Samir Geagea Health Issues - How Might It Affect the LF and Lebanon?

Who will take over after SG?

  • Setrida Geagea

    Votes: 7 19.4%
  • Ziad Hawwat

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • George Adwan

    Votes: 1 2.8%
  • Antoine Zahra

    Votes: 1 2.8%
  • Nadim Gemayyel

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Joseph_Lubnan

    Votes: 24 66.7%
  • Other

    Votes: 3 8.3%

  • Total voters
    36

freelebanonn

Legendary Member
LF will be hit much more. Gebran Bassil is becoming very popular within Aounist circles.
With every leadership shift, a lot of people loyal to the old leader will be sidelined in favour of people chosen by the new leader. And in Lebanon people are not mature enough to accept that their role will always have an end, so they start a rebel then leave for good when they fail blaming the new leader for destructing the party and straying away from the path of the founder.

With GMA death many key FPMers will leave and i only see the party getting divided to pieces such as koudama el tayyar, asdika2 el 3imad aoun, al haraka al tashihiya fi el tayyar, asdika2 ibrahim kanaan and so on. The party will get a huge hit but will survive somehow.

On the other hand, geagea did not succeed in building a true party ma3 heykaliye wad7a w nizam w intikhabet. So if he dies now LF will be torn to pieces and setrida wont be able to save it .
 

The_FPMer

Well-Known Member
With every leadership shift, a lot of people loyal to the old leader will be sidelined in favour of people chosen by the new leader. And in Lebanon people are not mature enough to accept that their role will always have an end, so they start a rebel then leave for good when they fail blaming the new leader for destructing the party and straying away from the path of the founder.

With GMA death many key FPMers will leave and i only see the party getting divided to pieces such as koudama el tayyar, asdika2 el 3imad aoun, al haraka al tashihiya fi el tayyar, asdika2 ibrahim kanaan and so on. The party will get a huge hit but will survive somehow.

On the other hand, geagea did not succeed in building a true party ma3 heykaliye wad7a w nizam w intikhabet. So if he dies now LF will be torn to pieces and setrida wont be able to save it .
Even if key figures in FPM mutinate, they don't have 10% of the popular support that Gebran Bassil currently has (and its growing). I fail to see how FPM will lose its wide popularity. LF on the other hand, Setrida doesn't have the fanatical loyalty of LFers that Samir has.
 

HannaTheCrusader

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
ma tfawlo 3al zalame! I am probably amongst the people who dislike him the most, but I still won’t wish death on to him...! Nor would want to discuss LF leadership especially if he really does have health issues...

mouhs 3am nwafek

he has health issues and no one lives for ever
so we have to start discussing who will take over after he is gone
could be 1 year
could be in 20 years

still its time for ouwat to breach that subject

hey for the past 15 years halakuna GENERAL dying wa wa wa wa wa wa

time for them to concentrate on 7akaymmmmmmmmmmmm health and who replaces him
 

HannaTheCrusader

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
لاحظ كيف قوات ساكتين فزعلنين ما يكون مويت

المشكلة اذا مات و بلش يعمل عجايب.... هونيك!
 

HannaTheCrusader

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
It is the end of the LF
Super Gibran will get 50 deputies in 2022
Don’t wish death to anyone
God be with Geagea in health not politics


you make a very valid point
barring assasination of GEBRAN ( allah ye7me)

most tayyar opponents are eitehr dead, too old and broken up

kataeb are dying off
boteros haeb finsihed
fattoush a has been
skaff lucky if heseb takes her under their wings
marada happy to be in north and zgahrta mainly
murr is knocking on hell doors any moment
feroun and ba7
dory chamoun ba7
michel daher did his lat hurray thsi past election
hadi houbieh won by hariri backing him, we dont know if hariri can do that feat again
salim karam is bye bye ,
nkoula ghousn has passed away in koura , supporters to be split between parties
ssnp is a dying force in christian street., in akkar they got onlky 900 or so christian votes , koura like 3500 ( all elderlyand dying) , matn barely 4k ( smae elderly and dying)

ouwat, are the only ones remaining and their size was deoendent on hariri benevolence , so when ever ga3ga3 exits, tayyar will inherit some of them and the rest will scatter and setrida if she takes over will be mainly on the north...ye3ni 4-5 nouwab max

so yes,

TAYYAR IS THE ONLY PARTY THAT WILL BE STANDING AND BECOME STRONGER AND STRONGER
 

HannaTheCrusader

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
If you guys want to have this discussion, let me tell you that if Geagea steps aside, LF will actually grow. He is a controversial figure as much as he is an icon. LF is much more institutionalized than you folks want to believe, so long that they chose a reasonable new leadership, the chance of it expanding and appealing to more Christians will grow.

FPM on the other hand... lol :) what can i tell you except allah ytawwwil bi 3omr el General.


no it wont grow ya 7oubbbbbbbb

cause his base ( bcharek, deir al a7mar, koura) are with him cause nhe is a bcherane and thats it
without a bcherane in ouwat,
ouwat in the north will be decimated looooooooooooooool

natreen the day a non bcherane to eld ouwat and we shall laugh so hard hahahahaha
 

HannaTheCrusader

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
not sure that jeajea has some serious issues. but here is the thing about the Lebanese forces.
i think that after samir jeajea the Lebanese forces might have the chance to rise up to its true potential. there are plenty of good people in the LF, and as long that the bcharre wouldn't usurp the LF, it may very well become what it was meant to be.

without samir jeajea and his narrow circle, there are no issues with the LF.

without the northen voters
ouwat have less votes base than kataeb man

between jbeil to baabda, kataeb almost equals ouwat

add to to that lack of money and hey, its pretty much done in the heart land
 

HannaTheCrusader

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
Unfortunately, Geagea got away with only 11 years in jail.
So maybe his illness is karma's way of completing unfinished business. A divine retribution.

Good riddance. I hope it's painless but terminal.

i wihs the same upon uyour leaders and people
let them kee hiding like rats and die picked one by one

ga3ga3 is my opponent and will fight him till the end
but will never ever wish him death

if someone deserves to die in lebanon
its berri and jumblat, with berri being the worst
 

Dark Angel

Legendary Member
without the northen voters
ouwat have less votes base than kataeb man

between jbeil to baabda, kataeb almost equals ouwat

add to to that lack of money and hey, its pretty much done in the heart land
this is true, but in theory their biggest downfall is the very person of samir jeajea and his close entourage. i do not wish him ill, but god forbids something happens to him, chances are he will be replaced by sethrida; she does not have what it takes to lead the party though. but just at the offhand chance that things proceed down a different path and a worthy person assumes leadership, the party does stand for something.
 

joseph_lubnan

Legendary Member
Let's just say, LF has already gone through many leadership changes and was not built around a person, and has much deeper roots, and a longer history of purpose than FPM. Let's see if FPM can even survive its first succession without splintering like rotten wood. The experience with its elections, and stories about internal bickering do not bode well, and then you have someone like Bassil killing any democratic spirit and modern party organization and shaping Tayyar like his personal neofeudal clan! :)
 

Patriot

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
Let's just say, LF has already gone through many leadership changes and was not built around a person, and has much deeper roots, and a longer history of purpose than FPM. Let's see if FPM can even survive its first succession without splintering like rotten wood. The experience with its elections, and stories about internal bickering do not bode well, and then you have someone like Bassil killing any democratic spirit and modern party organization and shaping Tayyar like his personal neofeudal clan! :)

sure
and they were very peaceful transitions from a LF leader to another :) right ? :)
 

joseph_lubnan

Legendary Member
sure
and they were very peaceful transitions from a LF leader to another :) right ? :)

Of course I know the history, but that doesn't matter, my point is that it already happened, and LF already went through its evolution process, and crossed many phases already... and it was not always lead by a Bcherrani lol @HannaTheCrusader

At least it was not passed along like a neofeudal clan, father to son-in-law... and that has not completely happened yet because GMA is still in effect the leader and we will not see the effect of this heirdom transition until after he passes away ba3da 3omran tawil.
 
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freelebanonn

Legendary Member
Of course I know the history, but that doesn't matter, my point is that it already happened, and LF already went through its evolution process...
Disagree here . Pre geagea LF is different from Geagea LF. Geagea built a new LF that gathered around his persona same as aoun with FPM. Thats why he is still the leader until this day while he is not the actual founder of the association.
 
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