What results are considered a victory for FPM?

Dark Angel

Legendary Member
This is one of the subjects that will be chewed by the media for a long time, what really constitutes a victory for FPM?

What's the magic number FPM should be shooting for?

in the 2005 Legislative elections Ibrahim Kanaan was the first winner on the FPM list with a 56840 votes, while PG (RIP) was the only winner on the loyalists list with 29421 votes; that translates to 65.8% to mr Kanaan and 34.2% to mr PG.

comparing the last winner on the FPM list, Mr. Murr got 48662 votes, that translates to 62.3% compared to PG's 37.7%.

Therefore as far as the results are concerned anywhere between 62% to 66% is an indication that there was no radical changes on the scene. Considering that this is a partial legislative election and not a national one, the turn out is expected to be considerably less which is in favor of the phalanges who enjoy a wider hardcore relatively to FPM in metn.

so what are your thoughts? what's the magic number should be considered an FPM victory?
 

Placebo

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
This is one of the subjects that will be chewed by the media for a long time, what really constitutes a victory for FPM?

What's the magic number FPM should be shooting for?

in the 2005 Legislative elections Ibrahim Kanaan was the first winner on the FPM list with a 56840 votes, while PG (RIP) was the only winner on the loyalists list with 29421 votes; that translates to 65.8% to mr Kanaan and 34.2% to mr PG.

comparing the last winner on the FPM list, Mr. Murr got 48662 votes, that translates to 62.3% compared to PG's 37.7%.

Therefore as far as the results are concerned anywhere between 62% to 66% is an indication that there was no radical changes on the scene. Considering that this is a partial legislative election and not a national one, the turn out is expected to be considerably less which is in favor of the phalanges who enjoy a wider hardcore relatively to FPM in metn.

so what are your thoughts? what's the magic number should be considered an FPM victory?


for me 51% is a victory even though i'm aiming for much higher. after all that happened of false propaganda against us, with the whole world teaming up to shut us down, i think winning an election against and ex-president and a brother and a father of a martyr will be quite a success.

We should be working hard. still 9 days to go, we'll make every one count.
 

TayyarBeino

Legendary Member
يتوقع الباحث يوسف الدويهي أن يشارك في الانتخابات الفرعية، إذا حصلت، نحو 47% من الناخبين المتنيين، وأن ينال الجميل ما يقارب 35 ألف صوت ومرشح عون نحو 43 ألف، غير أن 5 آب لا يزال بعيداً نسبياً وبإمكان مواقف من مثل «الخطوط الحمر» و«زي ما هيي» و«حروب الإلغاء» أن تفعل فعلها، وتجارب الأمس القريب خير دليل.

عدد الجمعة ٢٧ تموز
al-akhbar
 

Aoune

Active Member
+ 1 vote is a victory over Amine . I will take it and tell them now we want 12 more deputies ( the ones that we will be invalidating) . This way GMA is guaranteed to be the next President of Lebanon.
 

Camillo Torres

Active Member
I would consider Kamil Khoury beating AG by a single vote an important victory, however what is most important is how would our oponents perceive it? I think that we should not exagerate numbers and predict comfortable victories in order not to give our oponents the chance to undermine our victory. Remember this is no easy battle.
 

vegojimbo

Legendary Member
50% +1 is a victory. And a victory is a victory, no?

now, the higher the percentage the more we will shut the 14 febers up.


the 14 feb claim that GMA and FPM lost all their popularity, no? so if FPM wins by one vote, it will prove that we are still the majority. this will be a serious blow to the loyalists especially the christian ones.

All what they will still have left is to attck FPm through the margin of victory. But what they forgot is that wether FPM enjoys 51% support or 70%, FPM still enjoys support of majority of christians.

So it will be all about how to successfully fight the new tactics the loyalists will use after AG's defeat.
 

vegojimbo

Legendary Member
to add, the results of the by-elections can't be translated on the whole scale of Lebanon bc the political demography and composition of Metn is unique.

Metn is a stronghold of Kataeb, so for sure they will have a big base there. And this in itself will minimise the margin of vitory for FPM. there are also tashnag, Murr, SSNP, etc....

What i am pointing at is that if FPM gets 58% of the votes in Metn, that does not mean FPM now represents 58% of christians. this is bc other christian regions do not constitute as strongholds for other parties (except Bcharre). for example, FPM in Kerwen can now still easily get in the high sixties. in 3aley, this time it will be a victory, etc...


however, if the loyalists will play this game with FPM, they will now have to accept that no matter the percentage of votes for FPM, the latter is still the party with the most christian support, and that will be undeniable.
 

sanfour

Well-Known Member
hmmm...let's see.....
a victory against an ex-president of the republic and the supreme chief
of a neo-fascist party? anything above 50% is good but
the more the merrier.
 

Lemon

Well-Known Member
This is one of the subjects that will be chewed by the media for a long time, what really constitutes a victory for FPM?

What's the magic number FPM should be shooting for?

in the 2005 Legislative elections Ibrahim Kanaan was the first winner on the FPM list with a 56840 votes, while PG (RIP) was the only winner on the loyalists list with 29421 votes; that translates to 65.8% to mr Kanaan and 34.2% to mr PG.

comparing the last winner on the FPM list, Mr. Murr got 48662 votes, that translates to 62.3% compared to PG's 37.7%.

Therefore as far as the results are concerned anywhere between 62% to 66% is an indication that there was no radical changes on the scene. Considering that this is a partial legislative election and not a national one, the turn out is expected to be considerably less which is in favor of the phalanges who enjoy a wider hardcore relatively to FPM in metn.

so what are your thoughts? what's the magic number should be considered an FPM victory?
First, I think your calculations are based on strange assumptions. The total number of votes was 83502, which means:

Ibrahim Kenaan: 68.1%
Michel Murr: 58.3%
Pierre Gemayel: 35.2%

The totals of Kenaan and Gemayel are over 100% but that just means that some voters voted for both. I think the bracket of victory that would show that FPM is still in the same ballpark that it was in 2005 is thus anywhere between 58% and 68%. Anything more than that and FPM has actually gained in comparison to 2005, and less than that means a relative loss. But I tend to agree with previous members who agreed that even if FPM wins by just one vote, it's still a victory.
 

Moophz

Active Member
I consider it a victory for "The Lebanese Brain" against "The Lebanese Heart".

Any victory less than 20,000 is a loss, and a signal telling us that Lebanese people will always remain an "Emotional Society".

The people who will vote for FPM are the ones who resisted against the false propaganda and will be resistant for any upcoming one, they will be FPM voters in any upcoming voting session.
 

insensible

Well-Known Member
Guys 50% + 1 = Win and not victory ..
There is difference between 2 words .. Victory = Huge Win ..
I think 62% is a victory :)
 

RamitallicA

Legendary Member
51% / 49% is a victory

there's always a winner and a loser, and the winner takes it all no matter what the results are...

still, I want it to be 70% / 30% which is not hard at all :wink:
 

Zouxi

Well-Known Member
i consider a win for FPM the result of 50.001% to 49.999% for amine gemayel.
Any loss for gemayel means the end of his political life.

Furthermore, in soccer, brazil has won in 1994 against italy in penalty shooting)))
 

sanabel

Well-Known Member
i consider a win for FPM the result of 50.001% to 49.999% for amine gemayel.
Any loss for gemayel means the end of his political life.

Furthermore, in soccer, brazil has won in 1994 against italy in penalty shooting)))

Bagio at that time missed the penatly for the Italians ...FPM will win in Maten because A.Zahra never played the game as supposed to be played easer football or politic....immagine Zahra will win in Maten...
 

Dark Angel

Legendary Member
First, I think your calculations are based on strange assumptions. The total number of votes was 83502, which means:

Ibrahim Kenaan: 68.1%
Michel Murr: 58.3%
Pierre Gemayel: 35.2%

The totals of Kenaan and Gemayel are over 100% but that just means that some voters voted for both. I think the bracket of victory that would show that FPM is still in the same ballpark that it was in 2005 is thus anywhere between 58% and 68%. Anything more than that and FPM has actually gained in comparison to 2005, and less than that means a relative loss. But I tend to agree with previous members who agreed that even if FPM wins by just one vote, it's still a victory.

you have to normalize those numbers before any valid comparisons can be made if you want to measure the change in support for each of the involved parties; especially that this is a one on one confrontation; so both sides must add up to 100%.
 

Dark Angel

Legendary Member
From what preceded, the perception of the Metn legislative elections is a bit alarming; It is true, if we were competing over a parliamentary seat then a 51% should me more than enough. But the question to be asked is what’s really at steak here? If the legislative seat is what matters then we wouldn’t have given it up in 2005.

This is a show of strength; a battle to show the trend on the street, do not make the mistake of believing that Amine is an idiot, he is far from it. He’s not the type of people who could be manipulated into committing political suicide especially by SG. That idea is very simplistic and I am frankly surprised that some FPMers are parading it as a possible reason behind AG’s candidature. A victory for AG and the political line he represents is to destroy GMA’s claim to the presidency by shattering the image of FPM’s overwhelming support in Christian street.

All he needs to do that is to prove that the support for his political line increased significantly at the expense of FPM’s. The peculiarity of the Metn allows AG to interpret the results in a variety of ways in order to support his claim; especially that Murr’s supporters and Tashnaq’s supporters are not true FPMers (as in they are not FPM members or supporters); so in a show of strength, he will end up comparing the pure phalanges block against the FPMer’s block; we are a bit at a disadvantage here in Metn as far as interpretations will go; therefore we need to prove that our support is unshaken, or at least it is not shaken to the point the loyalists (mainly the pro hariri Christians) have been dreaming of.

Anything short of 60% is a defeat for us.
 

Disease

Well-Known Member
we all know that the rate of participation in the sub elections is less than in ordinary elections ,however we should raise the objective and work to reach it .


!! ما بدنا ننجح عالحفة
 
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