With every leadership shift, a lot of people loyal to the old leader will be sidelined in favour of people chosen by the new leader. And in Lebanon people are not mature enough to accept that their role will always have an end, so they start a rebel then leave for good when they fail blaming the new leader for destructing the party and straying away from the path of the founder.LF will be hit much more. Gebran Bassil is becoming very popular within Aounist circles.
With GMA death many key FPMers will leave and i only see the party getting divided to pieces such as koudama el tayyar, asdika2 el 3imad aoun, al haraka al tashihiya fi el tayyar, asdika2 ibrahim kanaan and so on. The party will get a huge hit but will survive somehow.
On the other hand, geagea did not succeed in building a true party ma3 heykaliye wad7a w nizam w intikhabet. So if he dies now LF will be torn to pieces and setrida wont be able to save it .