UN/US Brokered Negotiations Between Lebanon and Israel to Demarcate Maritime Borders

JB81

Legendary Member
I am not saying this article proves anything, what I am saying is that people are very suspicious.
the way the subject is handled does not provide confidence.
For me, the guy is trying to cut the army so that Joseph Aoun does not take any credit and his chances to the presidency increase.
Same did Franjieh, but he (smartly) throw it at Aoun.
After Aoun and his minions publicly backed the decree to capitalize on it and win political points thinking Franjieh (pushed by Berri) will not sign it, in the end, he was forced to show his true face.
It does not need much to figure it out.
They will not negotiate on those 1400KM2, and they are lost, which makes it HIGH TREASON

صرت مثل ليلى عبد اللطيف إنت

بعد ناقصك تحليلات الخنفشارية تيع الرئيس بين الجين والجين
 

JustLeb

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
صرت مثل ليلى عبد اللطيف إنت

بعد ناقصك تحليلات الخنفشارية تيع الرئيس بين الجين والجين

#ركبوا_بيضات
#بري_معلمكن
#سعركم_كرسي
 

My Moria Moon

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
Aoun should know better. Always assume worst case scenario and build on it.
So what is worst case scenario? Government not convening before a certain deadline -> not signing / not sending the decree to the UN must be worst case scenario. In that case, just sign for fuks sake.
Aoun not signing the marsoum and losing it all will reveal Aoun as a super bluff. I'm calling his bet.
 

JustLeb

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter

الجيش «يكتشف» خطاً جديداً للحدود الجنوبية: فلنتراجع إلى الشمال قليلاً |​



بيسووا صرماية كلن سوا
من بعد دايفد هيل اجاهم امر بالانسحاب
تفه عليهم كلهم
 

Walidos

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter

الجيش «يكتشف» خطاً جديداً للحدود الجنوبية: فلنتراجع إلى الشمال قليلاً |​



بيسووا صرماية كلن سوا
من بعد دايفد هيل اجاهم امر بالانسحاب
تفه عليهم كلهم
I wouldn’t believe the article at face value... yellow journalism is the modus operandi, wou ma 7ada ma3o khabar shi
 

Isabella

The queen of "Bazella"
Orange Room Supporter

الجيش «يكتشف» خطاً جديداً للحدود الجنوبية: فلنتراجع إلى الشمال قليلاً |​



بيسووا صرماية كلن سوا
من بعد دايفد هيل اجاهم امر بالانسحاب
تفه عليهم كلهم

Completely ridiculous! How do they expect their negotiations to hold any weight when they "keep discovering lines" and change their position on what our southern maritime border actually is?? As if we're dealing with kindergarten children not israel and the united states! What a f*cking joke!
 

JustLeb

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
أصدرت قيادة الجيش – مديرية التوجيه بياناً، قالت فيه: "أوردت إحدى الصحف المحلية خبراً مفاده أن الجيش أدخل تعديلاً جديداً على مقترحه المتعلق بالمفاوضات التقنية غير المباشرة لترسيم الحدود البحرية، من خلال إضافة خط حدودي جديد سُمي "خط قانا".

وأضاف البيان، يهم قيادة الجيش أن "تنفي صحة هذا الخبر جملةً وتفصيلاً، وتؤكد أن الوفد المفاوض مستمر في أداء مهمته في المفاوضات التقنية غير المباشرة بالتنسيق الكامل مع السلطات الرسمية ذات الصلة على أساس الدراسة المُعدّة في قيادة الجيش والتي طرحت خلال جلسات التفاوض وفقا للقانون الدولي، والقائمة على أسس علمية وقانونية ومثبتة وفقا للأدلة والدراسات المعدّة لدى مصلحة الهيدروغرافيا في قيادة الجيش".

ودعت قيادة الجيش وسائل الإعلام إلى توخي الدقة في نقل الأخبار المتعلقة بالمؤسسة العسكرية والعودة إليها للتثبت من المعلومات قبل نشرها.
 

Isabella

The queen of "Bazella"
Orange Room Supporter
أصدرت قيادة الجيش – مديرية التوجيه بياناً، قالت فيه: "أوردت إحدى الصحف المحلية خبراً مفاده أن الجيش أدخل تعديلاً جديداً على مقترحه المتعلق بالمفاوضات التقنية غير المباشرة لترسيم الحدود البحرية، من خلال إضافة خط حدودي جديد سُمي "خط قانا".

وأضاف البيان، يهم قيادة الجيش أن "تنفي صحة هذا الخبر جملةً وتفصيلاً، وتؤكد أن الوفد المفاوض مستمر في أداء مهمته في المفاوضات التقنية غير المباشرة بالتنسيق الكامل مع السلطات الرسمية ذات الصلة على أساس الدراسة المُعدّة في قيادة الجيش والتي طرحت خلال جلسات التفاوض وفقا للقانون الدولي، والقائمة على أسس علمية وقانونية ومثبتة وفقا للأدلة والدراسات المعدّة لدى مصلحة الهيدروغرافيا في قيادة الجيش".

ودعت قيادة الجيش وسائل الإعلام إلى توخي الدقة في نقل الأخبار المتعلقة بالمؤسسة العسكرية والعودة إليها للتثبت من المعلومات قبل نشرها.

So alakhbar just pulled that line out of their asses and called it the qana line?? Even more ridiculous man
 

JustLeb

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
So alakhbar just pulled that line out of their asses and called it the qana line?? Even more ridiculous man
Honestly, I don't know anymore who is telling the truth and who is not.
Meanwhile, I hope you have applied and gotten french citizenship because Lebanon is governed by a bunch of mobsters, it is NO MORE a country
 

lebnan_lilkel

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
I don't understand why academics are not in charge of the border lines. Inno the LA are now experts in historical boundaries ?? . It is not their fortey is it ?? . There should be a government department director general. What a joke of a country.. lool.
They discovered a new map that was written on the back of an ancient cigarette pack..maybe camel..
Or did they ask neswan in the nearest bakery ?. That s where we get our latest news..
 

Nonan

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
Yes there is a lot of mistrust, and I think this has been used as a strategy against GMA.
To be honest, his behavior and that of FPM fueled a lot of this mistrust. The flip flopping on the decree is a perfect example. The behavior of Kan3an (and the fact he is still part of FPM) is another example... And those are examples based on indisputable facts, not rumours or theories
 

Jeremy Samuel

New Member
Now Israel is extending its maritime border claim northward.

Israel doesn't take the new northern boundary seriously, but is only staking the claim to mirror what Lebanon is doing.

“This wasn't our original intention, but the moment Lebanon moved forward with submitting their line, we prepared to submit ours - which, in symmetry with theirs, encroaches on hundreds of kilometers of Lebanon's economic waters,” a ministry source explained on Monday .

Israel's new line is based on the maritime borders between Cyprus and Lebanon.

“It doesn't promote a solution, but it creates symmetry,” the source said.

I'm very disappointed.

 

Isabella

The queen of "Bazella"
Orange Room Supporter
Now Israel is extending its maritime border claim northward.

Israel doesn't take the new northern boundary seriously, but is only staking the claim to mirror what Lebanon is doing.



I'm very disappointed.


The red line is ridiculous!
 

CitizenOfTheRepublic

Legendary Member
Now Israel is extending its maritime border claim northward.

Israel doesn't take the new northern boundary seriously, but is only staking the claim to mirror what Lebanon is doing.



I'm very disappointed.


In normal negotiations typically each party starts at the maximum reasonable position it can afford.
Lebanon's claim is reasonable backed by numerous precedents and several international laws.
Israel based its claim "on symmetry" and "on the maritime borders between Cyprus and Lebanon.", a border Lebanon itself has set as tentative pending a final agreement. This is not by any measure a reasonable claim backed by international law or any supporting precedents. This tells us that Israel just shifted its negotiation tactic to one of irrational misbehavior. This is nothing novel as it is a well known approach with numerous clear and established ways to counter.
Make no mistake, Israel is a very shrewd negotiator and they do everything in a calculated way. One thing they might be banking on is that Lebanon behaves very stupidly which will provide them gains. If Lebanon behaves intelligently, then another thing they could be seeking is to waste time hoping this will change the circumstances to their advantage, like say a friendlier peer willing to concede much more.
 

TayyarBeino

Legendary Member
2h


الغريب انو يلي عم يحاول يشكك بموقف جبران باسيل من الترسيم كان محدد خط هو نفسو يلي حدّدو العدو، بينما باسيل أقله عم يطالب بمساحات اضافية للبنان وكلامو اليوم عن العداء لإسرائيل واضح! الحملة عجبران، وأصحابها، بيخدمو العدو وبيصبّو بسرقة الأرض اللبنانية! رمادي ما في، يا جبران يا أسود!
+++
 

Jeremy Samuel

New Member
In normal negotiations typically each party starts at the maximum reasonable position it can afford.
Lebanon's claim is reasonable backed by numerous precedents and several international laws.
Israel based its claim "on symmetry" and "on the maritime borders between Cyprus and Lebanon.", A border Lebanon itself has set as tentative pending a final agreement. This is not by any measure a reasonable claim backed by international law or any supporting precedents. This tells us that Israel just shifted its negotiation tactic to one of irrational misbehavior. This is nothing novel as it is a well known approach with numerous clear and established ways to counter.
Make no mistake, Israel is a very shrewd negotiator and they do everything in a calculated way. One thing they might be banking on is that Lebanon behaves very stupidly which will provide them gains. If Lebanon behaves intelligently, then another thing they could be seeking is to waste time hoping this will change the circumstances to their advantage, like say a friendlier peer willing to concede much more.

I'm going to admit that I don't have the technical knowledge of the Lebanon-Israel border dynamics to comment in a really informed way here, but I've read in several places that prior to the most recent expansion of maritime claims, Israel had agreed that there would be a 55%: 45% split in Lebanon's favor (link below) and then a 58%:42%, but the disputed territory isn't large.

For all we know, the seabed might contain nothing but rock, or there could be a hydrocarbon reserve that spans even Lebanon's maximum border and under which joint-extraction might be necessary.

I think what is really happening in Lebanon is that several Lebanese parties, chiefly Hezbollah, don't want any kind of agreement with Israel period. A 58%:42% split of the original disputed territory is something Lebanon ought to be proud of and profit from (if there's any gas), but I think Lebanon's controlling powers don't want any deal period.


 

Jeremy Samuel

New Member
I'm going to admit that I don't have the technical knowledge of the Lebanon-Israel border dynamics to comment in a really informed way here, but I've read in several places that prior to the most recent expansion of maritime claims, Israel had agreed that there would be a 55%: 45% split in Lebanon's favor (link below) and then a 58%: 42%, but the disputed territory isn't large.

For all we know, the seabed might contain nothing but rock, or there could be a hydrocarbon reserve that spans even Lebanon's maximum border and under which joint-extraction might be necessary.

I think what is really happening in Lebanon is that several Lebanese parties, chiefly Hezbollah, don't want any kind of agreement with Israel period. A 58%: 42% split of the original disputed territory is something Lebanon ought to be proud of and profit from (if there's any gas), but I think Lebanon's controlling powers don't want any deal period.

[URL unfurl = "true"] https://www.inss.org.il/publication/negotiations-israel-lebanon-maritime-border/ [/ URL]

[URL unfurl = "true"] U.S. Officials to Mediate Israel-Lebanon Maritime Border Talks [/ URL]

To emphasize, this is the verification that Israel will accept a 58%: 42 division:

Israeli energy minister Yuval Steinitz was already authorized to signal Lebanon that his government is prepared to split the 860 square kilometers of contested maritime territory in a 58:42 ratio in Beirut's favor. The Lebanese are eager for the French company Total to start drilling in Block 9 adjacent to the contested area, while Israel is preparing international tenders for drilling at the “Alon D” block.


https://www.washingtoninstitute.org...imports/f53a590d3279b1a0ca8d1586c25b877a.jpeg
 

CitizenOfTheRepublic

Legendary Member
I'm going to admit that I don't have the technical knowledge of the Lebanon-Israel border dynamics to comment in a really informed way here, but I've read in several places that prior to the most recent expansion of maritime claims, Israel had agreed that there would be a 55%: 45% split in Lebanon's favor (link below) and then a 58%:42%, but the disputed territory isn't large.

For all we know, the seabed might contain nothing but rock, or there could be a hydrocarbon reserve that spans even Lebanon's maximum border and under which joint-extraction might be necessary.

I think what is really happening in Lebanon is that several Lebanese parties, chiefly Hezbollah, don't want any kind of agreement with Israel period. A 58%:42% split of the original disputed territory is something Lebanon ought to be proud of and profit from (if there's any gas), but I think Lebanon's controlling powers don't want any deal period.


From a pure technical standpoint of running negotiations, the most recent position of Lebanon is the correct one: you start from the reasonable point that is most advantageous to you. These splits of 55%-45% and 58%-42% are beyond nonsensical because they seem to provide an "edge" to Lebanon while they do the exact opposite as the Lebanese starting point they rely on already relinquishes a lot with nothing in return.

Halla2 you want to speculate why and who and what and when and how, that's up to you. I have nothing to provide on the ma wara2iyyet.
 

lebnan_lilkel

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
للمرسوم 6433
This opportunity expires soon. Nice move. The israelis negotiation team send their junior staff to talk to the Lebanese. They have no time for crap.

This a classic example of sheep believing their own lies.
 
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