupt (mainly Saifco) is behind massive theft/misuse of funds... net it is not clean. The smaller ones who didn’t sell either have lousy quality or lousy layouts or both.

    Finally, in your first post you dare us “idiots” who think there are any exorbitant profit margins to go into the industry, then you say kill shithead and his cousin fata7o chirkeh and are building to sell... of course they did, the profit margins are EXORBITANT
    Developers didn't read the market well. They invested in luxurious appartments and went greedy all the way.
    Not only Sayfco went Bankrupt, many other sharks did bankrupt or on the way(like Plus properties)
    Some tried to move their investments overseas to Cyprus/Turkey/Gulf but couldn't breakthrough and lost even more.
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    No one is badmouthing real estate people because they're making money. I've got nothing against investing in real estate.

    But when the price of a regular apartment in Lebanon is higher than equivalent homes in some major Western cities, while people make less than half the salary, there is a serious problem.

    It's even worse when a good chunk of the new apartments built are not regular apartments for regular Lebanese, but luxury units destined for foreign or expat speculators who don't even live in them. This, in a country so small that the available real estate space is rare, to begin with.

    Finally, many of the buildings do not follow proper urbanism and environmental criteria.

    There's honest money, and there's raping the country and its people with a "après moi, le déluge" attitude.
    The biggest problem is what you just illustrated. How in the world can I buy an apartment not a house a 3 bedroom apartment for 400K in the city? How can I simply afford to do it aslan? If one earns 20K a year how can one do it?
    He needs 20 years if he puts all this figure away without the interest to pay off the loan. Something is really wrong with the country.
    Houne in Australia mazbout house prices are really high(highest in the world) BUT you earn approx 60K. So if an apartment is 500K and you earn 60K in less than 10 years (if we use the same sums above) you will earn that house. So in Lebanon a country who has no electricity, no water, no infrastructure, cars more than humans it takes people twice as long to pay off their house!
     
    Indie

    Indie

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    The biggest problem is what you just illustrated. How in the world can I buy an apartment not a house a 3 bedroom apartment for 400K in the city? How can I simply afford to do it aslan? If one earns 20K a year how can one do it?
    He needs 20 years if he puts all this figure away without the interest to pay off the loan. Something is really wrong with the country.
    Houne in Australia mazbout house prices are really high(highest in the world) BUT you earn approx 60K. So if an apartment is 500K and you earn 60K in less than 10 years (if we use the same sums above) you will earn that house. So in Lebanon a country who has no electricity, no water, no infrastructure, cars more than humans it takes people twice as long to pay off their house!
    You won't even find a 3 bedroom in the city for 400k.
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    You won't even find a 3 bedroom in the city for 400k.
    agree.
    I for one want to buy an apartment in Hadath. I can't even find one at a reasonable price. The prices are becoming the same as here in Australia.
     
    Indie

    Indie

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    agree.
    I for one want to buy an apartment in Hadath. I can't even find one at a reasonable price. The prices are becoming the same as here in Australia.
    No wonder everyone wants to leave.
     
    O

    oldschool

    Member
    So you start out with a post cursing us “idiots” because you think we are targeting “rich companies” and want to bad mouth them, then you say the profit is close to double the investment... bass let me correct one thing: When your cost is 1000$ per sqm and you sell for 4000$, please don’t tell me it’s 100%... even after you factor in the loan and all that jazz. You make double or triple the investment. The companies going bankrupt (mainly Saifco) is behind massive theft/misuse of funds... net it is not clean. The smaller ones who didn’t sell either have lousy quality or lousy layouts or both.

    Finally, in your first post you dare us “idiots” who think there are any exorbitant profit margins to go into the industry, then you say kill shithead and his cousin fata7o chirkeh and are building to sell... of course they did, the profit margins are EXORBITANT
    4000 are Beirut prices. Do you have any idea how much land costs in Beirut? Again, i gave you an example with total numbers. What youre saying youre taking it out of your own ass. Im a civil engineer and know the numbers.

    The profits are not exhorbitant at all. You have no idea what youre talking about. Kell el 3alam fetet aal domain because they thought like you.

    What they didnt undersand is that real estate companies owned a lot of land and the land prices skyrocketed after syrians left and there was stability. Thats why there was a big jump at first. Fakaro ano real estate a gold mine while its just a business like any other with similar ROI and even less than most.

    But it doesnt matter if you bought the land men zamen at 10$. You are still investing the current land price at the time youre building and selling.

    Its not about Sayfco. Companies that were doing normal business are going bankrupt. Because they simply started too many projects and these are projects that are financed by loans and when the selling stopped they cant pay back the loans and they dont have money to finish the projects.
     
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