The State of the Lebanese Pound [$ @ 25,000]

Mrsrx

Not an expert!
Staff member
it is okay, Mikati has the solution ready... he'll give a khitab with a gentle voice, use a misogynist analogy to stress on unity and drop few tears... that will fix it
LVV a while back told us that Ali Hassan Khalil had a plan to save lebanon. Kello under control.
 

Abou Sandal

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
I suggest we name it "The Riz2allah thread".
Heik everyday/hour/minute, we can come here and say: Riz2allah Lamma Ken El Dollar Be (x)

For example: Riz2allah Lamma Ken El Dollar Be 23 000 L.L.
See? Very easy.
 

shadow1

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
I am tipping the dollar to reach 60K LL by Feb 2022, and upward of a 100K LL come next summer. Whether that will cause any social upheaval I am not sure of the timing of that. It's best to start planning for the very worst. I already know people in Lebanon selling their house furniture to eat. Hopefully this time i wont miss my chance to buy a villa in beit Miri for under USD 40K. Migration from Lebanon will accelerate even faster. Lebanon is already one of the five poorest countries in the world by average income.

Wow the speed of the collapse came as a surprise even to me. I thought it would take Lebanon five years to reach the point it did in two.
 

Danny Z

Legendary Member
I am tipping the dollar to reach 60K LL by Feb 2022, and upward of a 100K LL come next summer. Whether that will cause any social upheaval I am not sure of the timing of that. It's best to start planning for the very worst. I already know people in Lebanon selling their house furniture to eat. Hopefully this time i wont miss my chance to buy a villa in beit Miri for under USD 40K. Migration from Lebanon will accelerate even faster. Lebanon is already one of the five poorest countries in the world by average income.

Wow the speed of the collapse came as a surprise even to me. I thought it would take Lebanon five years to reach the point it did in two.
The problem is that people still think their houses and lands are worth much more and are still pricing them at staggering prices in USD
 

Mrsrx

Not an expert!
Staff member
The problem is that people still think their houses and lands are worth much more and are still pricing them at staggering prices in USD
An economy cannot run on denial forever. At somepoint when banks clear their accounting (liabilities in terms of deposits/with debts) it will crash at the same rate as LBP unless external demand gets to offset that like shadow1 wanting to buy
 

shadow1

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
The problem is that people still think their houses and lands are worth much more and are still pricing them at staggering prices in USD
Having lived for decades on borrowed money, we consequently behaved as if we were a rich nation and people deserve that level of wages and that quality of consumption. Fixing the currency corrupted minds and economics in a horrible way.

What you say is true but there is some logic to it. Back in April the roof to my house started to crumble. An engineer inspected it and that the whole roof is unsafe and had to be torn down and rebuilt. I wanted to get a permit the honest and legal way and boy what a mistake that was. The house happens to be on an inherited land I am the majority owner of. I needed to get the signatures of cousins scattered across 4 continents. I paid a small fortune to arrange for that and when after 5 months i thought ok we are finished but someone discovered that an aunt (part owner) who died two years ago needed to sign off on the new permit. Her children who have never seen Lebanon in their lives never did a 7asr Irth so the tonzim l moudoni refused to give me an approval. I had paid them enough bribes and was exhausted. I finally gave up and decided to do it the Lebanese way and within 2 weeks we got a verbal approval from Liwa2 3outhman and three weeks later i had the old roof torn down and rebuilt. And yes the "the Honest" engineer who built the old roof used half of the materials needed and charged double the amount. What you would call Leb banda2a and intelligence.

People ask for an exorbitant amount because the syrian workers have adjusted their wages and none would work for less than 250k-300K LL a day, The prices of materials have all gone up to the same dollar value they were in Summer of 2019, And the Leb engineer with no work to do sees you as an opportunity to screw. Now why concrete which is all locally produced would go back to that price it was in USD beats me. Another example of people being so detached from reality and still live in Lala land.

At the cost of replacing just the roof I can understand if people still ask a lot of money for their apartments. No way in hell would an honest leb earning his wages in LL be able to build a house anymore.
An economy cannot run on denial forever. At somepoint when banks clear their accounting (liabilities in terms of deposits/with debts) it will crash at the same rate as LBP unless external demand gets to offset that like shadow1 wanting to buy
There is a new reality. At least a generation need to go by before anyone living overseas is willing to throw money on Lebanon. And yes the country still lives in denial. Hasn't it always though? I am not going to rush just because in Ajaltoun and Jounieh you can now find flats 50 % less than before. In Saida and Nabatieh you can find flats for 10-17k USD. You have to have a death wish to buy in those areas if you are not one of them.

The scale of the catastrophe is so immense that tens of thousands of people will be forced to sell their homes just to eat and well below replacement value. For the lebos living overseas it will be once in a century opportunity. However having been burnt so badly will they be tempted to throw good money after bad. I am not sure. So the onus is on more recent migrants to carry the torch. Older ones will bite the bullet and move on.
The next 30 years are going to be sheer hell and lots of things will change. There will be massive demographic change and whoever will end up on the winning side will celebrate victory over the rubble of a has-been country.

Essentially we are talking about a country having to be rebuilt from scratch. For the Christians it's game over no matter how much denial they choose to live in ATM. The results of the next elections will be nothing short of people signing off on the death of their country.

If some delusional person tells you the currency went from 3 LL to the dollar to 3000LL and the country survived and rebuilt, I say back then govt was not in so much debt, people's savings still existed (How many years did it take the Lebansese to save the 120B USD that has just vanished?), banks were solvent and Muslim leaders were not running the country.

Also Back then we didn't have HA. That factor alone is enough to guarantee a dark future for the country no matter what this or that politician tells you. These are liars trapped in thieves clothes. If they weren't so they wouldn't be re-elected. Whoever is stupid enough to think you can have Lebanon and HA coexisting peacefully is an absolute idiot. Who would dare invest or build a future in a country heading inevitably for self-destruction?
 

Danny Z

Legendary Member
Having lived for decades on borrowed money, we consequently behaved as if we were a rich nation and people deserve that level of wages and that quality of consumption. Fixing the currency corrupted minds and economics in a horrible way.

What you say is true but there is some logic to it. Back in April the roof to my house started to crumble. An engineer inspected it and that the whole roof is unsafe and had to be torn down and rebuilt. I wanted to get a permit the honest and legal way and boy what a mistake that was. The house happens to be on an inherited land I am the majority owner of. I needed to get the signatures of cousins scattered across 4 continents. I paid a small fortune to arrange for that and when after 5 months i thought ok we are finished but someone discovered that an aunt (part owner) who died two years ago needed to sign off on the new permit. Her children who have never seen Lebanon in their lives never did a 7asr Irth so the tonzim l moudoni refused to give me an approval. I had paid them enough bribes and was exhausted. I finally gave up and decided to do it the Lebanese way and within 2 weeks we got a verbal approval from Liwa2 3outhman and three weeks later i had the old roof torn down and rebuilt. And yes the "the Honest" engineer who built the old roof used half of the materials needed and charged double the amount. What you would call Leb banda2a and intelligence.

People ask for an exorbitant amount because the syrian workers have adjusted their wages and none would work for less than 250k-300K LL a day, The prices of materials have all gone up to the same dollar value they were in Summer of 2019, And the Leb engineer with no work to do sees you as an opportunity to screw. Now why concrete which is all locally produced would go back to that price it was in USD beats me. Another example of people being so detached from reality and still live in Lala land.

At the cost of replacing just the roof I can understand if people still ask a lot of money for their apartments. No way in hell would an honest leb earning his wages in LL be able to build a house anymore.

There is a new reality. At least a generation need to go by before anyone living overseas is willing to throw money on Lebanon. And yes the country still lives in denial. Hasn't it always though? I am not going to rush just because in Ajaltoun and Jounieh you can now find flats 50 % less than before. In Saida and Nabatieh you can find flats for 10-17k USD. You have to have a death wish to buy in those areas if you are not one of them.

The scale of the catastrophe is so immense that tens of thousands of people will be forced to sell their homes just to eat and well below replacement value. For the lebos living overseas it will be once in a century opportunity. However having been burnt so badly will they be tempted to throw good money after bad. I am not sure. So the onus is on more recent migrants to carry the torch. Older ones will bite the bullet and move on.
The next 30 years are going to be sheer hell and lots of things will change. There will be massive demographic change and whoever will end up on the winning side will celebrate victory over the rubble of a has-been country.

Essentially we are talking about a country having to be rebuilt from scratch. For the Christians it's game over no matter how much denial they choose to live in ATM. The results of the next elections will be nothing short of people signing off on the death of their country.

If some delusional person tells you the currency went from 3 LL to the dollar to 3000LL and the country survived and rebuilt, I say back then govt was not in so much debt, people's savings still existed (How many years did it take the Lebansese to save the 120B USD that has just vanished?), banks were solvent and Muslim leaders were not running the country.

Also Back then we didn't have HA. That factor alone is enough to guarantee a dark future for the country no matter what this or that politician tells you. These are liars trapped in thieves clothes. If they weren't so they wouldn't be re-elected. Whoever is stupid enough to think you can have Lebanon and HA coexisting peacefully is an absolute idiot. Who would dare invest or build a future in a country heading inevitably for self-destruction?
The country never lived in prosperity, the golden years were merely some 10 years in the sixties and that is throughout all its history not even from independence.
That does not mean it cannot be fixed, it always can be fixed in a way or another, heck, France post wwii and Germany were fixed, vietnam was fixed, many other examples of countries who were in deep shit and got a fix, but we can't get a fix without having to change allegiance, the world bank can step in and give lebanon a lifeline but there is a price for it, political allegiance to the west and something to put on the line like gas fields, telecom companies etc. That lifeline should be used to get some infrastructure and investments going and get rid of corrupt leaders so that investments and production picks up and Lebanon can start to look like a country.
I am not sure the Lebanese want to do this, they are used to bribery and want corruption.
The "me" before others, the seemingly non existing compassion among the Lebanese who are ready to sacrify anything to make money, even their basic human value will not get them out of their misery. As you said the next election will prove that they will end up voting for the same bands. It doesn't help that these bands have the election laws mafassaleh so that they get to share the country. independents cannot win in this system, they made it hard for them to win, there needs to be a big party with a lot of support to gain in the system they created and it does not seem to exist now. Also there is no indication that people will vote any different, they keep saying kellon ya3ni kellon but there is this exception to the leader of the one saying kellon ya3ni kellon
 
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Rockies

New Member

Patriot

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
New 10,000 LBP banknote

Sounds like too much trouble for a banknote that is worth less than 50 cents
why not introduce larger bills instead
perhaps 1,000,000; 5,000,000 and 10,000,000

i know @shadow1 would love to see this becoming a reality
 
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