Will HA retaliate against American interests in Lebanon?

L

lebanese1

Legendary Member
Oh I see and you thought I did not know that the deal was for 10 and 15 years limits :)
It was a win for the US at the time under Obama. Now with a more hawkish Trump, a better deal will be extracted :)
amrika_shaytan always wins. even when zozou_usa feels humiliated w 3am bi darib 3a ketteb el ba3s bi cha2labit l 2mour w da7ch el ras bel trab!

amrika chaytan da2iman 3ala 7akk :lol:
 
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  • Lebanese Pride

    Lebanese Pride

    Well-Known Member
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    The hawks on this forum made fun of Galloway when I posted this earlier. They all disappeared now...
    All the answers to this outcome can be found in this clip.
    Only deterrence can bring peace in a world overrun by warmongers.

    Yup lets ignore the fact that Iraq beat Iran's ass in their war lol
     
    Rafidi

    Rafidi

    Legendary Member
    Short or long lasting war may or may not break out any time between USA and Iran.
    HA is Iran's closest ally in Lebanon and practically a Lebanese extension of the IRGC.
    If war breaks out, do you think HA will quickly engage? If so, to what extent?
    Will they carefully restrict their engagement to outside Lebanese borders, for example enroll more actively as fighting units in the IRGC or say execute military operations against American targets in the Persian gulf or in other parts of the world?
    Or will they choose to ignore Lebanon's national interests, drop all restrictions and indirectly plunge Lebanon into the conflict by hitting against American interests inside Lebanon?

    If the later, what do you think are the consequences for Lebanon of such move, politically, militarily and economically?
    Let us put the question in another way.

    Let us imagine the worse case scenario. Let's say the US attack and invades Iran, no matter how difficult that would be and no matter the consequences.

    Let's say Hezballah doesn't interfere and doesn't start a war with israehell, whether from Lebanon or through Syria. Afterwards, how will Lebanese parties opposed to Hezballah react? Will they commend Hezballah and behave like nothing happened. Or will they capitalize on regional changes through a sense of feeling empowered?

    I do not doubt the wisdom of Hezballah and its leadership. If they start a confrontation, it simply means not starting one would be the worse option for themselves and for Lebanon and all its people. And starting one would be the better option for a better outcome. They have the power and men. And they have the foresight too to wisely decide on what to do. I am not afraid of the decision Hezbollah will make because they can calculate wisely. I am much more afraid of the stupid decision parties like FM, LF, PSP etc. will make to capitalize on regional developments. They have tried it before, after the Hariri assassination. And we got many years of political turmoil that negatively affected Saad Hariri politically and ended up with the March 14 alliance disbanding and losing a majority in parliament, not through the wisdom of the Lebanese people that followed them, but through a fairer electoral law; and then Aoun finally became President and Saad retreated or even surrendered. So if a war breaks out, and the rogue elements within the government who are presently in hibernation mode try to take advantage of the situation, I don't fear external interference. The internal rogue elements will feel empowered to create instability and look for a fight they will surely lose eventually. With Iran gone as a power, and Hezballah under attack, it will not look promising for the FPM in particular, and Christians generally in Lebanon. The enemies of the FPM are many. And Hezballah is not one of them. Even your enemies within the Christian community are many and they could try to take advantage of the situation over you. That means the face of Lebanon will totally be changed forever. Many of us agree that if parties opposed to Hezballah were the ones that have the firepower and that Hezballah has, Lebanon would have been engulfed in fire through their irrational and violent actions.

    In the end, the US will not dare attack Iran. If it does attack Iran, the enemies of Iran, including the US will be in an unenviable situation in the region. Same with the enemies of Hezballah in Lebanon. There will be NO or zero tolerance for their presence if their threat is existential. There will be no Doha accord to save them. It will be a full blown war and it must end with a victor.
     
    My Moria Moon

    My Moria Moon

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Let us put the question in another way.

    Let us imagine the worse case scenario. Let's say the US attack and invades Iran, no matter how difficult that would be and no matter the consequences.

    Let's say Hezballah doesn't interfere and doesn't start a war with israehell, whether from Lebanon or through Syria. Afterwards, how will Lebanese parties opposed to Hezballah react? Will they commend Hezballah and behave like nothing happened. Or will they capitalize on regional changes through a sense of feeling empowered?

    I do not doubt the wisdom of Hezballah and its leadership. If they start a confrontation, it simply means not starting one would be the worse option for themselves and for Lebanon and all its people. And starting one would be the better option for a better outcome. They have the power and men. And they have the foresight too to wisely decide on what to do. I am not afraid of the decision Hezbollah will make because they can calculate wisely. I am much more afraid of the stupid decision parties like FM, LF, PSP etc. will make to capitalize on regional developments. They have tried it before, after the Hariri assassination. And we got many years of political turmoil that negatively affected Saad Hariri politically and ended up with the March 14 alliance disbanding and losing a majority in parliament, not through the wisdom of the Lebanese people that followed them, but through a fairer electoral law; and then Aoun finally became President and Saad retreated or even surrendered. So if a war breaks out, and the rogue elements within the government who are presently in hibernation mode try to take advantage of the situation, I don't fear external interference. The internal rogue elements will feel empowered to create instability and look for a fight they will surely lose eventually. With Iran gone as a power, and Hezballah under attack, it will not look promising for the FPM in particular, and Christians generally in Lebanon. The enemies of the FPM are many. And Hezballah is not one of them. Even your enemies within the Christian community are many and they could try to take advantage of the situation over you. That means the face of Lebanon will totally be changed forever. Many of us agree that if parties opposed to Hezballah were the ones that have the firepower and that Hezballah has, Lebanon would have been engulfed in fire through their irrational and violent actions.

    In the end, the US will not dare attack Iran. If it does attack Iran, the enemies of Iran, including the US will be in an unenviable situation in the region. Same with the enemies of Hezballah in Lebanon. There will be NO or zero tolerance for their presence if their threat is existential. There will be no Doha accord to save them. It will be a full blown war and it must end with a victor.
    We agree the probability for an imminent war between the US and Iran is not high. But say it does happen, I am interested in knowing if HA would automatically engage against the US in Lebanon by for example attacking its embassy and other soft targets in lack of military ditto, when Lebanon is not part of that war. And if so happens, what do you figure are the consequences of such unwise move on Lebanon?
     
    Rafidi

    Rafidi

    Legendary Member
    We agree the probability for an imminent war between the US and Iran is not high. But say it does happen, I am interested in knowing if HA would automatically engage against the US in Lebanon by for example attacking its embassy and other soft targets in lack of military ditto, when Lebanon is not part of that war. And if so happens, what do you figure are the consequences of such unwise move on Lebanon?
    If I answer these questions, I would assume the title of spokesman for the concerned parties. And I am not. We have to wait and see. Or you'd have to ask SHN and Donald Trump. I really don't know.
     
    My Moria Moon

    My Moria Moon

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    If I answer these questions, I would assume the title of spokesman for the concerned parties. And I am not. We have to wait and see. Or you'd have to ask SHN and Donald Trump. I really don't know.
    Hey, we're on a forum, just expressing personal opinions. I'm interested in yours, but "I don't know" is a fair answer too ;)
     
    My Moria Moon

    My Moria Moon

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    Orange Room Supporter
    So guys, this scenario is already here. And the question remains: Will HA retaliate in Lebanon against American interests, if ordered by Iran?
    And what consequences shall a retaliation bring on us, at these extremely difficult times we are enduring?
     
    AtheistForYeezus

    AtheistForYeezus

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    So guys, this scenario is already here. And the question remains: Will HA retaliate in Lebanon against American interests, if ordered by Iran?
    And what consequences shall a retaliation bring on us, at these extremely difficult times we are enduring?
    Do not underestimate the greaseball's recklessness. (I'm sure you know who I'm referring to. Ma tkhallineh fout bi le3bit asemeh plz)
     
    Picasso

    Picasso

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    Orange Room Supporter
    So guys, this scenario is already here. And the question remains: Will HA retaliate in Lebanon against American interests, if ordered by Iran?
    And what consequences shall a retaliation bring on us, at these extremely difficult times we are enduring?
    This is the right question that the Lebanese should be asking HA.

    The below link would shed the light clearly on what HA is ready to do when Iran decides.


    1983 Beirut barracks bombings
     
    HalaMadrid

    HalaMadrid

    Active Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    So guys, this scenario is already here. And the question remains: Will HA retaliate in Lebanon against American interests, if ordered by Iran?
    And what consequences shall a retaliation bring on us, at these extremely difficult times we are enduring?
    If ordered by Iran is a little simplistic in my view. I think all evidence points to Nasrallah being a decisionmaker with respect to HA actions in Lebanon and Syria. This has to be looked at from the perspective of what Nasrallah's calculus would be of the relative benefits to doing so for HA + internal politics. I would think the answer is the costs of any such retaliation would outweigh the benefits (depending on what the retaliation is), but I could be projecting here. The question of could there be retaliation on israeli interests is a different one though.
     
    N

    Nonpartisan

    New Member
    If they do, Hassan will be a walking target. He already is, the only difference this time, he’ll have a bullseye in his ass. It’s funny how some people think that the US will sit idle if something happens. Iran is like a little chihuahua. Bark, bark and bark. Sure he’ll bite at some point but always remember the size of it. I can’t wait to read diehards Hizballah fans flexing muscles. What are you gonna do? Launch a war on Israel? I’ll be sipping whisky on my rooftop watching the South burn.
     
    Rafidi

    Rafidi

    Legendary Member
    And some people still shy away from referring to Hizbullah as terrorists... Mainly FPM and the likes.
    You do not think Trump is a terrorist for carrying out an assassination attack against both Iranian and Iraqi figures on Iraqi soil. The US army is supposed to be guests in Iraq and not terrorists targeting Iraqis; Iraqis that fought ISIS. Your definition of terrorists is very unashamedly stupid.

    And Mr @proIsrael-nonIsraeli who likes to spread propaganda that Israehell only sits on the defensive forgets the facts that the campaign against the PMF was started by Israehell. Israehell implicated the United States in this mess and campaign against Iran and Iranian allied Iraqi forces in Iraq. Israehell repeatedly targeted the PMF, without the PMF being an active force or enemy targeting Israehell. The Iraqis then held the US responsible for the Israehelli aggression, since the US has control over Iraq's airspace. You can't go into another man's house and be targeting members of his family with slaps and imagine you won't be resisted. Israehell started the campaign of targeting the Iraqis.

    And truthfully, as much as I feel sympathy for Soleimani today, I feel more sympathy for al-Muhandis. Al-Muhandis was killed by a military that was supposedly invited into his own country by his own government. This is the reason the US must not remain in Iraq for a second. The Iraqi parliament must ask the US to leave or face resistance by the Iraqi forces, including the Iraqi army. Iraq is a rich country. It doesn't need American military aid to build a modern army.

    The presence of the US army in Iraq is not to train any Iraqi army or act like Caritas. The US is in Iraq to steal oil: that was Trump's explicit objective during his campaign. "Secure the oil" and "let them pay half a trillion for liberating Iraq", he repeatedly said. The US is in Iraq too to prevent Iraq from patronizing China. Abdul Mehdi signed half a trillion deals with China in Beijing and then hell broke loose and he was forced to resign. Abdul Mehdi should be reelected as PM.

    It is time for the Iraqi Shia leaders to act maturely and understand the dangers and stop their childish stupidity.
     
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    Resign

    Resign

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    logically speaking, given the current situation in Lebanon
    Iran/hezbollah's best interest is to stay out of this if they want to retain any of their already shaken popularity in Lebanon.

    if they're going to hit anything it'll be in Iraq
    there are 5000 US troops there
     
    Rafidi

    Rafidi

    Legendary Member
    If ordered by Iran is a little simplistic in my view. I think all evidence points to Nasrallah being a decisionmaker with respect to HA actions in Lebanon and Syria. This has to be looked at from the perspective of what Nasrallah's calculus would be of the relative benefits to doing so for HA + internal politics. I would think the answer is the costs of any such retaliation would outweigh the benefits (depending on what the retaliation is), but I could be projecting here. The question of could there be retaliation on israeli interests is a different one though.
    I do not think Iran "orders" Hezballah to start wars in the manner of command.

    I do not think too Hezballah will attack Israehell at this point. Depending on what the Iranian response would be and then, how the US might react would determine if we are in for a wider regional conflict that might see Hezballah attack Israehell. If the Iranians respond and the US swallows their pride, and it ends there, then its over. But if the US chooses to escalate and it drags into a tit for tat affair or it ends up in a full blown war where Iran is under full attack, dont expect Lebanon to remain quiet. Dont expect most countries in the Levant and the Gulf to remain quiet.

    I think the Iranian response would come for certain and it would be a big and manifest blow but it won't be in Lebanon for a start. It could be in Iraq, in the Gulf, in Afghanistan, in Central Asia, in Palestine, in Syria or somewhere else. The battle is already won in Lebanon. Iran's allies have a majority in parliament and they act with an independent mind. So there is no need to destabilize Lebanon.
     
    Resign

    Resign

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    I do not think Iran "orders" Hezballah to start wars in the manner of command.

    I do not think too Hezballah will attack Israehell at this point. Depending on what the Iranian response would be and then, how the US might react would determine if we are in for a wider regional conflict that might see Hezballah attack Israehell. If the Iranians respond and the US swallows their pride, and it ends there, then its over. But if the US chooses to escalate and it drags into a tit for tat affair or it ends up in a full blown war where Iran is under full attack, dont expect Lebanon to remain quiet. Dont expect most countries in the Levant and the Gulf to remain quiet.

    I think the Iranian response would come for certain and it would be a big and manifest blow but it won't be in Lebanon for a start. It could be in Iraq, in the Gulf, in Afghanistan, in Central Asia, in Palestine, in Syria or somewhere else. The battle is already won in Lebanon. Iran's allies have a majority in parliament and they act with an independent mind. So there is no need to destabilize Lebanon.
    What are you on lol
    If Hezbollah decides to escalate Lebanon remains neutral
    Take your troops and go fight your sectarian war in Najaf
    Nobody cares about Iran
     
    HalaMadrid

    HalaMadrid

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    I do not think Iran "orders" Hezballah to start wars in the manner of command.
    This is what i meant by "orders" being simplistic. I don't think the relationship can be reduced in such a way.
     
    AtheistForYeezus

    AtheistForYeezus

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    You do not think Trump is a terrorist for carrying out an assassination attack against both Iranian and Iraqi figures on Iraqi soil. The US army is supposed to be guests in Iraq and not terrorists targeting Iraqis; Iraqis that fought ISIS. Your definition of terrorists is very unashamedly stupid.
    I said in a previous post that despite So-dead-mani's role in fighting ISIS, his attempts at destabilizing the region by arming radical Shiite groups and using Iraq and Lebanon for his proxy wars against Israel and the USA far outweigh his positives. Iranians have been sowing sectarian strife in the region for years and it's time someone put these [***] in their place.
     
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