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The EastMed gas: Paving the way for prosperity or more disastrous regional conflicts?

O Brother

O Brother

Legendary Member
The eastern Mediterranean gas seems to be the latest regional game changer in the region..
So it is good to follow all the latest regional news regarding this and not just focus on Lebanon so we can better grasp what is happening at home.

Who are the key international players involved like EU, USA, Russia etc.. if we try to map them out to get a broader picture on this..
What new alliances are forming from all this in the region and how are they categorized?
What are the names of the major companies involved? like France's Total, Italy's Eni, BP, Russia's Novatek.... ?
What are the ongoing disputes? Like there is the Turkish dispute with EU (Cyprus, so called Israel).
And then there is the Lebanese "Israeli" dispute on block 9.

While all this is about Europe being energy hungry and Russia being the main supplier to Europe which gives Russia huge influence over Europe.
And obviously the US is against Russia gaining such important influence over Europe and for the last years EU and the US have been busy trying to decrease this Russian influence by constructing new pipelines like the latest Azerbaijani pipeline project to europe.

Now with the EastMed gas, Russia would obviously not want to lose its influence over Europe so the question is, what will Russia try to do to prevent it from succeeding and how far are they willing to go with this? And their Syrian/Libyan interference is it all about the new geopolitics the EastMed gas created?

Where or which side would you like Lebanon to be in all of this?
What do you think the best alliances between the EastMed countries should look like?

For now these are the alliance maps... (please correct me if I'm wrong):
The Western alliance: Egypt, Greece/Cyprus, Lebanon and so called Israel.
The Russian alliance: Syria, Libya/Haftar
The Turkish alliance: Northern Cyprus, Libya (GNA).

Now obviously these alliances are much more complicated than this..
Like Lebanon might be in the "western alliance" but there is again dispute on block 9.
 
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    • SAVO

    SAVO

    Member
    Thats an interesting argument..i already discussed some of its aspects regarding italy energy geopolitics in the thread :https://www.oroom.org/forum/threads/china-to-eradicate-poverty-by-2020.56610/page-2

    Talking from a.lebanese standpoint..
    All alliances that you stated above are valid ..
    Lebanon geopolitical interest is either with one or another.. with syria / russia and with eu and the west.
    The main issue is the conflict with israel on bloc 9.. another aspect is no less important and it regard the lebanese internal politics..
    Lebanon must settle its internal issues first regarding hizballa and its army before any geopolitical approach .. and such strategy can be done through a political and military accore with syria based on mutual respect a reciprocal interests. The political system must be changed and i hope that a leftist front rise to power in lebanon and take this approach.
    Second, a sort of accord with cyprus, egypt and greece for the east med pipeline..
    On the long term lebanon can become a hub for maritime transport ( from middle east toward eu ) and its airport as a transit scale.
    So interest of lebanon between the EU , north africa and levantine countries..
    The political decision makers in lebanon must be able to play within those limit and to maintain some equilibrum and a very thin line of autonomy of decision.. but they need to do so in name of welfare of lebanese people and the people interest and not the bankers or warlords or some wealthy corrupy politician.. otherwise it wont work.
     
    SAVO

    SAVO

    Member
    now there is a geopolitical conflict between greece from one part and turkey - lybia accord fromanother part ..
    seems that lybia sarraj asked military help from turkey against Haftar -
     
    O Brother

    O Brother

    Legendary Member
    SAVO said:
    now there is a geopolitical conflict between greece from one part and turkey - lybia accord fromanother part ..
    seems that lybia sarraj asked military help from turkey against Haftar -
    Click to expand...

    Well I don't blame Turkey there is a huge alliance going on between Italy, Greece, Greek Cyprus and so called Israel taking place with huge support from Nato!
    Turkey is being treated like a second class member and constantly sidelined in Nato at least since 2010 for some reason!

    Lebanon on the other hand is in a big dilemma it must be or even forced to be in this Western alliance but in this alliance Lebanon best interests will not be regarded in the best way that serve Lebanon's interests but they will consider what serve their Western colonial state aka "Israel".

    The EastMed geopolitics is still shaping but from the look of it the Italy, Greek/Cyprus and Israel are leading this front and are well prepared and are getting themselves even more prepared for tomorrow on all fronts!

    If only Egypt, Turkey, Libya Lebanon and Russia could form an alliance against the Western alliance to confront it but seems like this wont be happening any time soon or ever! And this is why the other alliance headed by Nato is winning!

    As for the Libyan conflict adding to it the EastMed makes no sense to me with all the spaghetti alliances.. too f complicated..
     
    SAVO

    SAVO

    Member
    O Brother said:
    Well I don't blame Turkey there is a huge alliance going on between Italy, Greece, Greek Cyprus and so called Israel taking place with huge support from Nato!
    Turkey is being treated like a second class member and constantly sidelined in Nato at least since 2010 for some reason!

    Lebanon on the other hand is in a big dilemma it must be or even forced to be in this Western alliance but in this alliance Lebanon best interests will not be regarded in the best way that serve Lebanon's interests but they will consider what serve their Western colonial state aka "Israel".

    The EastMed geopolitics is still shaping but from the look of it the Italy, Greek/Cyprus and Israel are leading this front and are well prepared and are getting themselves even more prepared for tomorrow on all fronts!

    If only Egypt, Turkey, Libya Lebanon and Russia could form an alliance against the Western alliance to confront it but seems like this wont be happening any time soon or ever! And this is why the other alliance headed by Nato is winning!

    As for the Libyan conflict adding to it the EastMed makes no sense to me with all the spaghetti alliances.. too f complicated..
    Click to expand...
    Good analysis..
    Yesterday there was some trouble in montenegro.. the Nato behind it..and it is related to this whole issue.
    I agree that the game is too complicated.. and i add to u that italy didnt step in as it seems to be ( and france is pushing into this direction).. for italy the game is open on all fronts.. especially ib libia.
     
    O Brother

    O Brother

    Legendary Member
    SAVO said:
    Good analysis..
    Yesterday there was some trouble in montenegro.. the Nato behind it..and it is related to this whole issue.
    I agree that the game is too complicated.. and i add to u that italy didnt step in as it seems to be ( and france is pushing into this direction).. for italy the game is open on all fronts.. especially ib libia.
    Click to expand...

    Ya in Libya the alliances are still shaping from the look of it and will radically change in the coming months or maybe years..
    There are also conflicting news abut Algerian-Tunisian-Turkish alliance which I think the Turks are pushing for but the EU will make sure it won't happen so easily. So lots of shit happening!

    And Egypt so far under Sisi is in total Westerm dominance and Sisi will do whatever his Western masters demands him to do even though Egypt's gas reserves is the biggest in the MedEast but are total western puppet!
    I think as long Egypt is in their hand it will be hard to gain ground over this for Turkey or Russia!

    I think Italy, if we put Libya aside is already all in with Greece, Cyprus and so called Israel.
     
    SAVO

    SAVO

    Member
    Last years italy was supporting al sarraj in libia..now with the new govern it ripositionned itself in equidistance from both sarraj haftar.. next month we have a crucial regional election that will shape the internal equilibrum and the decision making ( more russian oriented or more EU oriented) .the big question is ..how turkey and the russians will behave in libia?

    Regarding greece and israel ..i agree .. whatever is the outcome italy is in this axis.
    But that mean Nato is going to explode ..if turkey is out ..which i personally dont mind ..ill celebrate that with a bottle of good spumante ( italian champagne ;) )
     
    SAVO

    SAVO

    Member
    Egypt have a big problem with ethiopia... and they need the west for that
     
    SAVO

    SAVO

    Member
    Lebanon is not a player ..their interest is to resolve the maritime dispute ..and not to be aligned with an israeli axis..
    Their interest i with syria russia and iran..mainly economic.
    If they rely on cedar 3 ..they will be hostage of the western axis..
     
    SAVO

    SAVO

    Member
    i ll post in brief what the site of the ministry of defence is saying (italian position)

    1-this italian warship was in larnaca from 06 till 09 december in a mission of sorveillance for the maritime borders in respect of accords with friendly countries (..)
    1577488134360.png

    2- the accord between lybia and turkey is a big obstacle for the project of eastmed between israel-cyprus-greece-italy

    1577488257682.png

    3. the definition of the ZEE zone between cyprus, greece and egypt was always considered a threat by turkey whi in various time sent warships and research ships for gas in the greek cypriot maritiem borders where already exists ships for various companies included ENI and Total.
     
    SAVO

    SAVO

    Member
    1577488783463.png

    turkey reclaim its right considering the extension of its coasts .. while in turn , greece reclaim that the accord is invalid based on their sovreignity on the island of Kastellorizo (the yellow point on the map).

    9 december the minister of foreign affair declared that the lybian turkish accord is not valid . since it is signed between 2 parts without discussing with greece .
     
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