The State of the Lebanese Pound

Danny Z

Danny Z

Legendary Member
Brace for bankruptcy, in others words they are saying that they will default if this does not happen, which is better to happen now than later.


ادت مصادر مالية وحكومية بارزة لوكالة "رويترز"، أنّ "مصرف لبنان المركزي اقترحَ على الحملة المحليين لسندات أجنبية بقيمة 1.2 مليار دولار والتي يستحق أجلها في آذار مبادلة ما بحوزتهم منها بسندات ذات أجل أطول".

وأوضحت المصادر أنّ "مثل هذه الخطوة، التي تتطلب موافقة الحكومة وسنّ قانون، من شأنها أن تعطي الدولة "مجالًا للتنفس"، مشيرة الى أن "هذا إصدار سندات جديدة ولكن بالاتفاق مع حاملي السندات التي تستحق في شهر 3 عام 2020. طبعًا تبديل السندات يحتاج إلى تفويض ويحتاج أيضًا إلى قانون. ودفع مصرف لبنان المركزي العام الماضي 2.6 مليار دولار عند استحقاق السندات بالعملة الأجنبية".
 
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  • CrusaderV

    CrusaderV

    Well-Known Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Brace for bankruptcy, in others words they are saying that they will default if this does not happen, which is better to happen now than later.


    ادت مصادر مالية وحكومية بارزة لوكالة "رويترز"، أنّ "مصرف لبنان المركزي اقترحَ على الحملة المحليين لسندات أجنبية بقيمة 1.2 مليار دولار والتي يستحق أجلها في آذار مبادلة ما بحوزتهم منها بسندات ذات أجل أطول".

    وأوضحت المصادر أنّ "مثل هذه الخطوة، التي تتطلب موافقة الحكومة وسنّ قانون، من شأنها أن تعطي الدولة "مجالًا للتنفس"، مشيرة الى أن "هذا إصدار سندات جديدة ولكن بالاتفاق مع حاملي السندات التي تستحق في شهر 3 عام 2020. طبعًا تبديل السندات يحتاج إلى تفويض ويحتاج أيضًا إلى قانون. ودفع مصرف لبنان المركزي العام الماضي 2.6 مليار دولار عند استحقاق السندات بالعملة الأجنبية".
    They will default on Lebanon debt
     
    NMA

    NMA

    Well-Known Member
    Salameh said it would cost the country "less" to keep the rate at 1500, then to officially change it to 2200 or whatever....

    Now, he has messed up obviously, but i believe the above statement
     
    dyyyy

    dyyyy

    Well-Known Member
    Salameh said it would cost the country "less" to keep the rate at 1500, then to officially change it to 2200 or whatever....

    Now, he has messed up obviously, but i believe the above statement
    I don't think it's a question of decision, we don't have enough amounts of USD and the deficit is to big to keep the rate at 1500. The math doesn't add up, unless we once again get a multimillion dollar lloan but this looks impossible now.
     
    VH Redux

    VH Redux

    Member
    I don't think it's a question of decision, we don't have enough amounts of USD and the deficit is to big to keep the rate at 1500. The math doesn't add up, unless we once again get a multimillion dollar lloan but this looks impossible now.
    mutibillion*
     
    Danny Z

    Danny Z

    Legendary Member
    Salameh said it would cost the country "less" to keep the rate at 1500, then to officially change it to 2200 or whatever....

    Now, he has messed up obviously, but i believe the above statement
    He's looking at it from the point of view of just loans, as some are in dollars the others in LBP so one would go up the other would go down and maybe he's right, I didn't do the math. However the picture is not just the loans, did anybody look at the fact that people can only get their USD at a discounted price because goods are more expensive. What about the fact that people have to sell imported good in liras while importing in foreign currency at a higher rate creating a spiraling inflation because the price dollar will keep climbing as the currency is still absent from the market as he creates less offer by reducing its official price. That will in turn make businesses close and the GDP drop meaning people will be laid off and less VAT and less income tax for the government.
     
    dyyyy

    dyyyy

    Well-Known Member
    He's looking at it from the point of view of just loans, as some are in dollars the others in LBP so one would go up the other would go down and maybe he's right, I didn't do the math. However the picture is not just the loans, did anybody look at the fact that people can only get their USD at a discounted price because goods are more expensive. What about the fact that people have to sell imported good in liras while importing in foreign currency at a higher rate creating a spiraling inflation because the price dollar will keep climbing as the currency is still absent from the market as he creates less offer by reducing its official price. That will in turn make businesses close and the GDP drop meaning people will be laid off and less VAT and less income tax for the government.
    Yepp exactly.

    What's even worse is that even our dollars in the bank do not match the actual dollar value because of the restrictions and capital control.
    If you have 10,000$ in the bank, their real value is 7000$ and it's not just a theory, you can see some people selling checks their checks for 30% less value in cash even some exchange offices do this.
     
    Danny Z

    Danny Z

    Legendary Member
    Yepp exactly.

    What's even worse is that even our dollars in the bank do not match the actual dollar value because of the restrictions and capital control.
    If you have 10,000$ in the bank, their real value is 7000$ and it's not just a theory, you can see some people selling checks their checks for 30% less value in cash even some exchange offices do this.
    yes but people's money doesn't exactly affect the cost of his loans and the burden on the government finances directly. What he's actually doing is stealing people's money to cover the shortcomings. It is legitmized robbery but that's another subject.
     
    VH Redux

    VH Redux

    Member
    is debt restructuring inevitable?

    so that means sooner or later lira will heavily devaluate and 1$ might be worth 5000 or 10 000 LL or even much more?
     
    VH Redux

    VH Redux

    Member
    mish 3ala ases they will make the serrafin fix the exchange rate at the maximum of 2000?
     
    Dr. Strangelove

    Dr. Strangelove

    Nuclear War Expert
    Orange Room Supporter
    mish 3ala ases they will make the serrafin fix the exchange rate at the maximum of 2000?
    The 2000 LBP limit is on how high they can buy the dollar from you, not on how high they can sell it.
     
    Dr. Strangelove

    Dr. Strangelove

    Nuclear War Expert
    Orange Room Supporter
    Société Générale (France) is still shareholder in SGBL
    French bank set aside provisions
    against country downgrade


    Société Générale de Banque au Liban (SGBL) said that Société Générale (France) is still one of its shareholders.

    SGBL’s statement came in response to a report by a local newspaper alleging that Société Générale (France) has exited SGBL because it considers it a troubled and mismanaged bank.

    The French bank didn’t exit its investment in SGBL but has rather set aside provisions against its stake in light of the credit downgrade of Lebanon by international rating agencies, SGBL said. This procedure is in keeping with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), it said.

    Société Générale (France) had said that its financial results for 2019 include an impairment of EUR158 million ($173 million) that corresponds to its entire 16.8 percent stake in SGBL.

    SGBL is in the process of increasing its capital by $283 million through cash contributions in US dollars. The move is in compliance with the instructions of the Central Bank requiring local banks to raise their capital by 20 percent by mid-2020. SGBL’s total assets stood at $25.8 billion at the end of 2018. The bank has branches in Jordan, the UAE, Cyprus, France, and Monaco.

     
    Nonan

    Nonan

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Société Générale (France) is still shareholder in SGBL
    French bank set aside provisions
    against country downgrade


    Société Générale de Banque au Liban (SGBL) said that Société Générale (France) is still one of its shareholders.

    SGBL’s statement came in response to a report by a local newspaper alleging that Société Générale (France) has exited SGBL because it considers it a troubled and mismanaged bank.

    The French bank didn’t exit its investment in SGBL but has rather set aside provisions against its stake in light of the credit downgrade of Lebanon by international rating agencies, SGBL said. This procedure is in keeping with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), it said.

    Société Générale (France) had said that its financial results for 2019 include an impairment of EUR158 million ($173 million) that corresponds to its entire 16.8 percent stake in SGBL.

    SGBL is in the process of increasing its capital by $283 million through cash contributions in US dollars. The move is in compliance with the instructions of the Central Bank requiring local banks to raise their capital by 20 percent by mid-2020. SGBL’s total assets stood at $25.8 billion at the end of 2018. The bank has branches in Jordan, the UAE, Cyprus, France, and Monaco.

    At the same time, SGBL is blocking the use of its Card abroad except if you bring in new $$ cash. Taro el massare
     
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