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The EastMed gas: Paving the way for prosperity or more disastrous regional conflicts?

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    • O Brother

    O Brother

    Legendary Member
    Manifesto said:
    Another row between EU and Turkey looming on the horizon?
    Click to expand...
    Probably, lets wait few days and see where it is heading.. the news outlets are so far saying there are no disputes in that zone.. but this might change soon if it is close as some are claiming on social media!
     
    SAVO

    SAVO

    Member
    where is lebanon interest from this conflict in the east mediterranean.
     
    O Brother

    O Brother

    Legendary Member
    SAVO said:
    where is lebanon interest from this conflict in the east mediterranean.
    Click to expand...
    Definitely not within the Western lead alliance headed by France (which includes so called israel) but it seems like it is the only option for the typical narrowed Lebanese mindset!

    Is Lebanon even allowed to think differently?



    SAVO said:
    who are turkey allies in lebanon or the parts that turkey can rely on ?
    Click to expand...

    I don't think they have any reliable allies in Lebanon but they have popular support among sunni for sure!
    So far all these claims that turkey is arming whoever is not proven and only political cheap talk to fight a new emerging competitor!

    Yes turkey is trying to enter the Lebanese scenes but it is all still in its early stages..
    And obviously their rivalries like Iran and others like France, KSA and others will try to sabotage it!
     
    SAVO

    SAVO

    Member
    O Brother said:

    Click to expand...
    i think that turkey have an interest in north lebanon to connect it to edlib region ..
    sunni of lebanon would split among the turkey qatar axis ( MUSLIM Brotherhood) and saudi-emirate axis ( hariri and Co )
    im interested to know where do sunni leaders stands ( for example ashraf rifi ,salafies , etc )
    where would he pro syrian sunni stand ( karami etc )
    and in case , the syrian allies wet dream is another Sin- Sin accord in an anti turkish alliance ..
     
    O Brother

    O Brother

    Legendary Member
    SAVO said:
    i think that turkey have an interest in north lebanon to connect it to edlib region ..
    sunni of lebanon would split among the turkey qatar axis ( MUSLIM Brotherhood) and saudi-emirate axis ( hariri and Co )
    im interested to know where do sunni leaders stands ( for example ashraf rifi ,salafies , etc )
    where would he pro syrian sunni stand ( karami etc )
    and in case , the syrian allies wet dream is another Sin- Sin accord in an anti turkish alliance ..
    Click to expand...
    That's far fetched man.. at least in this moment it is..
    Connecting Tripoli with Idlib means Homs and Hamah falling under sunni rule which is a direct threat to the Assad regime and the alawite stronghold which also cut them from Damascus.. So for the Russians this is a big no, NO!

    The Muslim Brotherhood are extremely weak and do not have strong popular support in Lebanon.. They still have to manage getting popular support through their own "social services" and helping the poor! So ya there could be for sure a ground for the MB in Tripoli and Aakar in the near future!

    Ashraf rifi is not as strong as people like to think he is.. he is ending becoming just another Ahdab!
    Karami is not something to count on either..
    As for Salafies it is very complicated and are not easily controlled add to it the different type of salafist there are out there..
    Usually or in some cases the Salafist are more used as tool by different countries to indirectly orchestrate their moves.. more like carrot and stick..

    Turkey will for sure try to fill in the Saudi absence in Lebanon.. And Turkey seems more like they will be trying to invest more in sunni regions something KSA and Arabs didn't do!
     
    SAVO

    SAVO

    Member
    O Brother said:
    That's far fetched man.. at least in this moment it is..
    Connecting Tripoli with Idlib means Homs and Hamah falling under sunni rule which is a direct threat to the Assad regime and the alawite stronghold which also cut them from Damascus.. So for the Russians this is a big no, NO!

    The Muslim Brotherhood are extremely weak and do not have strong popular support in Lebanon.. They still have to manage getting popular support through their own "social services" and helping the poor! So ya there could be for sure a ground for the MB in Tripoli and Aakar in the near future!

    Ashraf rifi is not as strong as people like to think he is.. he is ending becoming just another Ahdab!
    Karami is not something to count on either..
    As for Salafies it is very complicated and are not easily controlled add to it the different type of salafist there are out there..
    Usually or in some cases the Salafist are more used as tool by different countries to indirectly orchestrate their moves.. more like carrot and stick..

    Turkey will for sure try to fill in the Saudi absence in Lebanon.. And Turkey seems more like they will be trying to invest more in sunni regions something KSA and Arabs didn't do!
    Click to expand...
    my point that Assad may rule in syria for a while ..be he is a weak ruler
    investing on sunni region by turks looks like a long term strategy..after all majority of syrians are sunni and muslim brotherhood are the main opposition force to assad regime .

    the game is still at the begning and the players are many..

    iran interest is against israeli uae saudi alliance
    assad interest against turkey -qatar MB alliance
    russia interest is to contrast NATO expansion to its borders ( ukraine and now bielorussia )

    italy have a lot of support of MB ( qatar fnancment in milan , army deals , lybia interest in gas accords ) where they were the biggest losers from lybia war against gheddafi.

    turkey interest is in contrast with EU ( france italy greece ) and egypt-israel
     
    Last edited:
    O Brother

    O Brother

    Legendary Member
    SAVO said:
    my point that Assad may rule in syria for a while ..be he is a weak ruler
    investing on sunni region by turks looks like a long term strategy..after all majority of syrians are sunni and muslim brotherhood are the main opposition force to assad regime .

    the game is still at the begning and the players are many..

    iran interest is against israeli uae saudi alliance
    assad interest against turkey -qatar MB alliance
    russia interest is to contrast NATO expansion to its borders ( ukraine and now bielorussia )

    italy have a lot of support of MB ( qatar fnancment in milan , army deals , lybia interest in gas accords ) where they were the biggest losers from lybia war against gheddafi.

    turkey interest is in contrast with EU ( france italy greece ) and egypt-israel
    Click to expand...
    Also there are other ongoing events worth mentioning regarding the Levant and Iraq regions which Iran is trying to change and upset the demographics to its favor to establish a long lasting stronghold stretching from iran.. now whether they will succeed to maintain it is still open to see in the coming years!

    The Iranian would want a foot in the Mediterranean extending it from Iran but Turkey is not much fond of that obviously So the Turkish and Iranian rivalry for the Levant region seems like will cause even more bloodshed in the future!

    We are simply destined to war.. adding to it all the East Med gas it will become even messier with all different players each with their interest and agenda!

    Sadly the Levant as whole not belonging to any kind of multinational union or having its own union will keep this region a playground for everybody..
     
    Lebanon_not_Arabic

    Lebanon_not_Arabic

    Well-Known Member
    Ya3ne we’re stuck between Güle güle and khosh amadid…. mwaff2in!


    Ya Yvonne, wein el shanta?🧳
     
    baleha

    baleha

    Well-Known Member
    السفينة اسمها "فاتح" كمان ؟! يا سبحان ألله
    this part of the world is really going crazier than it ever was

    O Brother said:
    لأول مرة وفي مكان غير متوقع... أردوغان يعلن المفاجأة التي وعد بها الشعب

    كشف الرئيس التركي رجب طيب أردوغان، عن المفاجأة التي وعد بها الشعب التركي قبل يومين، والتي ظهرت في مكان لم يكن في الحسبان على حد قوله.

    وقال أردوغان في كلمة له عقب صلاة الجمعة إن "تركيا اكتشفت أكبر مخزون للغاز الطبيعي في تاريخها في البحر الأسود، فقد اكتشفت سفينة فاتح مخزون غاز يقدر بـ320 مليار متر مكعب في البحر الأسود".




    وأضاف أردوغان "منذ سنوات ننقب عن الطاقة بواسطة سفن صنعناها بأنفسنا، وفتح الله لنا طاقة خير كبيرة في مكان لم يكن بالحسبان".




    كشف الرئيس التركي رجب طيب أردوغان، عن المفاجأة التي وعد بها الشعب التركي قبل يومين، والتي ظهرت في مكان لم يكن في الحسبان على حد قوله.

    وقال أردوغان في كلمة له عقب صلاة الجمعة إن "تركيا اكتشفت أكبر مخزون للغاز الطبيعي في تاريخها في البحر الأسود، فقد اكتشفت سفينة فاتح مخزون غاز يقدر بـ320 مليار متر مكعب في البحر الأسود".


    وأضاف أردوغان "منذ سنوات ننقب عن الطاقة بواسطة سفن صنعناها بأنفسنا، وفتح الله لنا طاقة خير كبيرة في مكان لم يكن بالحسبان".

    وشدد أردوغان على أن "الطاقة مهمة جدا لتأسيس الاستقلال الوطني، وتكتسب أهمية كبيرة في تحقيق الاستقلال الوطني إلى جانب كونها عنصرا رئيسيا في التنمية".


    وتابع "نفذنا كامل عملية التنقيب بإمكانات وطنية، وليس لدينا أدنى تبعية خارجية في أعمال البحث والتنقيب. انتقلنا لمصاف أبرز الدول في العالم من خلال سفينة الفاتح التي نعيش بفضلها فرحة اليوم وكذلك سفينتي ياووز والقانوني، ونهدف إلى أن يصل الغاز التركي المكتشف إلى المواطنين بحلول عام 2023".

    وقال الرئيس التركي إن "المؤشرات الأولية لاكتشاف أكبر حقل غاز تشير إلى احتمال كبير لوجود حقول أخرى في نفس المنطقة".

    كان الرئيس رجب طيب أردوغان، أبلغ المسؤولين التنفيذيين بقطاع الطاقة، أمس الأربعاء، أنه سيعلن "أنباء طيبة"، يوم الجمعة، ستكون إيذانا ببداية "عصر جديد" لتركيا - في تصريحات رفعت أسهم شركات الطاقة التركية والليرة.


    ولم يذكر أردوغان التفاصيل، لكن مصدرين قالا لوكالة "رويترز" إنه كان يتحدث عن كشف للغاز في البحر الأسود، وأوضح أحدهما أن حجم الاحتياطيات قد يلبي حاجات تركيا من الطاقة لعشرين عاما.


    تعمل سفينة التنقيب التركية فاتح منذ أواخر يوليو/ تموز في منطقة الاستكشاف "تونة-1"، التي تبعد نحو 100 ميل بحري إلى الشمال من الساحل التركي على غرب البحر الأسود.


    وقال مصدر: ثمة اكتشاف للغاز الطبيعي في البئر (تونة 1) الاحتياطي المتوقع 26 تريليون قدم مكعبة أو 800 مليار متر مكعب، وهو يلبي حاجات تركيا لنحو 20 عاما.


    لكنه حذر من أن بدء الإنتاج قد يستغرق من سبع إلى عشر سنوات، وقدر التكاليف الاستثمارية بما بين مليارين وثلاثة مليارات دولار.



    ولم يذكر المسؤولون بمن فيهم وزير الطاقة، فاتح دونماز، تفاصيل عن الإعلان المنتظر يوم الجمعة، قائلين إن أردوغان سيكشف عن "المفاجأة" بنفسه.



    arabic.sputniknews.com

    لأول مرة وفي مكان غير متوقع... أردوغان يعلن المفاجأة التي وعد بها الشعب

    كشف الرئيس التركي رجب طيب أردوغان، عن المفاجأة التي وعد بها الشعب التركي قبل يومين، والتي ظهرت في مكان لم يكن في الحسبان على حد قوله.
    arabic.sputniknews.com arabic.sputniknews.com


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