The State of the Lebanese Pound

ّTelefon Kasse

ّTelefon Kasse

Member
العملة اللبنانية في تدهّور مستمر من قبل أندلاع الثورة وتتحكم فيها الصيارفة اللصوص ومع ذلك لم تقم الدولة الطائفية بواجباتها وما وعّيوا ألا لما أنتفضت الناس المعتّرة
 
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  • Danny Z

    Danny Z

    Legendary Member
    العملة اللبنانية في تدهّور مستمر من قبل أندلاع الثورة وتتحكم فيها الصيارفة اللصوص ومع ذلك لم تقم الدولة الطائفية بواجباتها وما وعّيوا ألا لما أنتفضت الناس المعتّرة
    Market dynamics control the price... It has been the same even before the crisis, banks did not have enough USD to spare for businesses so they were tuning to other sources. basic macroeconomics of offer and demand
     
    ّTelefon Kasse

    ّTelefon Kasse

    Member
    Market dynamics control the price... It has been the same even before the crisis, banks did not have enough USD to spare for businesses so they were tuning to other sources. basic macroeconomics of offer and demand
    why the banks didn't have enough USD ?! why ?! dawleh mitel lebnen has been funded X10 more than its geographical size and needs since 1990 !!
     
    Danny Z

    Danny Z

    Legendary Member
    why the banks didn't have enough USD ?! why ?! dawleh mitel lebnen has been funded X10 more than its geographical size and needs since 1990 !!
    huh, are you really wondering why they don't have USD. Tole3 sha3er 3a lseni explaining it...why should they have enough USD, shou hinne the Fed?
    Read

     
    ّTelefon Kasse

    ّTelefon Kasse

    Member
    huh, are you really wondering why they don't have USD. Tole3 sha3er 3a lseni explaining it...why should they have enough USD, shou hinne the Fed?
    Read
    I don't like to read articles much.
    All I know !! we have missing money !! this money needs to come back to the Lebanese state cabinet from the hands of the thieves !!
    It is not a question of debt !! it is a question of an abnormal political regime that led to the economic disaster we are in. Lebanon is more expensive
    than israel itself !! even though israel has the same geographical characteristics as Lebanon and more it has a huge military budget !!
     
    Danny Z

    Danny Z

    Legendary Member

    I don't like to read articles much.​
    Eh ou3a, just go and r2os houwwara and shout kellon ya3ne kellon


    All I know !! we have missing money !!​

    How do you know that if you don't read articles, maybe you read facebook?


    this money needs to come back to the Lebanese state cabinet from the hands of the thieves !!
    they are not in their hands they are ta7t el mkhadde of course ready for you to comme and collect
    It is not a question of debt !! it is a question of an abnormal political regime that led to the economic disaster we are in. Lebanon is more expensive
    than israel itself !! even though israel has the same geographical characteristics as Lebanon and more it has a huge military budget !!
    Since the sentences don't make any sense, can you make your verses rhyme at least we can think it is shi3ir 3arabi 2adeem that is hard to undestand, and you can also keep center middle instead of center left.
     
    ّTelefon Kasse

    ّTelefon Kasse

    Member
    @Danny Z
    1 - Center-Middle for Zeu zillion times better for your eyes
    you don't realize it cause you are used to reading from Left to right

    2 - Most article writers don't have an idea how things in Lebanon are
    it is complicated for them to understand an abomination called the Lebanese political system
    therefore just like the french suggested the cosmetic government that failed
    now this article is giving its opinion which is scientific but doesn't apply to Lebanon.

    3 - In conclusion, either the article should be neglected or the political system in Lebanon need to be reformed
    and not the economy. This political league will take Lebanon to war ... even if no one protests !!
    All gulf countries refused to help Hariri because they don't trust his abilities anymore and he was unable to get back the state stolen money
    so we don't have an economic crisis in essence, it is a regime crisis
     
    I

    illusion84

    Member




    19:37

    وكالة "موديز" للتصنيف الإئتماني تخفض تصنيف لبنان من Caa1 الى Caa2 مع نظرة مستقبلية سلبية

    :(

    I got some inside info that many politicians transferred millions of USD to foreign bank accounts during the banks closure a week ago.

    However normal individuals are not allowed to transfer; withdraw or convert any of their bank account.

    3anjad bada thawra! **** this system.
     
    I

    illusion84

    Member




    19:37

    وكالة "موديز" للتصنيف الإئتماني تخفض تصنيف لبنان من Caa1 الى Caa2 مع نظرة مستقبلية سلبية

    :(

    I got some inside info that many politicians transferred millions of USD to foreign bank accounts during the banks closure a week ago.

    However normal individuals are not allowed to transfer; withdraw or convert any of their bank account.

    3anjad bada thawra! **** this system.


    So it is not just inside info after all, it is a public knowledge :mad:

    Wein el Thawra !!!
     
    Nonan

    Nonan

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter

    So it is not just inside info after all, it is a public knowledge :mad:

    Wein el Thawra !!!
    There is a simple way out of this. You create the “new Lebanese Pounds” that is worth 1,000 LBP, set the exchange rate with the USD at, let’s say 1 USD for each 5 “New Lebanese Pounds” (defacto devaluation by 230%) and you make Lebanese individuals and firms “whole” (ie compensate them for the losses) up to the equivalent of 1 billion “old” Lebanese pounds (or $660k), which should cover most upper middle class but not the millionaires
     
    Leb_Rebel

    Leb_Rebel

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Heard that capital control is now in place.

    Who here has some expertise to tell us what the next steps can be and to be expecteD?
     
    Danny Z

    Danny Z

    Legendary Member
    Heard that capital control is now in place.

    Who here has some expertise to tell us what the next steps can be and to be expecteD?
    Capital control is another word for bankruptcy. you're right there is an order to block any transfers anywhere from any account to any other account. All is blocked for now, you can only withdraw L.L.
    If you run a company, you buy stuff and you pay your suppliers within 30-60 or 90 days depending on the deals you have with them, you also get money from the clients on sales, you invest in the company, you buy equipment pay salaries etc. This all creates your cashflow. You should always keep in you accounts some money to take care of these operations once a supplier invoices you and you can't pay you're technically bankrupt, now you can sell a company car and pay him but that means you are restructuring your debt. Now what companies do before getting there they file under chapter 11 bankruptcy where the courts protects them from being sued from all creditors at once when they call come knocking knowing you have no money. So you can take time and negotiate deals with your suppliers, some get less, some get different terms etc. Now as a bank if you can't pay your creditors (your clients in this case) then you are bankrupt, and capital control means there will be no transfer of currency to the outside, or even between your own accounts in the same bank. The banks do not have hard currencies, the central bank can print only L.L. so they can give you this lira at he official rate but they can't give you dollars, even if it is your money because they don't have it, they used to pay the interest on the debt and gave it to importers against 1500LL so they can pay for imports.
    If there is no aid from the outside to elongate the ponzi scheme that has been going form the last 30 years what will happen is the following:
    The banks won't have USD to give to people, so you won't get your money if you have any, they will give you LL for 1500 and you think you can buy stuff with it but if you are importer you need US to fill your supermarket with products so you go and buy USD from secondary markets where the dollar is traded at 1800LL, in return you have to raise your prices, so you 1500LL will buy you worth of 750LL for example. In other words they cut you savings in two if you withdraw your money in L.L. So in other words inflation because your USD is pegged to the L.L. your USD also depreciated.
    The central bank can keep the dollar floating and the price will go 2000L.L as an example, but salaries are in Lebanese and imports are in USD so ma7al ma khiri shana2ou, they don't have more USD to give you but they can give you Lebanese but then the prices are in dollars pegged to 2000LL. same problem as before.
    If they get a foreign aid, the aid will be in USD, then they will have money to give you, but the aid won't come cheap, Lebanon will have to give something in return, like tjannes shi malyoun falastini, or destroy HA shi hek if it is political or if it commecial, give up some oil fields for cheap or take over your cellular network by private companies at cheap pricing. This won't change the fact that they will keep capital control until there is some tangible result from this aid, they would either want to see investment in growth so that the government won't go in the same dilemma 10 years from now, and people won't withdraw the money and leave with it to other countries. The other solution can be to apply capital control on big capitals, like they did in cyprus, one time clipping of banks accounts above a million dollar for example. When they did this in cyprus they knew that big account holders were russian and is laundering money so they did that without worrying, In Lebanon that would touch big politicians so if they are still in power, they won't propose it. So maybe in 10 years Lebanon will have to naturalize another million Syrians.
    I think in Lebanon's case the best long term solution would be Lebanon defaults and everybody becomes poor, anyway they have been living beyond their means for a long time after that maybe new investment will come and take hold in Lebanon as the Lebanese are educated and labor will be cheap. Lebanon can start competing with likes of India and China in software and manufacturing, it will take time and raise the economy and maybe Lebanon can get somewhere, but running forward is not a solution.
     
    Leb_Rebel

    Leb_Rebel

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Capital control is another word for bankruptcy. you're right there is an order to block any transfers anywhere from any account to any other account. All is blocked for now, you can only withdraw L.L.
    If you run a company, you buy stuff and you pay your suppliers within 30-60 or 90 days depending on the deals you have with them, you also get money from the clients on sales, you invest in the company, you buy equipment pay salaries etc. This all creates your cashflow. You should always keep in you accounts some money to take care of these operations once a supplier invoices you and you can't pay you're technically bankrupt, now you can sell a company car and pay him but that means you are restructuring your debt. Now what companies do before getting there they file under chapter 11 bankruptcy where the courts protects them from being sued from all creditors at once when they call come knocking knowing you have no money. So you can take time and negotiate deals with your suppliers, some get less, some get different terms etc. Now as a bank if you can't pay your creditors (your clients in this case) then you are bankrupt, and capital control means there will be no transfer of currency to the outside, or even between your own accounts in the same bank. The banks do not have hard currencies, the central bank can print only L.L. so they can give you this lira at he official rate but they can't give you dollars, even if it is your money because they don't have it, they used to pay the interest on the debt and gave it to importers against 1500LL so they can pay for imports.
    If there is no aid from the outside to elongate the ponzi scheme that has been going form the last 30 years what will happen is the following:
    The banks won't have USD to give to people, so you won't get your money if you have any, they will give you LL for 1500 and you think you can buy stuff with it but if you are importer you need US to fill your supermarket with products so you go and buy USD from secondary markets where the dollar is traded at 1800LL, in return you have to raise your prices, so you 1500LL will buy you worth of 750LL for example. In other words they cut you savings in two if you withdraw your money in L.L. So in other words inflation because your USD is pegged to the L.L. your USD also depreciated.
    The central bank can keep the dollar floating and the price will go 2000L.L as an example, but salaries are in Lebanese and imports are in USD so ma7al ma khiri shana2ou, they don't have more USD to give you but they can give you Lebanese but then the prices are in dollars pegged to 2000LL. same problem as before.
    If they get a foreign aid, the aid will be in USD, then they will have money to give you, but the aid won't come cheap, Lebanon will have to give something in return, like tjannes shi malyoun falastini, or destroy HA shi hek if it is political or if it commecial, give up some oil fields for cheap or take over your cellular network by private companies at cheap pricing. This won't change the fact that they will keep capital control until there is some tangible result from this aid, they would either want to see investment in growth so that the government won't go in the same dilemma 10 years from now, and people won't withdraw the money and leave with it to other countries. The other solution can be to apply capital control on big capitals, like they did in cyprus, one time clipping of banks accounts above a million dollar for example. When they did this in cyprus they knew that big account holders were russian and is laundering money so they did that without worrying, In Lebanon that would touch big politicians so if they are still in power, they won't propose it. So maybe in 10 years Lebanon will have to naturalize another million Syrians.
    I think in Lebanon's case the best long term solution would be Lebanon defaults and everybody becomes poor, anyway they have been living beyond their means for a long time after that maybe new investment will come and take hold in Lebanon as the Lebanese are educated and labor will be cheap. Lebanon can start competing with likes of India and China in software and manufacturing, it will take time and raise the economy and maybe Lebanon can get somewhere, but running forward is not a solution.
    Thanks. Sounds pretty complete.

    Plus the haircut you’re talking about won’t work because most big fortunes got their money - at least I assume they did because it took some time for BDL to implement this unofficial control.



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    Danny Z

    Danny Z

    Legendary Member
    Thanks. Sounds pretty complete.

    Plus the haircut you’re talking about won’t work because most big fortunes got their money - at least I assume they did because it took some time for BDL to implement this unofficial control.



    Sent from my iPhone using Orange Room
     
    V

    Viral

    Member
    Capital control is another word for bankruptcy. you're right there is an order to block any transfers anywhere from any account to any other account. All is blocked for now, you can only withdraw L.L.
    If you run a company, you buy stuff and you pay your suppliers within 30-60 or 90 days depending on the deals you have with them, you also get money from the clients on sales, you invest in the company, you buy equipment pay salaries etc. This all creates your cashflow. You should always keep in you accounts some money to take care of these operations once a supplier invoices you and you can't pay you're technically bankrupt, now you can sell a company car and pay him but that means you are restructuring your debt. Now what companies do before getting there they file under chapter 11 bankruptcy where the courts protects them from being sued from all creditors at once when they call come knocking knowing you have no money. So you can take time and negotiate deals with your suppliers, some get less, some get different terms etc. Now as a bank if you can't pay your creditors (your clients in this case) then you are bankrupt, and capital control means there will be no transfer of currency to the outside, or even between your own accounts in the same bank. The banks do not have hard currencies, the central bank can print only L.L. so they can give you this lira at he official rate but they can't give you dollars, even if it is your money because they don't have it, they used to pay the interest on the debt and gave it to importers against 1500LL so they can pay for imports.
    If there is no aid from the outside to elongate the ponzi scheme that has been going form the last 30 years what will happen is the following:
    The banks won't have USD to give to people, so you won't get your money if you have any, they will give you LL for 1500 and you think you can buy stuff with it but if you are importer you need US to fill your supermarket with products so you go and buy USD from secondary markets where the dollar is traded at 1800LL, in return you have to raise your prices, so you 1500LL will buy you worth of 750LL for example. In other words they cut you savings in two if you withdraw your money in L.L. So in other words inflation because your USD is pegged to the L.L. your USD also depreciated.
    The central bank can keep the dollar floating and the price will go 2000L.L as an example, but salaries are in Lebanese and imports are in USD so ma7al ma khiri shana2ou, they don't have more USD to give you but they can give you Lebanese but then the prices are in dollars pegged to 2000LL. same problem as before.
    If they get a foreign aid, the aid will be in USD, then they will have money to give you, but the aid won't come cheap, Lebanon will have to give something in return, like tjannes shi malyoun falastini, or destroy HA shi hek if it is political or if it commecial, give up some oil fields for cheap or take over your cellular network by private companies at cheap pricing. This won't change the fact that they will keep capital control until there is some tangible result from this aid, they would either want to see investment in growth so that the government won't go in the same dilemma 10 years from now, and people won't withdraw the money and leave with it to other countries. The other solution can be to apply capital control on big capitals, like they did in cyprus, one time clipping of banks accounts above a million dollar for example. When they did this in cyprus they knew that big account holders were russian and is laundering money so they did that without worrying, In Lebanon that would touch big politicians so if they are still in power, they won't propose it. So maybe in 10 years Lebanon will have to naturalize another million Syrians.
    I think in Lebanon's case the best long term solution would be Lebanon defaults and everybody becomes poor, anyway they have been living beyond their means for a long time after that maybe new investment will come and take hold in Lebanon as the Lebanese are educated and labor will be cheap. Lebanon can start competing with likes of India and China in software and manufacturing, it will take time and raise the economy and maybe Lebanon can get somewhere, but running forward is not a solution.
    This is very accurate. It's a indirect economic sanctions by the US for Bassil and GMA telling Pompeo we cannot turn against one third of our population and we need for the Syrians to go back home without a political deal.
    Notice how all the $hit hit the fan shorty after Bassil returned from the Arab League after advocating the re-acceptance of Syria and declaring he wants to go to Syria and negotiate the return of the Syrians back home.
    Isn't ironic how the Lebanese are killing their savior. And only their savior...
     
    Danny Z

    Danny Z

    Legendary Member
    This is very accurate. It's a indirect economic sanctions by the US for Bassil and GMA telling Pompeo we cannot turn against one third of our population and we need for the Syrians to go back home without a political deal.
    Notice how all the $hit hit the fan shorty after Bassil returned from the Arab League after advocating the re-acceptance of Syria and declaring he wants to go to Syria and negotiate the return of the Syrians back home.
    Isn't ironic how the Lebanese are killing their savior. And only their savior...
    Nothing happens by chance in Lebanon. Especially revolutions. When was the last time you saw a revolution without a regional or superpower backing it or squashing it? Maybe the French Revolution?
     
    Leb_Rebel

    Leb_Rebel

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Nothing happens by chance in Lebanon. Especially revolutions. When was the last time you saw a revolution without a regional or superpower backing it or squashing it? Maybe the French Revolution?
    Youssef beik Karam


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