Any reasonable explanation why Aoun hasn't sign the document yet and why it hasn't been sent to the UN? Anything from Aoun himself or his office on the issue?
UN/US Brokered Negotiations Between Lebanon and Israel to Demarcate Maritime Borders
- Thread starter SeaAb
- Start date
CitizenOfTheRepublic
Legendary Member
In a negotiation sometimes the threat of a new position can be sufficient to gain concessions. All what you see here is cerebral masturbation to score a few useless points against whichever party, FPM or others.
The incontrovertible crime is point number 23.
Please masturbate with me and answer me this:
Tomorrow morning Israel starts drilling between line 23 and line 29
at the same time Israel postpones the negotiations indefinitely
how are you planning to force them to stop the drilling and under what claim ?
on face value, he said he will make sure lebanon gets its right
but if you read between the lines, you discover that something is going behind the scenes.
informing the UN of border changes, strengthen lebanon legal position, and make international companies unwilling to drill in the disputed area
The lame justification that aoun made about cabinet approval while he signed hundreds of decrees, in the same way, tells you that he is preparing something.
the mingling of Bassil in this file (that the army is handling), couldn't be more suspicious, simply out of the blue he started to weigh in and propose new plans, modifications of the negotiation team, all of that suggests that they have sold something to the Americans and now they are preparing a scenario, a story to make the Lebanese swallow their deal
a 'stab in our back' he said.
the lebanese general who's heading the negotiations said
never forget this.
unfortunately nobody has balls in this republic
not in parliament
not in the army
nobody
CitizenOfTheRepublic
Legendary Member
No thanks...
I'll entertain your not so serious question with a serious answer, let's see if you are capable of following through.
Negotiation is not a game where you show all your cards in the beginning even if you have a huge winning hand. It's a step by step play similar to leekha or tarneeb where you and your opponents move and respond to each other. The key is to play a card at the right time.
Right now with the given current conditions the position is sound. If anything Israel threatens to leave the negotiations if line 29 is sent to the UN. That tells me Israel wants a resolution not a UN deadlock. Now, if Israel's position changes and moves in the direction you are describing then the Lebanese position should change and at that moment the cost of signing the decree with the risk of it being nullified is justified.
For the nth time, Aoun will not sign the decree, he didn't want to sign it from the start, and Bassil didn't want aoun to sign it.
Tony Haddad said that even before the negotiation started.
it has been so clear and so obvious and still some want to hide behind their thumb
listen for about 10 min
CitizenOfTheRepublic
Legendary Member
I am talking in absolute terms here about negotiation positions. Line 29 is a bargaining chip to me that you use to gain concession, it is wildly unreasonable to think you can get it.
Lal sara7a, mesh fer2a ma3eh Aoun or Bassil being right or wrong.
"Now, if Israel's position changes and moves in the direction you are describing then the Lebanese position should change and at that moment the cost of signing the decree with the risk of it being nullified is justified.
"
Great
We'll come back to this in 2 weeks once the israelis start drilling.
let's see what your excuse will be then
risk of being nullified 2al
I couldn't care less about aoun and bassil as long as we don't lose our resources.
I would like to give them the benefit of the doubt and think they are master negotiators, but everything they do seems suspicious to me.
Anyway as I said, if they succeed I will congratulate them and admit that I was unfair to them, but honestly I don't know how might this happen...
On the other hand, I will be deeply frustrated if we lose our right to negotiate around line 29 due to aoun not signing the decree and informing the UN.
PS. at the very least, knowing bassil pathological jealousy (which was apparent in the press conf with Hungary FM), he might not want to give give credit to joesph aoun... it is possible that he is so sick that he put the national interest in jeopardy to cut the road of baabda to joseph aoun
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CitizenOfTheRepublic
Legendary Member
We're not too far apart you and I on here. For me, I just look at what we know and see how it evolves. The fact that line 29 is part of the conversation is a good thing, this means it's being used in the negotiations as a chip. Moving line 29 to the UN is an escalation. Do we need it? Depends on how Israel behaves. If they escalate then it's one of the options. The advisable course is usually a response of equal magnitude, not less or more, so it will depend.
Anyway, let's see where this ends. Hof line is failure but if we secure the entirety of the potential field on our end then I think it's mission accomplished. I don't think we have enough leverage to get part of Arish? but if we get some of that then it's a resounding success.
CitizenOfTheRepublic
Legendary Member
So much for a serious conversation, enjoying your lonely activity, want no part of it.
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Why do you think Aoun and Bassil are not signing?
Does your fundamentalistic Bassil hate and mistrust derive only from the internal election coup? Or are there other even more valid reasons?
Showing your right is not an escalation, it is what it is.. your right....
The Israelis will not accept it, this is something we can all agree on, they never accepted any international laws
what we aim from this decree is 2 things:
1- make our claim official/legal in the eyes of the international community
2- send a message to international drilling companies that this is a disputed area and they can't start working there. And they won't work there due to risk on material and staff...
Thank you for the spoon feeding, but you seem to have failed to spoon feed me the answer to the actual question I asked you. What is the official source from which you derive the conclusion that the negotiating team cannot negotiate on the basis of line 29 because it has not submitted it to the UN. I'm looking for a citation. Thank you.
On the second post, can you explain how, specifically, if Lebanon submits Line 29 to the UN tomorrow and Israel starts drilling on the basis of like 23, what exact mechanisms and steps are you (you're Lebanon in this scenario) going to take to stop them? Thanks again.
In the past few months of trying to follow the developments (read: noise) on this topic across all platforms and media, these might be the first assessments that I've read that are grounded in anything approaching reality and reasonableness.
if your wife cheats on you, is it a valid enough reason not to trust her, or you need more... ???
Nevertheless, there are plenty of reasons not to believe anything he says, just look at the situation in Lebanon after 4 years of their pitiful presidency.
the guy sold us dreams and promises for decades, but when the time came to put into practice a simple but meaningful process which is democracy he failed big time.
If you remember what I said then, there will be no more elections in FPM and Bassil will be president for life.
Last time the a$$h*le said el tazkieh is a form of democracy... like Basho elections
Add to that most of what he did, or let's say his biggest projects are a total failure.
How can you trust someone like that !!
Anyway, this is my opinion that everyone knows by now and I was not wrong in my prediction.
I said many times that when his personal interest clashes with the public one he will choose his own.
Just on the form, didn't you hear him saying "if europe put sanctions on him, LEBANON will go east" !!!
He put his person as a national interest... and he didn't shy away from saying it
this is only on the form, let alone the real stuff that is going behind the scene.
Didn't you hear the news that the American mediator told the Lebanese team that only the lines submitted to the UN are subject to negotiation?!
ya albeh
by 'cannot' i didn't mean 'they're not allowed to'
they can claim palestine as a whole during the negotiations if they wish however on what basis ?
Lebanon's official position as noted with the UN is that line 23 is our border and if the israelis put the negotiations to a halt anything beyond line 23 is not considered a disputed area meaning our negotiators are severely weakened meaning they 'cannot' practically perform their negotiations from their current weak position 3awn the tyrant put them in.
- concerning your second question
the moment Lebanon declares its claim for line 29 anything between line 1 and line 29 will be considered as a disputed area and Lebanon can easily sue (and win) any company that dares drilling in that area which is not the case at the moment
thanks to the tyrant 3awn.