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Featured The Iranian "interference/Wissaye" in Lebanese internal politics: Myth or fact?

Discussion in 'Lebanese Politics and Breaking News' started by Abou Sandal, Nov 8, 2017.

  1. Mighty Goat

    Mighty Goat Well-Known Member
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    This group you speak about are called al-Toufar meaning the outlaws. They preexisted HA. Most of them do not support either the state or HA. This problem is more related to state failure than HA and HA arms. The ones that had an interest in supporting HA financially were certainly the Southerners and not the Bekkaiis. This is not to say that the Bekaiis now do not support and help financially.

    But it is a gross oversimplification to say that Al Touffar are the main financiers of HA or that they exist and are covered because f HA.
     
  2. Aoune32!

    Aoune32! Member

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    I didn't say that the main financier of HA is from the Bekaa but they do support the party. Due to that support the party covers them and so does Amal.
     
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  3. Mighty Goat

    Mighty Goat Well-Known Member
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    This is a theory without evidence. HA does not cover them. The absence of a legitimate state is the main cause of drug gangs in Lebanon. Here I am not talking about the poor farmers growing Hashish of course. I am talking of drug gangs of Captagon and hard drugs.

    This is an issue associated with state failure. Just by attaching drug crime to Bikaii Shi'a and associating it with HA because of sect is racist.
     
  4. manifesto

    manifesto Active Member

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    The South is an Amal stronghold. Hezbollah's support comes from Baalbeck and Dahye.
     
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  5. Aoune32!

    Aoune32! Member

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    I am not racist against anyone. The pure resistance against Israel the LCP in the south were majority shia. enta just blame the state for everything. Typical lebanese. Kello 7a2 3al state bas guess what??? The politicians are the state. Blame the MPs of the area which don't do shit for the area except whine about the state while they are in it. Baalbeck/Hermel and the South and Dahiye have been won by the shia duo since the 90s. They havent done shit. Keep on giving your children for the Iranian revolution..... go to the north and you see real poverty. No one paid for our houses to be rebuilt. Go see akkar, tripoli, dinnieh, etc etc
     
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  6. Abou Sandal

    Abou Sandal Legendary Member
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    That's a very dangerous thing to do. It's not wise at all. I have no shred of doubt that you will lose, yet still, I consider it dangerous and unwise, no matter who wins or loses.

    This is not a simple yes or no issue. And it's definetly not a simple matter of majority against minority. It's more complicated than that, and it demands a National consensus to solve it properly.
     
  7. Abou Sandal

    Abou Sandal Legendary Member
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    Bass 1 copy?...Lek Wen Ba3dik...:lol:
     
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  8. LiNk

    LiNk Well-Known Member

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    You are right my friend, all we have is press reports. And we both know how manipulative that can be, I give you that. However, taking an Iranian perspective, here is the logic of how I see it:

    The Houthis are not only enemies of one of Iran’s biggest regional foes, but are also religiously predominantly Shia and face a struggle in a weak and chaotic state: a perfect ground for Iran to export its influence and score geopolitical points. Therefore, it invests itself in the way it sees fit.

    At the same time, since the 80’s, one of Iran’s most successful investments has been Hezbollah: interfering in a comparable situation in Lebanon back then as Yemen is in today, it successfully nurtured a formidable force allowing it to expand its influence to the Levant and put Israel under pressure.

    Today, the Houthis are showing substantial potential to become another “Hezbollah” at the gates of Iran’s second foe, Saudi Arabia. As any “rational investor” would think, it is only natural that they would seek to leverage existing best practices and expertise. To top it off, the ideological proximity and the seemingly passionate discourse over Yemen of many of our fellow citizens (even on this forum) are prime facilitating factors.

    Therefore, albeit I would tend to agree with you that there is no substantial proof yet (as in a public declaration, or like for Syria, casualties starting to surface), the prevailing context and organizational construct would make some sort of cooperation more than rational and even likely. Even if Hezbollah openly supports the Yemeni cause, without any proven direct involvement, it will also naturally attract further animosity.

    In short, coming back to the topic of this thread, the construct and foreign Iranian support to Hezbollah are natural magnets for many of our actual troubles. Even assuming no direct involvement, I do think that “toning it down” on anything unrelated to Lebanon can come a long way in shielding our country from regional turbulences. Heck, with everyone busy, this is even an excellent opportunity for us to build something lasting.

    Also for our social cohesion, it's worrisome when many Lebanese start to gradually feel themselves being shoved into a struggle they neither care about nor identify with, especially when considering their order of imminent priorities.
     
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  9. Mighty Goat

    Mighty Goat Well-Known Member
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    The problem you face is evident. HA and the Shi'a are armed. They have a powerful state behind them. You have nobody behind you. You only have this failing state and its Christian leadership. You want to disarm the Shi'a, but you speak about them in a derogatory way as if you are the one that is armed and powerful. Do you think they will disarm because you are screaming. No they will not.

    Only when you demonstrate that your have respect for them as citizens in the state and you demonstrate that you are trustworthy they may negotiate with you. But really, with an attitude like yours they will not disarm. They will keep their weapons to protect themselves from the gang in the state.
     
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  10. Mighty Goat

    Mighty Goat Well-Known Member
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    And in your expert opinion Dayhiyeh people come from Beirut or from the South?
     
  11. manifesto

    manifesto Active Member

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    You think Aounists would vote in favor of Hezbollah keeping their arms?
    Without Aoun's support, Hezbollah are a minority in the country.
     
  12. Mighty Goat

    Mighty Goat Well-Known Member
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    Hezbollah is a minority, their arms are supported by the majority. This is the issue at hand.
     
  13. manifesto

    manifesto Active Member

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    The difference between Aoun and M14 vis-à-vis Hizbullah's arms, is not in the objective, but in how they reach it.

    One of the terms of the MoU between Aoun and Nasrallah, is that Hezbollah disarms once Shebaa is liberated (no wonder Hizbullah is busy liberating Syria instead of Shebaa Farms. They're simply not in a hurry)

    M14 want Hizbullah to disarm at any cost.

    That's the main difference. But I can tell you the average Aounist on the street hates Hizbullah's arms as much as the next Phalangist or LFer.
     
  14. Mighty Goat

    Mighty Goat Well-Known Member
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    Problematically, March 14 lack diplomacy and realism. With such lack they cannot disarm HA. They are highly dependent on foreign states declaring war on HA as a strategy to disarm. This strategy backfires as it confirm the necessity for armament.

    March 14 do not have a domestic strategy to deal with armament. They are all Saudi puppets, claiming to be sovereignists. We know their concept of sovereignty is a joke after we saw that Lebanon is not sovereign with the Saudi farce of the resignation of Harii.
     
  15. zero

    zero New Member

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    w meen allak its not a fake agreement to begin with? just to please some aounists. only way shebaa is liberated is through diplomacy.
     
  16. Aoune32!

    Aoune32! Member

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    I dont want anyone behind me. I want the state and only the state. I want the Army and only the Army. We are not a failed country but a failed society. We do things to fuck up the country. We dont put it first and last. The problem is with the people not the regime.
     
  17. Mighty Goat

    Mighty Goat Well-Known Member
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    Just check the sectarian manners Christians project on this Forum when they speak about Shi'a who are their fellow citizens. Then ask yourself if the Shi'a do feel safe with your state. You have the command of the Army and the Presidency.

    The Shi'a would necessarily arm themselves to protect themselves from some euphoric Christians that derogate them and treat them like trash. You should establish trust before you demand disarmament. The Shi'a do not trust you because historically Christians in Lebanon were involved in ethnic cleansing against them.

    You need to work on yourself and your attitude, before you ask them to disarm.
     
  18. Aoune32!

    Aoune32! Member

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    The shia can stay armed just don't blame anyone if the country erupts into civil war. The shia have no one to blame except themselves. Have their arms really brought any change to their community? Has it made it better? Has it taken them out of the poverty that they live in??? Nothing has changed. HA is a foreign entity covered up with Lebanese people.

    So due to this lack of trust HA wants to take the role of the President? The LAF General? We are waiting for the time when this comes. You will be in for a surprise. All what HA is doing is making all the sects im Lebanon against them. Soon they will have no friends in Lebanon except for Amal and SSNP.
     
  19. Mighty Goat

    Mighty Goat Well-Known Member
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    This type of response is not realist. It is clear that there is near universal support for armament in Lebanon, except for the decadent parties of the civil war like Phalanges, and Lebanese Forces who assume disarmament is an option.

    The issue of regulating armament is brought about by the Sunnis, who want to maintain executive power, and are allying with Saudi. This only FM. This is also not a call for disarmament. Other Sunni factions in Lebanon do support HA armament.

    Your focus on Christian positions rather than realizing causes of armament makes your arguments unrealistic. HA clearly does not want either the role of the President, or the LAF command. They are content with being armed outside the boundaries of the state. This is your problem, but as I mentioned you lack a strategy to resolve the problem, while taking into account causes leading to armament.
     
  20. Aoune32!

    Aoune32! Member

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    You can go around and around as much as you like. Make excuses as much as you want. HA is a foreign entity and should be disarmed. Plain and simple. You have the majority of the people in the country against their arms. Only the shia are with them.
     

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