What results are considered a victory for FPM?

taifoon

Well-Known Member
DA, i am inclined to agree on your overall conclusion about the need of an FPM crushing majority in this particular Metn election. However, any election results will be, by default and design of our peculiar current poitical mess, subject to suitable interpretations by all parties. I can assure you that even with FPM winning a 99% of the metni votes, you will hear some political loyalist faylasouf deduce on LBC and FV that the lies of FPMs propaganda terror against the harirists innocent lambs which was daily hammered on the metniots, together with the support of the armenians, SSNP, communists, Murr and all the thousand naturalized syrians, is what tipped the scale in favor of FPMs candidate, of course in addition to the lame participation of the true patriotic elements of LF and Kataeb..

On a side note, i think you are underestimating feudal megalomanias ability to distort normally gifted people, let alone emotionally unbalanced ditto who are used since early childhood to fall asleep and wake up to the humming beat of partisan applauses, and who learned to measure joy and self satisfaction with the amount of daily telefon calls and prominent visitors vowing them their due respect and eternal obediance.

Feudalism is another kind of fanatism, a social one. It never stops eating an addicted prey, until all its mental and physical resources are sucked out. Amin Gemayel may not be a complete fool, yet, but he is not that smart after all throwing himself into the lions gap.
 

Dima2ouna.

Member
This election is just to show power! No more no less! So if FPM win with 50% plus one vote, Id consider that a loss because they alost alot of votes. Yes they won the seat but then march14 has every right to say that aoun lost popularity!
Now in my opinion, Im pretty sure that FPM will win (There could be a surprise i dont know) But I will be waaaay more intrested in the maronite votes than the armenian and roum!
 

TayyarBeino

Legendary Member
If we win by over 60% is a great victory and also if Majlis shoura al dawli stop this election, is also a win for FPM
 

Dark Angel

Legendary Member
DA, i am inclined to agree on your overall conclusion about the need of an FPM crushing majority in this particular Metn election. However, any election results will be, by default and design of our peculiar current poitical mess, subject to suitable interpretations by all parties. I can assure you that even with FPM winning a 99% of the metni votes, you will hear some political loyalist faylasouf deduce on LBC and FV that the lies of FPMs propaganda terror against the harirists innocent lambs which was daily hammered on the metniots, together with the support of the armenians, SSNP, communists, Murr and all the thousand naturalized syrians, is what tipped the scale in favor of FPMs candidate, of course in addition to the lame participation of the true patriotic elements of LF and Kataeb..

On a side note, i think you are underestimating feudal megalomanias ability to distort normally gifted people, let alone emotionally unbalanced ditto who are used since early childhood to fall asleep and wake up to the humming beat of partisan applauses, and who learned to measure joy and self satisfaction with the amount of daily telefon calls and prominent visitors vowing them their due respect and eternal obediance.

Feudalism is another kind of fanatism, a social one. It never stops eating an addicted prey, until all its mental and physical resources are sucked out. Amin Gemayel may not be a complete fool, yet, but he is not that smart after all throwing himself into the lions gap.


That’s the democracy model the loyalists and the states are unfortunately trying to spread, they pretend to encourage the people to vote but only accept the results if they suite them.

A national legislative election with 66% support going for FPM failed to make the loyalist acknowledge FPM’s victory; why will they recognize the results of a partial elections now?

they wont recognize nor acknowledge any of our victories, they will instead keep pretending that our popular support has been so eroded, until one of these days they manage to score some points in some election; and they will jump at our throats with so much joy screaming we’ve told you so, you represent no one.

Refusing to acknowledge our victory calls for worries, what if the tables ever turned like they usually do in any democratic system; support changes with time, back and forth; but what will guarantee they wont annihilate us (politically of course) once they manage to secure their 50.1% ?

Democracy is not about the rule of the majority; it is rather about respecting the rights of the minorities; if they refused to respect our rights when we’re victorious, what will they do if we ever happen to lose an election?

This is where the independents must step in, because their future depends on taking action to preserve their rights in victory and in defeat.
 

oscard

Well-Known Member
Orange Room Supporter
hmmm...let's see.....
a victory against an ex-president of the republic and the supreme chief
of a neo-fascist party? anything above 50% is good but
the more the merrier.

i second you.
51 is the number, anything more is better.
 

Amirkani

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
Do you know how the Lebanese Army won the Souk el-Gharb battle against the Syrian Army and Junblat wa man laffa lafifoun? The Army had the last soldier (literally) standing.

It was a big victory we all still remember, wasn't it?

A victory is a victory, and in Maten, a victory it shall be.

But to make everyone more relaxed, I talked to Michel Hayek and he has seen the results: Amine 25K, Cammouletna 40k.

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Youchka

Legendary Member
This election is just to show power! No more no less! So if FPM win with 50% plus one vote, Id consider that a loss because they alost alot of votes. Yes they won the seat but then march14 has every right to say that aoun lost popularity!
Now in my opinion, Im pretty sure that FPM will win (There could be a surprise i dont know) But I will be waaaay more intrested in the maronite votes than the armenian and roum!

There is another thread to enjoy dissecting Christians, go have a blast.
 

joseph_lubnan

Legendary Member
For FPM to win politically and not just win a seat, it needs a decisive win with better than 60% amongst Christians in general and better than 60% amongst Maronites. if it gets less than that then it would have won the seat and lost politically. My personal prediction is that FPM will actually lose this election by a very slim margin of perhaps 49% because many will cast a protest vote against FPM, and view this election as their opportunity to send a clear message to FPM.
 

Danny Z

Legendary Member
For FPM to win politically and not just win a seat, it needs a decisive win with better than 60% amongst Christians in general and better than 60% amongst Maronites. if it gets less than that then it would have won the seat and lost politically. My personal prediction is that FPM will actually lose this election by a very slim margin of perhaps 49% because many will cast a protest vote against FPM, and view this election as their opportunity to send a clear message to FPM.

Dude

I bookmarked this post, if you still dare to show your nick on August 6 (in case majles el shoura did not change their mind) I will remind you then how bad you can read the political landscape. It will also be a good example of how you should try to listen to what the people have to say rather than invent facts and believe them and try to push them on the people, hastening your own political end like Gemayel is doing.
I have no doubts that you believe that Gemayyel will win, let this post be a reminder that you like Amine, believe your own propaganda.
See you on August 6th
 

joseph_lubnan

Legendary Member
Dude

I bookmarked this post, if you still dare to show your nick on August 6 (in case majles el shoura did not change their mind) I will remind you then how bad you can read the political landscape. It will also be a good example of how you should try to listen to what the people have to say rather than invent facts and believe them.
I have no doubts that you believe that Gemayyel will win, let this post be a reminder that you like Amine, believe your own propaganda.
See you on August 6th

I will be here to discuss with you and everyone on the forum. If I am wrong I will be happy to stand corrected. Let democracy take its course. btw I do not believe that AG will win, I believe rather that FPM will lose.
 

Dark Angel

Legendary Member
For FPM to win politically and not just win a seat, it needs a decisive win with better than 60% amongst Christians in general and better than 60% amongst Maronites. if it gets less than that then it would have won the seat and lost politically. My personal prediction is that FPM will actually lose this election by a very slim margin of perhaps 49% because many will cast a protest vote against FPM, and view this election as their opportunity to send a clear message to FPM.

The voters sent you a message 2 years ago, a very clear massage, but your political leadership blatantly ignored it; they have showed that they have utmost disregard and disrespect to the will of the citizens and the voters.

In case we win or we lose, the voter will always be disrespected by those leaderships; so at the end of the day the numbers do not matter if the fundamentals of democracy are not respected.

The reason behind starting this thread is not to justify the results to our political opponents, if you review this thread you should notice that we all agree on the uselessness of having the loyalists acknowledge the results, the point behind this thread is to justify our own performance to ourselves in order to better qualify it.
 

Amirkani

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
For FPM to win politically and not just win a seat, it needs a decisive win with better than 60% amongst Christians in general and better than 60% amongst Maronites. if it gets less than that then it would have won the seat and lost politically. My personal prediction is that FPM will actually lose this election by a very slim margin of perhaps 49% because many will cast a protest vote against FPM, and view this election as their opportunity to send a clear message to FPM.
FPM already won.

They thought they had Aoun and FPM cornered in a lose-lose situation.

Aoun turned it around. It's still a lose-lose situation... however, it's Amine and his sponsor Hariri who will lose no matter what.

Lose by losing, or lose by begging not to lose.

All what's left to decide now is which of the two is a bigger loss.

You've heard the saying "if you lose, you lose; and if you win you still lose", no? Well this time it's not even that. This time it goes "if you lose, you lose; and if you lose, you still lose".

Yalla, who is he going to beg next after the Patriarch? Maybe the Pope. After the Pope, ma ra7 yeb2elo illa Allah!

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Danny Z

Legendary Member
The voters sent you a message 2 years ago, a very clear massage, but your political leadership blatantly ignored it; they have showed that they have utmost disregard and disrespect to the will of the citizens and the voters.

In case we win or we lose, the voter will always be disrespected by those leaderships; so at the end of the day the numbers do not matter if the fundamentals of democracy are not respected.

The reason behind starting this thread is not to justify the results to our political opponents, if you review this thread you should notice that we all agree on the uselessness of having the loyalists acknowledge the results, the point behind this thread is to justify our own performance to ourselves in order to better qualify it.


You have to give credit to Nassib Lahoud, who took his loss graciously and gave right to the people, since then he has not backed Feb 14 in the Metn Election and he has not joined the bashing contest.
Some people understand and try to fix it (though it needs more than what he did to fix it) some hasten their end, by not being able to predict or read their opponents or even listen to the people. It is a must that we got rid of those so called leaders, if they can't read the people how do you expect them to lead a country towards a better future.
 

joseph_lubnan

Legendary Member
FPM already won.

They thought they had Aoun and FPM cornered in a lose-lose situation.

Aoun turned it around. It's still a lose-lose situation... however, it's Amine and his sponsor Hariri who will lose no matter what.

Lose by losing, or lose by begging not to lose.

All what's left to decide now is which of the two is a bigger loss.

You've heard the saying "if you lose, lose; and if you win you still lose", no? Well this time it's not even that. This time it goes "if you lose, you lose; and if you lose, you still lose".

Yalla, who is he going to beg next after the Patriarch? Maybe the Pope. After the Pope, ma ra7 yeb2elo illa Allah!

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The people on both sides want this election, and this election is good and I hope it will be done. I do not agree with the patriarch, I think the people want to and should vote. This vote in my mind is a referendum on FPM popularity, I could care less if AG wins or not, I would like the Christian community to have the answer on the FPM popularity in 2007 once and for all. If anything I would have preferred another independent candidate instead of AG, but in today's Christian community there is a lack of creativity.

FPM hasn't won yet. It will win or lose once the results of this referrundum are out...
 

kappa273

Well-Known Member
The people on both sides want this election, and this election is good and I hope it will be done. I do not agree with the patriarch, I think the people want to and should vote. This vote in my mind is a referendum on FPM popularity, I could care less if AG wins or not, I would like the Christian community to have the answer on the FPM popularity in 2007 once and for all. If anything I would have preferred another independent candidate instead of AG, but in today's Christian community there is a lack of creativity.

FPM hasn't won yet. It will win or lose once the results of this referrundum are out...


abou el zouz, why didn't you run for the elections?

FPM popularity will be calculated among the people who vote or the denominator will be the total number of people allowed to vote?

in other words,
let's say only 20% vote and FPM gets 75% of those 20%...

will this count as a victory with 75% or we will start comparing 20% to 49% of last time and then consider all those 30% as those who disagree with FPM but didn't find a good candidate in gemayel and as such they become automatically Hariri supporters?

kappa

kappa
 

Amirkani

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
The people on both sides want this election, and this election is good and I hope it will be done. I do not agree with the pope, I think the people want to and should vote. This vote in my mind is a referendum on FPM popularity, I could care less if AG wins or not, I would like the Christian community to have the answer on the FPM popularity in 2007 once and for all. If anything I would have preferred another independent candidate instead of AG.
And the answer shall be given. It happens that this time it will be given by a Christian majority. Next time the big answer will come from both Moslems and Christians.

FPM always bows to the will of the people. Once you're from the people, you can't but bow to their will.

You bow, the people will elevate you. You elevate yourself (à la Amine), the people will force you to bow.

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Amirkani

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
FPM hasn't won yet. It will win or lose once the results of this referrundum are out...
I've got to answer this one since you added it after my post and I just saw it.

FPM did indeed already win. If you had any idea what FPM meant to accomplish by contesting this election, you would know that they have already won.

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Danny Z

Legendary Member
I've got to answer this one since you added it after my post and I just saw it.

FPM did indeed already win. If you had any idea what FPM meant to accomplish by contesting this election, you would know that they have already won.

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I got to add this
Aoun said:" Fi el maten al shamali sa taskot el 7oukouma al ghayr shar3iya"
If majles el shoura saves AG tomorrow, FPM would win tomorrow not on August 5, otherwise we will have to wait until then.
Boulos Matar, the batrak, geagea, AG and all those who want tawefok (tawefok on saving AG) should try to avoid falling with the government.
Bkerke has to really watch out for people fleeing the church à la Quebecoise.
 

Orange Patriot

Well-Known Member
FPM already won.

They thought they had Aoun and FPM cornered in a lose-lose situation.

Aoun turned it around. It's still a lose-lose situation... however, it's Amine and his sponsor Hariri who will lose no matter what.

Lose by losing, or lose by begging not to lose.

All what's left to decide now is which of the two is a bigger loss.

You've heard the saying "if you lose, you lose; and if you win you still lose", no? Well this time it's not even that. This time it goes "if you lose, you lose; and if you lose, you still lose".

Yalla, who is he going to beg next after the Patriarch? Maybe the Pope. After the Pope, ma ra7 yeb2elo illa Allah!

---------------

I would pay atention to this response asit summarizes the win we already have, perfectly.

For those that are skeptical, I ask you to look at the daily symptoms:

the desperate daily escalation of [stupidity] in suggestive insults by feb14 and gmayel in particular, that insinuate that metnese are sheep that the gmayel's "own" metn, that people running or voting against them are killers...etc. [more and more surprises everyday]

People, metni or not, are not naive to fall for such cheap advertisements.

It becomes laughable at best, and has a wiplash effect at worst. A wiplash effect that take favor away from the Gmayels.

It is everywhere, the talk of just simple riducluousnes and strnage erratic behavior of Amine Gmayel.

Which brings us back to our question: what is considered a victory?

Any win considering the widespread coordinated negative propaganda, a fuedal icon, and default hardcore representation, is a win.

Any difference over one vote or 60% would be, MAKE NO MISTAKE, just icing on the cake.

Note: A true win...would be for Amine Gmayel to come to his senses, even in the last hour, and politically manouver his way to reconcilliation with FPM.
 

unitedlb

Well-Known Member
In Australia, on a two-party preferred basis, >56% of the vote is considered a safe win. Additionally, anything greater than a 6% swing is considered a significant swing. This also means that a safe seat can potentially become marginal. For example, a swing from 80%-70% for example is worse than a swing from 70%-65%, regardless of the original and final percentage. What matters is ths swing, as it is an indication of the party performance.


According to the last elections, the two-party prefered between FPM and Kataeb was 66:34. A number of people on this forum will be happy with a 50.01% victory. But this would comprise a 16% swing which is terrible. I think a 'victory figure' must be based on three points as follows:

1. Reality on the ground
2. Results of last elections

The reality on the ground is that we are competing against Amine Gemayyel, who obviously has much more support than his martyred son Pierre. We have been victims of the disgusting media for two years as well as the use of the martyr's blood (i.e. sympathy vote) and not to mention the money being thrown and the spread of fear tactics. The position of the Maronite church is not helping either. So although I don't expect this to cause a 17% swing and cost us the seat, I do expect a minor swing against us. However, I think we should aim not to suffer more than a 6% swing, which would be considered as bad party performance.

So although I think we should aim on improving our current 66% figure, in my opinion, anything above 60% will be considered a victory, while anything will 60% will be considered a loss.


Anything > 6% swing is drastic, as it means tha
 
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