The Shia situation: Amal revival ? Or new Non-Sectarian street ?

[illusion84]

When all of this started the big anger in the Shia street was directed toward Amal movement. Berri and his wife were the first to be cursed. Amal MPs offices and institutions got attacked and even burned.
Amal reaction was sending armed militia to terrorise the protestors but the anger was too high that no one cave in.

At this point in time I genuinely thought that Amal was finished.

After this initial reaction, Amal was sidelined, Nabih Berri did not speak, nor did he send his thugs under his own name.

Here came the real power behind the Shia duo; Hassan Nassrallah himself. He threatened the protestor the first time and second. He send his bullies and thugs under HA flag to crush protestors in Nabatieh and in DT. He is basically acting as any frighten Arab dictator that we have seen since 2011.

I know that the hardcore HA supporter do not mind this and probably they are proud of how strong they are; but in the eyes of many progressive shia; this was an eye opening.

Now the question who is going to gain from all of this? Will Amal organize themselves and absorb this shia "dissent" and provide the protection or call the need of the liberal and progressive shia? Or these liberals are smart enough to stop following sectarian corrupted parties and would follow an emerging non sectarian national parties?

If I was an Amal official I will take this opportunity to reform the corrupted party; cut off Randa and her goons; reestablish new progressive slogans; protect and talk to and in the name of the protestors ; and get out of HA banner.

 

[The Blind Monk]

@illusion84 sorry for the late action regarding your thread, we're mainly TRYING to keep the main thread as clean as possible as it goes so fast ...

 

[Anti Iran]

This revert back to a thread I opened few months ago: is Nabih Berri finished?
The truth is this the last time (at last) the Lebanese people will have the most corrupt man in Lebanon's history as speaker.

Nabih Berri's corruption is unequal to any other politician in Lebanon. Even Siniora and Joumblat and Mikati combined don't match the champ. Why so ? Depth and breadth.

Berri's corrupted hand touches many if not all lebanese sectors: Electricity, Oil, Gas, NSSF, Casino, Airport, Central Bank, Banks, weapons, drug smuggling, and many other activities beyond Lebanese borders in billion of dollars.

Now what about Amal movement ?

With the process of fighting against corruption having started thanks to the manifestation and hopefully 3ahed determination, many politicians within this party such as Ali Hassan Khalil, Randa Berri, etc. will be summoned.

Amal movement won't survive to the third generation (assuming moussa sadr was the first, l isteez the second). There is no succession plan, and billions of dollars to manage, so expect that assassinations, splits and many other good things within the party after Berri's departure will happen.

And I am telling you I cannot resist Jubilating when I learn the death of Berri and/or other of his cronies and asking the Lord to open the gates of inferno to welcome these into the eternal flames of hells.

Amen

 

[illusion84]

What is the alternative of Amal?

People used to think that Amal are the Zou3ran and the corrupt while HA are the clean wel 2edameh.

After the recent events many people opened their eyes.

I know that many think of Shia as a flock behind HA and Amal; bas that's not the case. Yes most of them are with an armed resistance because they do not believe in the lebanese armed forces and due to past experience with Israel. But not all of them are with the Shia duo and the 50% abstinence during elections talk about the silent majority.

Furthermore; ordinary Shia can not be with HA. Here I mean that they can not be party member. HA is more like private clan or a private sect with a set of ideological, social and religious conditions.

Most of the Shia are too liberal to be HA partisans.

The shia must have an alternative, a reformed Amal would be the best thing to attract shia voices, but I believe @Anti Iran is right; Amal is too corrupt to be reformed. So my bet or lets say my hope are on new cross sectarian lines party to emerge and to attract them.

 

[oldschool]

What alternative do you offer other than HA?

Touwtin will hurt Shias. Tejniss lej2in suriyin will hurt shias. Saudi-USA hegemony ensures that Shia return to Assaad days and worse.

The defeat of HA, unfortunately, ensures those 3 things.


LAw mazbut serna kelna wahad, you can offer alternatives.

But when youre chanting for idlib and for lej2in, nope.

 

[Lebmonage]

"Here came the real power behind the Shia duo; Hassan Nassrallah himself. He threatened the protestor the first time and second. He send his bullies and thugs under HA flag to crush protestors in Nabatieh and in DT. He is basically acting as any frighten Arab dictator that we have seen since 2011."

Those "crackdowns" were done by hotheads in Nabatiyyeh. Local decision. In Beirut, those guys would go to the protests deliberately to see what's going on and if anyone is cursing SHN. They took the law into their hands. SHN has asked them to leave the squares in his last speech. If he sent them, he won't have asked them to leave. It was their discretion they used to be there in the first and flex muscles using their hands. And these guys are not HA fighters. They're just supporters and maybe some, are members (not necessarily combatants). Can you imagine a HA fighter going to a square to use sticks on protesters? It will belittle their status. Those who defeated daesh and Israehell will not use sticks to beat protesters.

 

[Lebmonage]

"I know that the hardcore HA supporter do not mind this and probably they are proud of how strong they are; but in the eyes of many progressive shia; this was an eye opening."

Yes, it was not a good thing. and SHN did the eight thing to tell live on TV during his speech them to leave the squares. If he had sent them, he would have commanded them to leave secretly. Not appeal to them to leave on TV.

 

[Lebmonage]

"I know that many think of Shia as a flock behind HA and Amal; bas that's not the case. Yes most of them are with an armed resistance because they do not believe in the lebanese armed forces and due to past experience with Israel. But not all of them are with the Shia duo and the 50% abstinence during elections talk about the silent majority."

I largely agree with the above assertion. the Israehelli threat has unified the Shia behind Hezballah/Amal. Lack of confidence in the Lebanese state and the military makes them believe in Hezballah. The latter has proved to be a potent and effective force to protect Lebanon from external threats; both Israehell and Takfiris. This is the very reason why the Shia will not support any revolution or protest that targets the resistance. Any revolution or protest that targets the resistance is a political protest that will be viewed with suspicion and mistrust. The question of the resistance and its weapon is an internal issue that should be treated through internal Lebanese dialogue and a defense strategy. Not on the streets, not through protests and not through foreign dictates to rogue politicians and interference.

 

[AtheistForJesus]

Frankly, our only hope is for Hizbullah to get embroiled in a deadly war with Israel. One that will make the party vanish for good.
There's no peaceful way to get rid of Hizbullah.

 

[NMA]

you don't understand HA.

 

[Anti Iran]

Frankly, our only hope is for Hizbullah to get embroiled in a deadly war with Israel. One that will make the party vanish for good.
There's no peaceful way to get rid of Hizbullah.

Nope you need to overthrow the Mullah regime in Iran if you were to destroy Hezbollah completely.

Hezbollah is one head of the hydra, you slay it, many others will emerge. See 2006, Hezbollah emerged again.

The weak spot is not the head, but the heart instead. And where is the heart if not in Teheran ?

Protestations against the Mullah regime will emerge very soon in Iran. And it will be bloodier than in Lebanon and Iraq.

Russia won the war in Syria and preserved its baby child Bashar. Now Iran has become a burden for both American/Saudi/UAE and Russian interests. Iran can now be disposed of as America Russia and the Gulf are for the safety of Israel.

 

[illusion84]

HA was able to appease the shia community once more.

What's funny is that when you discuss with this community even the Hizbollahi would agree that the protestors are right in their demand.

Nassrallah grip on this community is unbelievable!

 

[Mystical Dimples]

Almost 50% of southerners did not vote in the last election, that shows you dissatisfaction from the general population.
Yes people do support Hezballa and their resistance against Israel, but Amal doesn't have anything to offer the public.
Lots of corruption, i think they are well past the point of reforms.
There needs to be a new movement (not necessarily a political party) that can still show sympathy to Hezballa temporarily, but can sideline the Chia and break them away from Nabih Berri's grip on all their social and political aspirations.

 

[illusion84]

Almost 50% of southerners did not vote in the last election, that shows you dissatisfaction from the general population.
Yes people do support Hezballa and their resistance against Israel, but Amal doesn't have anything to offer the public.
Lots of corruption, i think they are well past the point of reforms.
There needs to be a new movement (not necessarily a political party) that can still show sympathy to Hezballa temporarily, but can sideline the Chia and break them away from Nabih Berri's grip on all their social and political aspirations.

One positive thing about Amal is that in our days they are purely lebanese; they do not have any symbiotic relationship with Iran nor Syria. Which explain their corruption btw as they are dependent on the Leb state.

Another positive thing about Amal is their ideology; or lack of ideology; ma fi shi bi khawif in this party; they don't want an islamic khilafa nor wilayat fakih.

Yes they are deeply corrupted ; and Randa and her goons have a behaviour similar to Mafia then anything else.

Plus many of their supporters are known to be thugs.

 

[AtheistForJesus]

The Shia situation in one sentence: Brainwashed Hizbullah sheep, a helpless case.

 

[illusion84]

The Shia situation in one sentence: Brainwashed Hizbullah sheep, a helpless case.

Well if you watch the videos from the early days of the revolution; you would know that the real revolution happened in the south.

HA and Amal offices got attacked; Randa's hotel got burned; many pictures and signs for Amal got destroyed.

Armed thugs and even armed vehicle roamed the streets to crush the protestors.

Women got beaten; normal resident got beaten ; more than 20 units of blood were needed in Nabatieh.

With all the horrible incident that we watched in Riyad Solh and Ring ; how many were badly injured? how many entered in Coma?

The worst thing in all this is that no media dare to go cover the incident in the South. No one went to check the injured in the hospitals after Nabatieh attack.

Yes things are back to normal in south; but it is part intimidation like the threats issued against the communists in Kfar Reman and Nabatieh residents.
Part brutal prosecution as many are dragged from their homes and beaten up in Tyre and many other towns. BTW any one knows what happened to the two sisters that started the protests in Tyre at Alam square? They simply vanished!!!
And a big part hypnosis and brainwashing from Nassrallah speeches and his media machine.