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The October 17 "Thawra", One Year Later: What Has It Achieved?

Tayyar9

Legendary Member
They have a choice. instead they chose to side with corrupt leaders like Hariri.

FPM had the most ministers and the majority parliament seats, yet all they did was talk.

so again why were they ok with Salemeh staying in power? why now are they ok with nominating Hariri as PM again?
Man please stop simplifying everything. You know very well they were not with Salameh staying in power, but all the others were. What were they supposed to do, especially without the support of the people? And please don't tell they should've resigned, because that is the stupidest thing they could ever do.
Change will only come when there is a real awakening from the people. Every single problem we have faced over the years, especially in the last 10 years, GMA talked about it beforehand. The corruption, the need to implement reforms, the economical problem. Nobody cared to listen! It wasn't until it was too late that people started to revolt, and unfortunately, they revolted against GMA.
 

GrumpForTrump

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter

Nzalo 3al sheri3 kelkon ya bajam, including FPMers. Shu natrin?

Ana ready.
 

Dr. Strangelove

Nuclear War Expert
Staff member
The main


Come on @Dr. Strangelove

the Thawra exposed all of what you are saying. It also exposed the ponzi scheme the government was supporting. It did not hasten anything, Lebanon was a ticking time bomb and the bomb exploded. Covid19 was the nail in the coffin.

What do you expect people to do when the fires happened and then the government decides to put more austerity measures on the population? like increasing VAT and the ludicrous whatsapp tax. sit and do nothing? People were fed up.

Forget about Gino and Pierre Hashash, let them talk, but talk to people who were there and had nothing to lose, especially that many are unemployed and even don't have any money to put food on the table. You are saying it's the thawra's fault the men in their mid 20s and early 30s don't have jobs and have been sitting in cafes drinking argileh till 3 am in the morning for the past 4 years? Hyperinflation and buying Listerine at the price of 50,000 lira is also the Thawra's fault? capital controls and no more USD reserves are because of those pesky grumpy protesters?

come on man.
For the very fleeting moments where the "thawra" was actually being productive, it shone a light on corruption - most of the time, corruption that the FPM was already fighting (examples: breaking down the Eden Bay walls, as the seaside/riverside property trespasses has been a consistent target of the FPM). Those moments even made people like me want to join in, but I think you would agree that those moments were the exception, not the norm. You can maybe understand, then, our continued frustration at the complete inability of the "thawra" to, if not organize itself into a useful movement, at least back legitimate anti-corruption initiatives to give them a chance to succeed.

Overall, and whether it is its fault or not, I do believe the "thawra" encouraged massively the spread of misinformation and fake news. For this reason, I cannot bring myself to give them credit for exposing anything, even if our understanding of some things (like Riad Salemeh's Ponzi scheme) increased after October 17.

Finally, you are bringing up people's reasons for protesting as if I'm arguing that they had no right to do so. I never said that. What I'm doing is holding those who declared they wanted change and made us pay such a high price for it accountable for how counter-productive and downright destructive their actions were at the end. How irresponsible their inability to live up to their slogans still is. What goals has the "thawra" achieved after all this time? What steps has it taken towards that? If it has so far failed, and I believe it has, what are people doing to rectify it?
 

Dr. Strangelove

Nuclear War Expert
Staff member
Organizing into parties, or joining already existing parties that are in opposition, is a long process that takes more than a year - specially in a country like Lebanon. And that would happen once elections is near. There already are groups with common vision gathered all around the place, and it takes time (and elections in sight) to put out the framework of evolving that into a political movement / party.

Don't get me wrong, these people in the so-called Thawra proved to be extremely foolish and amateurish, but you're holding them accountable for more than what's expected from a popular uprising... they did raise their voice to multiple issues, protested governments and policies, shut down the parliament session that wanted to approve the Pardon to all prisoners (many months ago - and you guys specifically attacked them on that day, 2al they prevented isla7at LUL).

But thats about it, that is the scope and limitation of their power... and they did that on the issues they deemed right / urgent... if u don't agree on what issues to focus on, tfaddal nzal push for that lol - leh baddak ghayrak to push for ur ideas? But the legal responsibility falls on the people with executive and legislative power. They're constitutionally the people who holds the key to change - until elections replace them (if ever).

Also most of the bullying, beating, arrests happened to the people of the uprising. From safarat, to being called FMers, LFers, to being shot... za3len 3a shwayyet verbal bullying (although unjustified)?

Don't forget to tweet the ثورة سرقها الزعران to contribute to the collective bullying that the uprising faced. Everyone from the "taba2a al 7akima" contributed to torpedoing the uprising, so when someone is pro-Someone in the ruling class, sorry I don't think he's entitled to being disappointed in the "Thawra" :p

مع فائق حبي واحترامي
<3
I'm sorry, but that is simply not good enough. Non-partisan opposition movements and protests started in 2015. The same people ran for parliament in 2018. October 17 was their chance to bring their political ambitions to fruition... Except that they were nowhere near ready. Maybe it was laziness. Maybe incompetence. Maybe they simply didn't have the will. The fact remains - we have yet to see to this day any real alternative to the current political system. All we've got instead is a bunch of crybabies on social media and covert partisan/foreign agents masquerading as "revolutionists".

You see, this is what drives me crazy. The "thawra" has no power, you say, but it does! It has the power to empower. One of he main reasons the FPM couldn't overcome the mafia state by itself was because it needed more popular support in the streets. I'm not saying the "thawra" needed to ally with the FPM (although, it my opinion, it should've), but at least fight the right battles! Instead, they got carried away by the mafia state media and attacked the only honest people in government - and you know they are.

As for your last point, I think everyone has the right to be disappointed by the "thawra", because we are paying the price for its shortcomings... Just as we are all paying the price for the mafia state's criminality. Also, many pro-"thawra" people I talked to, including several on this forum, attempt to justify the viciously disproportionate campaign against Aoun and Bassil by saying, "eh ma henne aktar 3alam wa3adouna bel teghyir." I think that is a stupid argument, but there you go. The "thawra" promised us it would change the country, and at the very beginning many of us believed it. Many FPMers actually joined the protests at first. One year on, and I see nothing but destruction. I wish it was different, believe me.
 

Dr. Strangelove

Nuclear War Expert
Staff member
Short answer: Nothing

But it was never their responsibility to achieve much in the first place. They tried but have no executive power and they wasted some chances to have any but you cannot blame a chaotic movement built on anger that it did not get organized in time these things take time especially when internal and external forces are trying to swing them in their direction.

You cannot blame someone for venting their anger towards an unbearable situation.
I can, especially when their anger was, in my opinion, completely misplaced. Their anger only worsened our situation. We all paid the price for their anger. One year on, and still no sign of their "anger" manifesting into anything productive. Actually, there is barely any sign of life at all coming from the "thawra", yet things are worse now than they ever were. Where is all the righteous anger when you need it?

For a movement to achieve something has nothing to do with executive power. All their actions have done was to empower the mafia state and exhaust what little time we had, instead of laying the groundwork for a true revolution - a new political system championed by a well organized, forward-thinking opposition.

If you ask me, nothing embodies that today better than the FPM, but that is a topic for a different thread.
 
For the very fleeting moments where the "thawra" was actually being productive, it shone a light on corruption - most of the time, corruption that the FPM was already fighting (examples: breaking down the Eden Bay walls, as the seaside/riverside property trespasses has been a consistent target of the FPM). Those moments even made people like me want to join in, but I think you would agree that those moments were the exception, not the norm. You can maybe understand, then, our continued frustration at the complete inability of the "thawra" to, if not organize itself into a useful movement, at least back legitimate anti-corruption initiatives to give them a chance to succeed.

Overall, and whether it is its fault or not, I do believe the "thawra" encouraged massively the spread of misinformation and fake news. For this reason, I cannot bring myself to give them credit for exposing anything, even if our understanding of some things (like Riad Salemeh's Ponzi scheme) increased after October 17.

Finally, you are bringing up people's reasons for protesting as if I'm arguing that they had no right to do so. I never said that. What I'm doing is holding those who declared they wanted change and made us pay such a high price for it accountable for how counter-productive and downright destructive their actions were at the end. How irresponsible their inability to live up to their slogans still is. What goals has the "thawra" achieved after all this time? What steps has it taken towards that? If it has so far failed, and I believe it has, what are people doing to rectify it?

Yet the Eden bay resort still went through. Why is FPM allowing the destruction of mountains (quarries) for useless mall projects? If you ever go through Metn el sari3 you will know what I'm talking about. Look at now, FPM having the majority and aren't able to form a government. A lot of able minded good people have already proposed ideas but they are not in power to impose them. Even some proposed alternatives to the Bisri Dam project, so why didn't FPM hear out those alternatives? are they this greedy that they and their allies would profit from a project that would turn into an economic/ecological disaster for Lebanon?

The system is corrupt that's why groups like FPM, FM, HA, Amal, LF and others thrive in such an environment. You just need to see it in a neutral point of view. the 17 October tharwa exposed this. Everyone spreads misinformation, narrowing it down to just the thawra is not seeing the misinformation, fake news and conspiracy theories coming out from the status quo. Do you want me to begin on how many times HA, FPM and LF spread fake news? so tell me, why did Aoun approve on renewing Salemeh's tenure? not one of you have been able to answer this question.

The thawra did not do anything destructive. Lebanon was sinking and it was a matter of time, thawra or not. All of what is happening today goes back to 30 years of central state corruption and sectarianism. What the thawra has achieved is that more and more people are becoming more disillusioned with the status quo and a lot are calling for change. This for me a small step when it happened, and to prove it even more is that after the terrible 4th of August blast in Beirut, people went down the streets to help and showed how much that we really don't care about the parliament or the government and we do not want to wait for them to offer assistance.
 
You see, this is what drives me crazy. The "thawra" has no power, you say, but it does! It has the power to empower. One of he main reasons the FPM couldn't overcome the mafia state by itself was because it needed more popular support in the streets. I'm not saying the "thawra" needed to ally with the FPM (although, it my opinion, it should've), but at least fight the right battles! Instead, they got carried away by the mafia state media and attacked the only honest people in government - and you know they are.

You allied yourself with a group that acts as a state within a state and has an army that threatens to go to war every now and then bringing Lebanon into useless conflicts

I am sorry, but you got your priorities wrong!!
 

Dr. Strangelove

Nuclear War Expert
Staff member
Yet the Eden bay resort still went through. Why is FPM allowing the destruction of mountains (quarries) for useless mall projects? If you ever go through Metn el sari3 you will know what I'm talking about. Look at now, FPM having the majority and aren't able to form a government. A lot of able minded good people have already proposed ideas but they are not in power to impose them. Even some proposed alternatives to the Bisri Dam project, so why didn't FPM hear out those alternatives? are they this greedy that they and their allies would profit from a project that would turn into an economic/ecological disaster for Lebanon?
What does the FPM have to do with mall projects? I don't understand the accusation.

How many times must we say this? The FPM never had any majority. I wish they did, but they don't. At its largest, the bloc (not even the party) occupied 29/128 of parliament. Hezbollah were never allies on the internal stage. Berri and his rabbits were never allies with the FPM. This nonsense has to stop, khalas wlo.

The Besri dam was never going to be an "ecological disaster" - that is just false. It, like any dam, had an initial environmental cost that would be recouped as time went by. The real disaster was that it was stopped. What alternatives were proposed to the Besri dam? Subterranean reservoirs are exploited to the point of exhaustion and simply not feasible for the amount of water needed. What else was proposed and was not heard? And please explain how the FPM was benefiting from the Besri dam project, again?
so tell me, why did Aoun approve on renewing Salemeh's tenure? not one of you have been able to answer this question.
I have personally answered this question more times than I can count, right here on the forum. Aoun and the FPM did not "approve" Salemeh's renewal in that sense. At every juncture, they were the only ones who opposed it, and very publicly. People accused the FPM repeatedly of trying to take over the state, remember? Foreign diplomats stepped in every time to defend the son of a *****, remember? At the end of the day, if every single party in government, including the PM, wants to renew for Salemeh, Aoun has no choice but to sign on it, short of irresponsibly grid-locking the whole government - and then being cursed by the mafia state media zombies for it!
 

Dr. Strangelove

Nuclear War Expert
Staff member
You allied yourself with a group that acts as a state within a state and has an army that threatens to go to war every now and then bringing Lebanon into useless conflicts

I am sorry, but you got your priorities wrong!!
We can both criticize FPM's ill-fated alliance with Hezbollah all we want, but what does it have to do with the "thawra"? Whataboutism will not justify the "thawra" shortcomings.
 
What does the FPM have to do with mall projects? I don't understand the accusation.

How many times must we say this? The FPM never had any majority. I wish they did, but they don't. At its largest, the bloc (not even the party) occupied 29/128 of parliament. Hezbollah were never allies on the internal stage. Berri and his rabbits were never allies with the FPM. This nonsense has to stop, khalas wlo.

The Besri dam was never going to be an "ecological disaster" - that is just false. It, like any dam, had an initial environmental cost that would be recouped as time went by. The real disaster was that it was stopped. What alternatives were proposed to the Besri dam? Subterranean reservoirs are exploited to the point of exhaustion and simply not feasible for the amount of water needed. What else was proposed and was not heard? And please explain how the FPM was benefiting from the Besri dam project, again?

I have personally answered this question more times than I can count, right here on the forum. Aoun and the FPM did not "approve" Salemeh's renewal in that sense. At every juncture, they were the only ones who opposed it, and very publicly. People accused the FPM repeatedly of trying to take over the state, remember? Foreign diplomats stepped in every time to defend the son of a *****, remember? At the end of the day, if every single party in government, including the PM, wants to renew for Salemeh, Aoun has no choice but to sign on it, short of irresponsibly grid-locking the whole government - and then being cursed by the mafia state media zombies for it!

illegal stone quarries and destruction of mountains (stone quarries owned by active politicians, not only FPM but also PSP and others). 29/128 is still a large number to have a voice, especially that you are allied with HA who are your biggest supporters.

The Besri Dam was always going to be an ecological/economic disaster. Dams are prone to fat tails and they are fragile with hidden risks, especially that Lebanon lies in a geological faultline hence any anti-earthquake sophistication will not stop a natural event from destroying it. Secondly, the world bank has tried to fund two of those projects before and non has been completed. I can go on , but have a read on here on why a dam project is a bad idea (PDF) What You Should Know About Megaprojects and Why: An Overview.

Aoun had no choice? of course he had a choice. The country went into vacuum for 2 years for him to get elected as a president, he can't do it for replacing Salemeh? He could refuse to sign the renewal.


We can both criticize FPM's ill-fated alliance with Hezbollah all we want, but what does it have to do with the "thawra"? Whataboutism will not justify the "thawra" shortcomings.

Not on about "Whataboutism" , just replying to your comment.
 
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