Will HA retaliate against American interests in Lebanon?

My Moria Moon

My Moria Moon

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Short or long lasting war may or may not break out any time between USA and Iran.
HA is Iran's closest ally in Lebanon and practically a Lebanese extension of the IRGC.
If war breaks out, do you think HA will quickly engage? If so, to what extent?
Will they carefully restrict their engagement to outside Lebanese borders, for example enroll more actively as fighting units in the IRGC or say execute military operations against American targets in the Persian gulf or in other parts of the world?
Or will they choose to ignore Lebanon's national interests, drop all restrictions and indirectly plunge Lebanon into the conflict by hitting against American interests inside Lebanon?

If the later, what do you think are the consequences for Lebanon of such move, politically, militarily and economically?
 
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    Short or long lasting war may or may not break out any time between USA and Iran.
    HA is Iran's closest ally in Lebanon and practically a Lebanese extension of the IRGC.
    If war breaks out, do you think HA will quickly engage? If so, to what extent?
    Will they carefully restrict their engagement to outside Lebanese borders, for example enroll more actively as fighting units in the IRGC or say execute military operations against American targets in the Persian gulf or in other parts of the world?
    Or will they choose to ignore Lebanon's national interests, drop all restrictions and indirectly plunge Lebanon into the conflict by hitting against American interests inside Lebanon?

    If the later, what do you think are the consequences for Lebanon of such move, politically, militarily and economically?
    I believe Trump just realized Iran is serious about defending itself. Also he must have realized he's not prepared to dealing with the world economic consequences when Iran retaliates.
    If war broke with Iran, there will be an economic disaster for every golf state and subsequently to the world economy.
    Saudi Arabia's civil war will eventually ignite.
    In such case, Hezbollah has nothing to gain and everything to lose by not interfering. I'm pretty sure they will...
    The bad intentions against Iran are no secret but I doubt Trump and the West are ready for such a sacrifice when they can sit and talk with Iran the same way they talked with N. Korea.

    I'm reposting two very insightful videos. Must watch!
    The Gulf and subsequently the World are going through a very dangerous phase. I think we need to give Trump credit for overcoming his ego and backing down.



     
    V

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    Here is the full report...
    Look at Trump's face language: Disturbance?

     
    JB81

    JB81

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    HA are smarter than retaliating to American interests in Lebanon.

    Anyhow, what interests do America have in Lebanon other than supporting it's institutions?
     
    My Moria Moon

    My Moria Moon

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    I believe Trump just realized Iran is serious about defending itself. Also he must have realized he's not prepared to dealing with the world economic consequences when Iran retaliates.
    If war broke with Iran, there will be an economic disaster for every golf state and subsequently to the world economy.
    Saudi Arabia's civil war will eventually ignite.
    In such case, Hezbollah has nothing to gain and everything to lose by not interfering. I'm pretty sure they will...
    The bad intentions against Iran are no secret but I doubt Trump and the West are ready for such a sacrifice when they can sit and talk with Iran the same way they talked with N. Korea.

    I'm reposting two very insightful videos. Must watch!
    The Gulf and subsequently the World are going through a very dangerous phase. I think we need to give Trump credit for overcoming his ego and backing down.



    Here is the full report...
    Look at Trump's face language: Disturbance?

    Probably war is not imminent, not now or in a near future.. Yet, it could break out, and the question remains:
    Will HA throw Lebanon into the conflict by hitting American targets inside Lebanon? Or will it manage to refrain and keep it outside the expected hell hole on so many levels?
     
    My Moria Moon

    My Moria Moon

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    HA are smarter than retaliating to American interests in Lebanon.

    Anyhow, what interests do America have in Lebanon other than supporting it's institutions?
    A huge embassy?
     
    Nonan

    Nonan

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    In such case, Hezbollah has nothing to gain and everything to lose by not interfering.
    ]
    What exactly has HA to gain by interfering? Will it help advance Lebanon’s cause? Will it solve the Syrian and Palestinian refugee problems? Will it solve the corruption issues? The crumbling economy, infrastructure, environment? Or will it simply bring more destruction and economic devastation to Lebanon?
     
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    Probably war is not imminent, not now or in a near future.. Yet, it could break out, and the question remains:
    Will HA throw Lebanon into the conflict by hitting American targets inside Lebanon? Or will it manage to refrain and keep it outside the expected hell hole on so many levels?
    I don't believe Hezbollah is in a hurry to get involved in a bloody war based on emotions but by looking at the bigger picture, crippling Iran means the end of everything Hezbollah has achieved in Lebanon's territorial and maritime integrity, safety and security. Not to mention temptations for a second round of civil war in Syria becomes an new opportunity which will eventually spill over to Lebanon regardless of what Hezbollah does. Iran war will become a regional war and a global economic disaster. In such case scenario, Iran and it's allies have nothing to lose by attacking oil structures in Gulf States that allow attacks launched from their territories. Iraq and most likely Qatar will side with Iran and The UAE especially Bahrain along with KSA can very easily lose control of their own people.
    I think what will prevent such disaster from igniting is the fact that Russia and China are fully charged to react and the EU is finally realizing they mean absolutely nothing to Trump administration.
     
    V

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    What exactly has HA to gain by interfering? Will it help advance Lebanon’s cause? Will it solve the Syrian and Palestinian refugee problems? Will it solve the corruption issues? The crumbling economy, infrastructure, environment? Or will it simply bring more destruction and economic devastation to Lebanon?
    It is nice to worry about Lebanon's little issues. We tend to think we are bigger than we really are... Unfortunately Lebanon will melt down simply from the heat emanating from a regional war. Not to mention the Lebanese workers in the Gulf when their economy collapses and civil unrest starts breaking out. So HA presence can be a positive factor discouraging the Gulf war from taking place as it stands for Iran's non dismissible power other wise Iran today would look like Iraq 2003... Iran seems to learn a lot faster than the Arabs: You can't stand naked at the mercy of International Law for protecting you and your rights. Hezbollah learned that too I might add. Trump's name is posted on the Golan Heights but no where South of Litany... Now that's a fact!
     
    light-in-dark

    light-in-dark

    Legendary Member
    HA should not do anything against the interests of Lebanon. If HA riposts I think it will lose the internal support of Lebanese people and foreign support. USA and Iran are two sovereign countries that can decide their own war and peace. As Lebanese, we have nothing to in both cases.
     
    O Brother

    O Brother

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    What about the Zionist entity will they not make any move? Or what about American interests in Syria will it not be a target and vice versa?

    I think it is pretty impossible for HA to be watching it all out while their daddy is being beaten up!

    The whole point with HA and the likes of HA are to retaliate in such scenarios and to expect them not to do it is just silly !
     
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    Jo

    Jo

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    An attack on Iran is an attack on HA and Lebanon. I can already hear SHN saying this.
     
    O Brother

    O Brother

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    HA should not do anything against the interests of Lebanon. If HA riposts I think it will lose the internal support of Lebanese people and foreign support. USA and Iran are two sovereign countries that can decide their own war and peace. As Lebanese, we have nothing to in both cases.
    What you believe to be the interest of Lebanon is not equal or same to what HA believe it to be!

    HA already got its strong internal support through the Shia..
    The Christian/Maronite support can be good to have but it is not the end of the day if they somehow totally lose it.

    They would still have Slayman Franjie's support no matter what though :lol:
    Which is more than enough as "Christian cover"
     
    Resign

    Resign

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    What you believe to be the interest of Lebanon is not equal or same to what HA believe it to be!

    HA already got its strong internal support through the Shia..
    The Christian/Maronite support can be good to have but it is not the end of the day if they somehow totally lose it.

    They would still have Slayman Franjie's support no matter what though :lol:
    Which is more than enough as "Christian cover"
    How is Franjie’s 3MPs christian cover ‘more than enough’?
     
    O Brother

    O Brother

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    How is Franjie’s 3MPs christian cover ‘more than enough’?
    You are obsessed with MPs like it is the thing that truly count!
    what is stronger in Lebanon Za3ami or some MP seats?
    Walid Jumblat is a perfect example to answer this!

    And honestly a Christian cover is overrated in such scenario..
    And who would you side with? USA and KSA? well it wouldn't be so strange after all these two were the allies of the past until they back stabbed you but still you feel strongly attached to USA.
     
    Resign

    Resign

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    You are obsessed with MPs like it is the thing that truly count!
    what is stronger in Lebanon Za3ami or some MP seats?
    Walid Jumblat is a perfect example to answer this!

    And honestly a Christian cover is overrated in such scenario..
    And who would you side with? USA and KSA? well it wouldn't be so strange after all these two were the allies of the past until they back stabbed you but still you feel strongly attached to USA.
    The number of MPs directly represents your size on the ground.

    Wrong comparison
    Jumblatt has 6 Druze MPs out of the 8 available seats
    Franjiye has 3 out of 64

    i'll be generous and say he represents 5% of the christian street
    sorry but 5% do not speak in the name of the mass and can provide no cover.

    How about we side with no one ?
    Lebanese Christians simply want to live in peace
     
    O Brother

    O Brother

    Legendary Member
    The number of MPs directly represents your size on the ground.

    Wrong comparison
    Jumblatt has 6 Druze MPs out of the 8 available seats
    Franjiye has 3 out of 64

    i'll be generous and say he represents 5% of the christian street
    sorry but 5% do not speak in the name of the mass and can provide no cover.

    How about we side with no one ?
    Lebanese Christians simply want to live in peace
    We all want to live in peace..
    but the aggressors who created artificial states in our region do not want us to live in peace unless we all bend down like the gulf countries and accept being...!

    And trust me these MPs la bi admou wala bi akhrou metil elton!
    The power do not lies in the hands of these MPs they are nobodies and no crucial legislation would pass without any agreement or approval is accepted beforehand by the key players.

    MPs are not but 3abd ma2mour..

    ye3ni if someone want for Franjiyeh and the like of him to count then he will count whether he represent 1% or 65%
     
    My Moria Moon

    My Moria Moon

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    It is nice to worry about Lebanon's little issues.
    Yes, nice.. and Lebanon's little issues.. Not sure what you mean exactly, but for Lebanese in Lebanon plunging Lebanon into a war between a Rex and a Raptor is not a little issue.

    We tend to think we are bigger than we really are... Unfortunately Lebanon will melt down simply from the heat emanating from a regional war. Not to mention the Lebanese workers in the Gulf when their economy collapses and civil unrest starts breaking out.
    Ya khayye keeping us at a heat's distance instead of throwing us right into the burning inferno is still showing some extra care for what's left of this m3attar country.

    So HA presence can be a positive factor discouraging the Gulf war from taking place as it stands for Iran's non dismissible power other wise Iran today would look like Iraq 2003...
    Speaking of inflated grandiosity, when/if a regional war scenario is finalized for action, HA's role in the big picture will be allocated equal importance as the IRGC, no more no less. For us Lebanese, we'll get the same treatment as the guardians of the Mullahs.

    Iran seems to learn a lot faster than the Arabs: You can't stand naked at the mercy of International Law for protecting you and your rights. Hezbollah learned that too I might add. Trump's name is posted on the Golan Heights but no where South of Litany... Now that's a fact!
    I agree to that. But in another universe where wishful ideals are realized on demand, I'd have wished that HA thankfully took Mullahs money but made it clear it wouldn't "jump" their orders with "how high". Yeah, I know, an impossible equation in a cruel clash of interests game. Shia needs to preserve their existence in the south and the rest are constantly worried about theirs in the rest of the country.
     
    JB81

    JB81

    Legendary Member
    We all want to live in peace..
    but the aggressors who created artificial states in our region do not want us to live in peace unless we all bend down like the gulf countries and accept being...!

    And trust me these MPs la bi admou wala bi akhrou metil elton!
    The power do not lies in the hands of these MPs they are nobodies and no crucial legislation would pass without any agreement or approval is accepted beforehand by the key players.

    MPs are not but 3abd ma2mour..

    ye3ni if someone want for Franjiyeh and the like of him to count then he will count whether he represent 1% or 65%
    Artificial states is subjective... Hopefully you don't mean you look for a prejudice Islamic State
     
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