What's the best way to invest $100,000?

shadow1

shadow1

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You must remember one thing that Lebanon is the only country in the world where people do not hold their elected officials accountable for anything. Corruption is too pervasive to be weeded out and the only ones capable of doing it are the ones benefiting the most from it. So really why should they care? What is striking is their greed is insatiable.

IMO the lira will crash (In fact it should have already) is that debt is increasing at a pace there is no way to deal with it but to hit the printing button. Either that or allow the collapse of the banking system. This option gives the depositors the illusion that their money in LL is safe. Enough to tame them into willful submission like they always do. Printing money could halve government's debt.

what will happen between now and the inevitable collapse is an opportunity for the rich to dollarise their assets or at least hedge them while the unwise opt for higher interest on their LL deposits.

I wonder if anyone here could tell me how much of the foreign reserves the central bank holds is actually its own and not the banks'?
And I didnt here either
 
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  • shadow1

    shadow1

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    " Unless it suddenly is?" why does it have to happen suddenly when it is all clear before your own eyes. in The first 9 mo of the year the budget deficit came way higher than the budget predicted. Not that anyone should ever take seriously any figures corrupt and incompetent politicians give.

    Let me quote to you an allegory given by Warren Buffet after the burst of the dot.com bubble. He said everyone knew the party will end at midnight, they were all gathered at the exits staring at the clock and waiting for it to strike midnight so they can make a run for their lives. Except the clock had no hands.
    the same thing is happening right now. If you read what people said in this thread, nearly all expect a collapse when the clock strikes midnight yet the clock has no hands.
    Now is not the time to be greedy but to protect your capital. Apartments in lebanon are not a good investment especially as a civil war is forever looming. Land is better. The reason banks are offering high interest is that they know something you are hesitating to acknowledge. Don't buy into the rumours that they have a liquidity problem. They are trying to suck in the small depositor with attractive interest so the big ones can have the dollars.



    Think about it: if government stops paying wages, and companies go on laying workers off, what will happen to the real estate market? Massive defaults and flats as cheap as chips. Good for the expats but quite of few of them will be burnt badly and they may never deposit a cent in Lebanon.
    Getting your money out of the country is the best option you have. Wait out the storm and come back in a year or two and sell your USD at 5000LL if not 10000LL and deposit it at 30%.
    Having said all of that if you can afford to lose your capital the risk is worth taking but I'd take it on Syria or Turkey but not Lebanon. The country is simply too hopeless.

    BTW The poor are not blessed at all. God cursed them and they have proven they deserve it.
    wow
     
    shadow1

    shadow1

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    The bank that asks you to bring in your dollar, convert it to LL and be paid 15% interest when you would be lucky to get 3% return on the dollars anywhere safe in the world, is effectively doing that. Better still if you go to borrow money in LL they charge you less than 15% so you ask yourself why is this happening? It can only make sense in the context that the bank expects a sharp drop in the value of the Lira.

    Shorting the lira entails dealing with a big interest rates differential and that could be prohibitive if you dont have deep pockets especially in a country where the currency is fixed by the central bank and not determined by the market. Besides the banks may not allow you to do it on margin. I do it in an easier way, Have your assets in dollars and your liabilities in LL.

    Rating agencies are neither idiotic nor sentimental. Lebanese offcials are steeped in deception and lying to them as mitl shorb l may, a second nature if you like. So who do you believe better? A lebanese official averse to to telling the truth or a respected rating agency?

    The president said the country is broke. The governor of the central bank said the Lira is safe "for now" and in some reports he said till 2020. The minister for finance proposed a hair cut to bond holders and even the Cyprus solution whereby bank depositors lose a portion of their deposits. And most importantly the country is run by thieves and crooks. Add all these things together and for god sake how many clues do you need?

    Some time can be bought with the funds pledged by the Cedar conference but once the politicians do with the money the same way they did with previous loans, what next? I wont say grants as those end up being stolen anyhow. wil balad ma byekhod min l jamal illa dayntou.

    Essentially the question is not if there is going to be a collapse in the Lebanese pound but when. Countries Like Lebanon are inherently doomed irrespective of who is in charge. The debt is simply too great to service and something has to give. And what the officials say about Lebanon not defaulting ever can still be valid but what's important in this statement is to know where the money is coming from to service the debt. The money you deposited at the bank most likely and not your taxes.

    Donor countries imposed restrictions on Lebanon to give it more loans. Bas those europeans mish abda2 min rjel l siyesseh 3inna. They'll give them the budget they want to hear. And everyone will pretend they are telling the truth and knows they are not.
    And finally I have been proven right
     
    Murder he wrote

    Murder he wrote

    Well-Known Member
    Guys, what will happen to our money in the banks in $$USD? Any idea?
     
    Leb_Rebel

    Leb_Rebel

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    Guys, what will happen to our money in the banks in $$USD? Any idea?
    You're in the wrong for this buddy.

    Short answer, no one knows.

    Slightly longer answer :
    - The longer this goes on, the more likely your money will be untouchable for a very long time, maybe even it will be partly requisitioned by the state
    - If measures are taken sooner rather than later, we MIGHT get our head out of the water in 6 months, without deposits being touched.

    Either way, USD will be rationed until a political decision is taken.
     
    Chingon

    Chingon

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    My dad is retiring pretty soon and coming back to lebanon from the gulf with USDs guys any advice on whats the best option here? I was thinking maybe of depositing in more than one bank in lebanon but does it really matter?

    he already suffered the lira crash during the civil war and lost years of savings I don't want the same shit to happen to him again.
     
    agnostic

    agnostic

    Legendary Member
    My dad is retiring pretty soon and coming back to lebanon from the gulf with USDs guys any advice on whats the best option here? I was thinking maybe of depositing in more than one bank in lebanon but does it really matter?

    he already suffered the lira crash during the civil war and lost years of savings I don't want the same shit to happen to him again.
    Go to China and save his USD money in some banks there. For note, bank transfers to China aren't charged any fees. He can choose a place with a weather that suits him and start any business if he wishes to keep working.
     
    Chingon

    Chingon

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    Go to China and save his USD money in some banks there. For note, bank transfers to China aren't charged any fees. He can choose a place with a weather that suits him and start any business if he wishes to keep working.
    I can't really send my dad to china and he doesn't want to live anywhere other than lebanon :( even if he had the chance to. I think he will take some cash back to Lebanon and send the rest to my mobile only uk bank account as they don't charge any fees on foreign ATM withdrawals if he needs it.
     
    Rafidi

    Rafidi

    Legendary Member
    I can't really send my dad to china and he doesn't want to live anywhere other than lebanon :( even if he had the chance to. I think he will take some cash back to Lebanon and send the rest to my mobile only uk bank account as they don't charge any fees on foreign ATM withdrawals if he needs it.
    If it is a huge sum, divide it into four.

    Divide one quarter (depending on how huge the amount is) into another four parts and place in four different banks in Lebanon.

    Divide one quarter into another four parts and keep in European banks.

    Keep one quarter at home in a safe.

    The other one quarter let him use it and travel and have fun.
     
    HalaMadrid

    HalaMadrid

    Active Member
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    My dad is retiring pretty soon and coming back to lebanon from the gulf with USDs guys any advice on whats the best option here? I was thinking maybe of depositing in more than one bank in lebanon but does it really matter?

    he already suffered the lira crash during the civil war and lost years of savings I don't want the same shit to happen to him again.
    Some indications from finance folks that BLF and Byblos are best positioned to withstand the crisis (and ultimately let you access your money in dollars), but I'd confirm this first:

     
    Chingon

    Chingon

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    Orange Room Supporter
    If it is a huge sum, divide it into four.

    Divide one quarter (depending on how huge the amount is) into another four parts and place in four different banks in Lebanon.

    Divide one quarter into another four parts and keep in European banks.

    Keep one quarter at home in a safe.

    The other one quarter let him use it and travel and have fun.
    A safe is a good option. He might need cash for emergencies.

    I asked my UK bank and they don't have a problem receiving a large amount of money via international bank transfer. I think they might make a fuss if I need to transfer it all back at once, but thats a headache for another day.

    The rest will have to go into Lebanese banks, I think a quarter would be a reasonable amount.

    Thanks for the advice!
     
    Chingon

    Chingon

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    Some indications from finance folks that BLF and Byblos are best positioned to withstand the crisis (and ultimately let you access your money in dollars), but I'd confirm this first:

    I heard good things about BLF and Fransabank, but I was told Byblos are in deep shit since their failed investments in Turkey or was that Audi can't remember.
     
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