Will HA retaliate against American interests in Lebanon?

Lebmonage

Lebmonage

Legendary Member
What are you on lol
If Hezbollah decides to escalate Lebanon remains neutral
Take your troops and go fight your sectarian war in Najaf
Nobody cares about Iran
We aren't going anywhere. Lebanon is our country and it is what we want that will happen. You can join Soueid and Daou to wail on Twitter and nothing more. And if you push your luck too hard, you will be asking for trouble in Lebanon. The time of restraint and playing "the wise guy" will end in Lebanon, if push comes to shove. Let our stupid enemies be the ones to play wise and be calculative.
 
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    williamazar

    Active Member
    I do not think Iran "orders" Hezballah to start wars in the manner of command.

    I do not think too Hezballah will attack Israehell at this point. Depending on what the Iranian response would be and then, how the US might react would determine if we are in for a wider regional conflict that might see Hezballah attack Israehell. If the Iranians respond and the US swallows their pride, and it ends there, then its over. But if the US chooses to escalate and it drags into a tit for tat affair or it ends up in a full blown war where Iran is under full attack, dont expect Lebanon to remain quiet. Dont expect most countries in the Levant and the Gulf to remain quiet.

    I think the Iranian response would come for certain and it would be a big and manifest blow but it won't be in Lebanon for a start. It could be in Iraq, in the Gulf, in Afghanistan, in Central Asia, in Palestine, in Syria or somewhere else. The battle is already won in Lebanon. Iran's allies have a majority in parliament and they act with an independent mind. So there is no need to destabilize Lebanon.
    Why i should not expect lebanon to be quiet.
    And we label them as Iranian agents , they don’t understand.
    And don’t expect others in Lebanon who prefer US over IRAN to stay quiet by this logic...
     
    W

    williamazar

    Active Member
    We aren't going anywhere. Lebanon is our country and it is what we want that will happen. You can join Soueid and Daou to wail on Twitter and nothing more. And if you push your luck too hard, you will be asking for trouble in Lebanon. The time of restraint and playing "the wise guy" will end in Lebanon, if push comes to shove. Let our stupid enemies be the ones to play wise and be calculative.
    Hehe terrorist and mafia style... we decide and decide for all lebanon...
    Your time is coming ya kbirrrr
     
    Resign

    Resign

    Well-Known Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    We aren't going anywhere. Lebanon is our country and it is what we want that will happen. You can join Soueid and Daou to wail on Twitter and nothing more. And if you push your luck too hard, you will be asking for trouble in Lebanon. The time of restraint and playing "the wise guy" will end in Lebanon, if push comes to shove. Let our stupid enemies be the ones to play wise and be calculative.

    Fine by me
    If you want to bring back 1980s be my guest
    Take liberty in the fate of our country
    I will personally cement the wall that will separate the free area from the rest of the country and invite @Nonpartisan for a bottle of scotch
     
    Lebmonage

    Lebmonage

    Legendary Member
    I said in a previous post that despite So-dead-mani's role in fighting ISIS, his attempts at destabilizing the region by arming radical Shiite groups and using Iraq and Lebanon for his proxy wars against Israel and the USA far outweigh his positives. Iranians have been sowing sectarian strife in the region for years and it's time someone put these towelheads in their place.
    It isn't Iranians that have been sowing sectarian strife. It is America's stupid, intolerant, oppressive Takfiri Wahhabi allies that spread sectarian strife. To the average Wahhabi, a Shia has no religious freedom or human rights. A Shia should shut up and say nothing and do nothing and be nothing. This has been official policy right back in history through the Sunni caliphates. It didn't start with the 1979 Iranian revolution. The Iranian revolution gave the Shia in the region the moral support and backing that they never had in history. It first manifested in Lebanon. So while you want to blame Iran for empowering Shias in their respective countries, you shouldn't forget that if the Sunni governments and despots in the region weren't sectarian and extremist, Iran won't have had the chance to penetrate those countries and their societies. If those countries treated their citizens, irrespective of faith, fairly and justly, Iran won't have been able to spot the cracks and penetrate.

    Look at how Shias are treated in Saudi Arabia. Sunnis are treated way better in Iraq. Yet, some idiots would blame Iran or Nuri al Maliki for Sunni extremism in Iraq that lastly manifested itself through the creation of ISIS. They even forget that Takfiri attacks targeting Shia civilians started way before Maliki. Why didn't Shias in Saudi create a Shia version of ISIS and then blame Saudi govt oppressive policies? Because our faith is not a Takfiri oriented faith that promotes bloodshed and destruction of innocent people from other faiths.

    The western world, and imperial countries need to recalculate their policies. We aren't anymore in the 12th century or in the 18th century, when they would negotiate and strike deals with oppressive Sunni rulers that are capable of silencing the rest of their populations. The Shia ideology itself is built on rationality and freedom of thought. You can't impose foreign policies on populations like it used to be done in the past. Times have changed.
     
    proIsrael-nonIsraeli

    proIsrael-nonIsraeli

    Legendary Member
    You do not think Trump is a terrorist for carrying out an assassination attack against both Iranian and Iraqi figures on Iraqi soil. The US army is supposed to be guests in Iraq and not terrorists targeting Iraqis; Iraqis that fought ISIS. Your definition of terrorists is very unashamedly stupid.

    And Mr @proIsrael-nonIsraeli who likes to spread propaganda that Israehell only sits on the defensive forgets the facts that the campaign against the PMF was started by Israehell. Israehell implicated the United States in this mess and campaign against Iran and Iranian allied Iraqi forces in Iraq. Israehell repeatedly targeted the PMF, without the PMF being an active force or enemy targeting Israehell. The Iraqis then held the US responsible for the Israehelli aggression, since the US has control over Iraq's airspace. You can't go into another man's house and be targeting members of his family with slaps and imagine you won't be resisted. Israehell started the campaign of targeting the Iraqis.

    And truthfully, as much as I feel sympathy for Soleimani today, I feel more sympathy for al-Muhandis. Al-Muhandis was killed by a military that was supposedly invited into his own country by his own government. This is the reason the US must not remain in Iraq for a second. The Iraqi parliament must ask the US to leave or face resistance by the Iraqi forces, including the Iraqi army. Iraq is a rich country. It doesn't need American military aid to build a modern army.

    The presence of the US army in Iraq is not to train any Iraqi army or act like Caritas. The US is in Iraq to steal oil: that was Trump's explicit objective during his campaign. "Secure the oil" and "let them pay half a trillion for liberating Iraq", he repeatedly said. The US is in Iraq too to prevent Iraq from patronizing China. Abdul Mehdi signed half a trillion deals with China in Beijing and then hell broke loose and he was forced to resign. Abdul Mehdi should be reelected as PM.

    It is time for the Iraqi Shia leaders to act maturely and understand the dangers and stop their childish stupidity.
    What's "PMF"?
     
    W

    williamazar

    Active Member
    It isn't Iranians that have been sowing sectarian strife. It is America's stupid, intolerant, oppressive Takfiri Wahhabi allies that spread sectarian strife. To the average Wahhabi, a Shia has no religious freedom or human rights. A Shia should shut up and say nothing and do nothing and be nothing. This has been official policy right back in history through the Sunni caliphates. It didn't start with the 1979 Iranian revolution. The Iranian revolution gave the Shia in the region the moral support and backing that they never had in history. It first manifested in Lebanon. So while you want to blame Iran for empowering Shias in their respective countries, you shouldn't forget that if the Sunni governments and despots in the region weren't sectarian and extremist, Iran won't have had the chance to penetrate those countries and their societies. If those countries treated their citizens, irrespective of faith, fairly and justly, Iran won't have been able to spot the cracks and penetrate.

    Look at how Shias are treated in Saudi Arabia. Sunnis are treated way better in Iraq. Yet, some idiots would blame Iran or Nuri al Maliki for Sunni extremism in Iraq that lastly manifested itself through the creation of ISIS. They even forget that Takfiri attacks targeting Shia civilians started way before Maliki. Why didn't Shias in Saudi create a Shia version of ISIS and then blame Saudi govt oppressive policies? Because our faith is not a Takfiri oriented faith that promotes bloodshed and destruction of innocent people from other faiths.

    The western world, and imperial countries need to recalculate their policies. We aren't anymore in the 12th century or in the 18th century, when they would negotiate and strike deals with oppressive Sunni rulers that are capable of silencing the rest of their populations. The Shia ideology itself is built on rationality and freedom of thought. You can't impose foreign policies on populations like it used to be done in the past. Times have changed.
    We don’t ****ing care of this inter islamic war....
    All I care is lebanon and Christians if you dont believe in Lebanon..
    Remember we Christians in Lebanon are worse than Jew...
    We can ally with the devil if needed
     
    Jorje

    Jorje

    Legendary Member
    We don’t ****ing care of this inter islamic war....
    All I care is lebanon and Christians if you dont believe in Lebanon..
    Remember we Christians in Lebanon are worse than Jew...
    We can ally with the devil if needed
    And always end up eating crow. Given the history, you really shouldn't be boasting...
     
    Genius

    Genius

    Legendary Member
    I doubt they will do any moves from lebanon. Their popularity even among the shias is questionable. And they lost all support in other sects except some funny fpmers .

    And iran will not retaliate herself. The mercenaries most likely in iraq and Yemen will carry on the mission.

    But again who knows, a culture of war and death is not always predictable
     
    Jorje

    Jorje

    Legendary Member
    Anyways, my guess is that Iran will try to involve the US in more quagmires, with lots of US deaths and embarrassment for Trump at home. Iraq is an obvious place, but Lebanon/Yemen also are quite tempting.

    It really looks like a race to the bottom. The bottom being an all out war.

    I mean, Trump's "official" strategy is to bring Iran to the table. See how that is working out...
     
    My Moria Moon

    My Moria Moon

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    This is what i meant by "orders" being simplistic. I don't think the relationship can be reduced in such a way.
    Money always rules.. and issues orders.
    If the very founders, military trainers and advisors, military equippers and financiers of HA, and who also happen to be HA's supreme spiritual leaders, ask (order) HA leadership in Lebanon for specific "jump" action, do you not think that the expected answer would be "how high?"

    Remember, HA's yearly budget is calculated in Iranian money. I do not dispute the element of relationship courtesy, the Iranians are known to master eloquence and utter diplomacy and relationship respect. Any "order" to sayyed Nasrallah would be of the kindest request that can't be misunderstood.
     
    HalaMadrid

    HalaMadrid

    Active Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Money always rules.. and issues orders.
    If the very founders, military trainers and advisors, military equippers and financiers of HA, and who also happen to be HA's supreme spiritual leaders, ask (order) HA leadership in Lebanon for specific "jump" action, do you not think that the expected answer would be "how high?"

    Remember, HA's yearly budget is calculated in Iranian money. I do not dispute the element of relationship courtesy, the Iranians are known to master eloquence and utter diplomacy and relationship respect. Any "order" to sayyed Nasrallah would be of the kindest request that can't be misunderstood.
    Sure money rules. But Iran wants that investment to be successful and success isn't "you say how high when I say jump even if that risks the destruction of my investment." It's the survival of the investment and its adaption to changing circumstances as well as its ability to protect Iranian interests internationally. Those are reasons why I think the relationship has evolved from a pure proxy (80s and 90s) into a more symbiotic one. Nasrallah's judgment on what will and will not destabilize Lebanon and will or will not risk HA's position in the country is taken very seriously in Tehran (I'd argue so too with his judgment on Syria). That's why any measure of what HA's actions in Lebanon will be should be seen through his perspective and not purely Tehran's, despite the money (or perhaps because of the money). It's more than courtesy, I'm not just talking about the undertones of the commands. It's precisely because it's existential to the survival of Khamenei's regime and HA in Lebanon and regionally that it's not a purely "do as I say" relationship. I've no illusions that if SHN does something to directly undermine Tehran, he and HA will be treated in the way you describe. But this isn't that kind of situation.
     
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