Unprecedented development: Syria downs Israeli F16

Aoune32!

Active Member
Chagai Tzuriel, the director general of the Israeli Ministry of Intelligence, said Russia now faces a “huge dilemma”.

“Assad knows that Russia has advanced anti-aircraft capacities in Syria that it hasn’t deployed to protect him,” he told the Times. “And Israel knows that Russia hermetically controls Syrian airspace, and yet it did not inform Israel about the drone. Russia is going to have to decide which side they are on — and they don’t want to be seen as being on either side.”

Worrying new conflict in Syria
 
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  • gramsci

    Legendary Member
    Chagai Tzuriel, the director general of the Israeli Ministry of Intelligence, said Russia now faces a “huge dilemma”.

    “Assad knows that Russia has advanced anti-aircraft capacities in Syria that it hasn’t deployed to protect him,” he told the Times. “And Israel knows that Russia hermetically controls Syrian airspace, and yet it did not inform Israel about the drone. Russia is going to have to decide which side they are on — and they don’t want to be seen as being on either side.”

    Worrying new conflict in Syria
    as a matter of fact this is the israeli dilemma and not the russian one :D...
     

    Aoune32!

    Active Member
    as a matter of fact this is the israeli dilemma and not the russian one :D...
    I think so too. It looks like to me that Israel will hit but this time in Syria not in Lebanon. Russia will stand idle and not do much as it not really targetting Assad but the Iranian bases and arms in Syria. Russia eventhough they are Iranian allies will benefit if Israel hit them as Israel/Russia both will benefit from a weaker Iran in Syria.
     

    gramsci

    Legendary Member
    I think so too. It looks like to me that Israel will hit but this time in Syria not in Lebanon. Russia will stand idle and not do much as it not really targetting Assad but the Iranian bases and arms in Syria. Russia eventhough they are Iranian allies will benefit if Israel hit them as Israel/Russia both will benefit from a weaker Iran in Syria.
    not properly.. israel is not able to hit ..
    i think netanyahu days are numbered and there will be a political crisis in israel.
     

    Aoune32!

    Active Member
    not properly.. israel is not able to hit ..
    i think netanyahu days are numbered and there will be a political crisis in israel.
    Numbered?
    Israeli people unite in the event of crisis unlike the Jarabs who are divided. The regime only holds 55% of Syria and no one knows when this can be tilted.
     

    Aoune32!

    Active Member
    i agree with that..but i think 1 million of syrian those who escaped to germany will return civilised to syria ..thanks to merkel
    It is not only about the refugees. The North of Syria is controlled by US backed Kurdish rebels which Turkey is against. The Turks are attacking them and Assad is helping them out as he doesn't Turkish interference in the country. Iran and Russia have meeting with Turkey about Syria and Assad is not included. There are still rebels scatthered on all parts of Syria. 7 years war took out at least 500K people if not more, injured thousands, millions of refugees, the economy is in tatters. It seriously is a devastation. It doesn't look like its over yet...
     

    gramsci

    Legendary Member
    It is not only about the refugees. The North of Syria is controlled by US backed Kurdish rebels which Turkey is against. The Turks are attacking them and Assad is helping them out as he doesn't Turkish interference in the country. Iran and Russia have meeting with Turkey about Syria and Assad is not included. There are still rebels scatthered on all parts of Syria. 7 years war took out at least 500K people if not more, injured thousands, millions of refugees, the economy is in tatters. It seriously is a devastation. It doesn't look like its over yet...
    American lost the control of the situation..theit political action have no iniziative but only parassite and obstacle for russian plan..turkey is doing a war that can't win..the good outcome that kurd are closer to assad now..seems their honeymoon with the yankee is over :D ..saudi and jarabs are clappers..
     

    Aoune32!

    Active Member
    American lost the control of the situation..theit political action have no iniziative but only parassite and obstacle for russian plan..turkey is doing a war that can't win..the good outcome that kurd are closer to assad now..seems their honeymoon with the yankee is over :D ..saudi and jarabs are clappers..
    The US was never in charge of the situation aslan.
    They never went all out. They were backing a few elements here and there. The biggest loser is the Syrian country as a whole and what ever left of their people. The Kurds have always wanted their own state. It is far from over friend and no one's really knows what is going to happen. I hope that there are little states carved out and Lebanon can follow. With such regimes we simply cannot survive + these regimes have no plan for the future. All they want you to believe is your life is good wasted either supporting the regime or to attack Israel. Some prefer not to die and actually live. Life is worth alot eventhough some people do not think so and others their religious beliefs is to die a martyr.
     

    HannaTheCrusader

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Chagai Tzuriel, the director general of the Israeli Ministry of Intelligence, said Russia now faces a “huge dilemma”.

    “Assad knows that Russia has advanced anti-aircraft capacities in Syria that it hasn’t deployed to protect him,” he told the Times. “And Israel knows that Russia hermetically controls Syrian airspace, and yet it did not inform Israel about the drone. Russia is going to have to decide which side they are on — and they don’t want to be seen as being on either side.”

    Worrying new conflict in Syria
    russia is doing what russia best interets

    haartez as much as said that

    that russia is the new boss in the region
     

    JustLeb

    Legendary Member
    can anyone tell me how many missiles they lunched to hit this F16?
    According to one account they launched 25 missiles. But it was unclear if it was to only one plane or all the planes.
    Anyway they are old version missiles but it does not matter as long as they were able to knock it of the sky.
    This will give them more ideas, more experience in how to deal with such threat.
    Of course the only problem is the number of missiles they have in the stock.
    But the important in this issue is that they now know how to shoot planes, sophisticated ones, and will make Israelis much more nervous in the future because losing another one will mean the end of their dominance to the sky
     
    Downing of fighter jet damages Israel’s strategic position

    Israel has been bombing targets within Syria with impunity since the country descended into a hellish civil war in 2011. The Israeli Air Force (IAF) has executed bombing runs throughout the region, even as far away as Sudan without suffering consequences for decades. It has taken its aerial superiority for granted and built its strategy on it. That made the events of Saturday, Feb. 10, 2018, all the more shocking for Israel.

    An Iranian drone entered Israeli aerospace and was destroyed. Israel attacked the site from which the drone was launched. An Israeli F-16 fighter was shot down by anti-air missiles. The pilot and navigator parachuted (both survived but were injured) and Israel responded with its usual lack of subtlety, bombing targets in Syria and possibly killing Iranian soldiers.

    Pro-Iranian militia Hezbollah hailed the downing of the aircraft as the beginning of “a new strategic phase” that puts an end to the violation of Syrian territories. Hezbollah is known for hyperbolic rhetoric, but this time they may have a point. The last time an Israeli fighter was shot down during an operation was in Lebanon in 1983, when the Middle East was a completely different place.

    This latest incident may be a harbinger of a new strategic era in the Levant. The F-16 was probably shot down by a Russian made SA-5 Gammon medium-to-high altitude surface-to-air missile. Syria uses the missiles to cover an area in which Russian troops operate in support of the Assad regime.

    In the past, the IAF had bombed the same area in order to interdict the supply of advanced arms and munitions to the Hezbollah militia, a hardened enemy of Israel against which it has fought several military campaigns in the past. In this iteration of attacks, the target was more sensitive. The office of the Israeli military spokesman released photographs of what it claims is a Syrian air-base in the Homs governate near the village of Tiyas utilized by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards to transfer arms to Hezbollah.

    With one or two exceptions, Israel had generally managed to avoid direct clashes with Iran and the loss of aircraft through a deft and complex strategy, involving three planks.

    First, (though it officially denies this) it provided logistical support to rebel groups near the Israeli border in order to facilitate their ability to hold off Hezbollah and Iranian encroachment. Second, it developed a strategic understanding with Russia to obtain its cooperation in reigning in Iranian influence in the western part of Syria. Finally, when all else failed used its air-force to send a clear message that it would not tolerate the expansion of Iranian influence in proximity to Israel’s borders.

    This generally successful strategy has since collapsed. As the position of anti-government rebels in Syria deteriorated, the US and Russia reached an agreement in November (without direct Israeli involvement) on limiting non-Syrian forces in the country. While ostensibly limiting Iranian influence near the Israeli border, it actually gave carte blanche to Iranian influence up to 20 km from the Israeli border and did not provide any clear mechanism for preventing Hezbollah or the Iranian Revolutionary Guard for coming closer. It was yet another case of Putin outsmarting the Trump Administration (or worse).

    Israeli officials continue to pretend that matters in Syria are under control, as the military referred to the operation as a “complete operational success.” However, they are either kidding the public or themselves.

    Since the base Israel attacked is outside of the zone covered in the agreement, it is no surprise that Syria and Russia acted more aggressively to frustrate Israeli freedom of action. Putin is reported to have warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to avoid taking any steps that would further escalate the conflict.

    The Russian Foreign Ministry chastised Israel, warning that it is “absolutely unacceptable to create threats to the lives and security of Russian servicemen.” The Russian Federation has no interest in an Israeli-Iranian confrontation, but in practice, they are providing a military and diplomatic umbrella for the deepening of Iranian influence in Syria.

    For students of Israeli military history, these developments echo some of the darkest moments in its strategic past. In 1967 Israel won a historic military victory over the Arab states facilitated by complete air superiority.

    The Soviet Union at that time supported Egypt and to avoid a recurrence, provided its ally with advanced anti-aircraft missiles, alongside crews to operate them. The missile sites covered the devastating Egyptian invasion of Sinai in 1973 and neutralized the advantage of the IAF. In the war, Israel lost 102 out of 383 operational aircraft and was forced to rely on an emergency US resupply to keep its air-force operational. It struggled to win the war and its strategic standing plummeted as a result.

    If and when an open conflict between Iran and Israel commences, it would appear that the main Israeli advantage has been dulled. The war will likely involve Hezbollah firing barrages of missiles at Israeli population centers, daring the Israeli military to neutralize fire by sending ground forces into entrenched and booby-trapped positions primarily located underground.

    Israel has significant anti-missile capabilities, but they are likely to be overwhelmed by Hezbollah’s reported reserve of over 100,000 missiles. If forced to counter Hezbollah and the Revolutionary Guard by sending troops into enemy territory with limited ground support, the results could be gruesome for Israel which has become a society averse to casualties and vulnerable to the kidnapping of soldiers.

    The results would probably be even more gruesome for civilians in Lebanon and Syria who will be on the receiving end of the inevitable escalation of Israeli of military force. Like most people and actors, Israel is always most destructive when it feels insecure. It could also see Russia and the US dragged into a regional conflict contrary to their interests. Indeed, the changing military balance in Syria is bad news for everyone but Iran.
     

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